I think that's harsh. He wasn't any worse than J.P. France and nobody is screaming to trade him or send him to AAA ( except maybe me) Graveman3.12 ERA / 4.88 FIP /.329 ob%/23.4 k% France 3.83 ERA / 4.66 FIP /.322 ob% / 17.4% k% He was not GOOD but he was not "hot garbage". He was perfectly serviceable 5th or 6th best bullpen arm.
Which is his right, but there aren't a bunch of teams lining up to give a 35 year old reliever a multi-year contract for more than what he opted out of.
yes, Graveman has been an above average reliever for the past 3 seasons. Though his metrics have been trending in the wrong direction during those 3 seasons, i.e. his K%, BB%, and HR%. Could have been the problem with his shoulder, he will find the 2025 market bad for him though, because shoulder injuries are now seen as worse than TJ.
The teams strength has been their pen. They've now lost Neris + Graveman + Maton + Stanek. They also have quite a few SP who wore down last year because they hit career highs in innings. Brown 155 ('23) Javier 162 ('23) France 155 ('23) Urquidy 164 ('22) They also will have a 41 year old JV. They'll have the depth to go to a six man rotation, which should help them monitor these young pitchers innings (as well as JV) so they don't wear down during Sept/Oct. However, these guys (outside of Framber + JV) don't go deep into games which means having a reliable pen (with depth) will be critical. The only dependable arms in the pen in this juncture is Pressly + Abreu. Hopefully Montero bounces back to '22 form but that's a huge if. Saying "we're fine" with all of these unproven arms is wishful thinking. Unless they trade a player(s) to free up some cash to potentially use to address the pen I just don't see any significant move that Brown could make being they're right up against the luxury tax. Let's be honest here, even though Crane has said he's willing to go over the tax for the right player it isn't going to happen. His track record says otherwise and when they've won two WS not having to do so he's got it in his mind that he doesn't need to go over the luxury tax to win it all again. This streak isn't going to go on and on and on and they've got a great core over the next two years so why not go above the tax to address the pen? After '25 more then likely JV is gone as is Tuck, Framber, Abreu, Pressly, and Montero (Bregman and Graveman after this year). That's a lot of money coming off the books. Also the hope is that McCullers and Garcia come back in July but there's no guarantee how effective they'll be. Without at least two more reliable arms in the pen this team as assembled isn't winning the WS.
Crane has known about this. WE are just now finding out, but Crane and Dana aren't being surprised today
Exactly what the front office thought last season regarding their starting pitchers, didn't work out.
No. Teams can recoup some actual dollars if they had insurance on a player, but there is no relief in terms of CBT calculations.
They didn't know he would need surgery. I don't know for sure when that changed, but multiple doctors said for him to just let it rest and rehab. At this point I will be curious to see what they decide to do. I trust Brown and his staff's ability to judge talent, but realistically they will need another proven reliever and possibly two. They always figured they could address part of their issues at the deadline if a big move worthy of the tax did not materialize for Crane. I personally appreciate that Neris is a gamer, but I don't trust him - I would rather trade for a reliever or maybe add someone like Moore. The Astros passed on Suter because they questioned the upside against top tier offenses - but how many of these guys left fit the bill? There is Robert Stephenson but he wants to be paid like a near closer. Honestly, there are a lot of guys still out there and a few potentially solid ones may sign for little money.
My kind of “final answer” for guessing what I thought Houston would actually do this offseason was Caratini, Matt Moore, and Joc Pederson in free agency, trading Urquidy, and extending Altuve. Secondary to that was signing James Paxton or Yariel Rodriguez or Josh Hader, but only if the price was at the point the FO believed it to be an extremely good value, rendering it unlikely. All of that is still possible, although it looks like money might get in the way on some of it.
This... But Dana Brown stated on the record that he knew this team was light on pitching going into the 2023 season. As Nook stated, I was expecting Graveman to be the 7th inning guy. That is one of the main reasons why they traded for him last year to replace Neris. I think the team believes Montero can round back into form for 2024. The contract Crane gave him was terrible... I'm not high on bringing back Neris. There were already question marks when Houston initially signed him, but he did very well in 2022. We saw late in 2023 and in the playoffs that Neris was starting to unravel. I just don't see any way of them going into the season without signing someone.
Signing Neris would be doing what they did with Montero; winning a bet then doubling down. The odds don’t favor that move.
