Those claiming that WAR is linear and the be all end all - got to see the real market value of players like Straw and Meyers. Kevin Kiermaier was a 4 WAR centerfielder last year and just signed a one year deal for $10,000,000. The DWAR for some positions and players are off - and that includes centerfield. It’s also the reason the Astros received little interest for Meyers this Winter, even when seriously shopping him. I am fine with Jake getting a chance to start in center if Diaz and Abreu hit.
Kiermaier put up 2.2 fwar last season, and he’s in his mid 30s. His contract seems right in line with his age, injury history, and 2024 projection of 1.3 fwar. I don’t think Meyers’ market was tepid because teams don’t value defense, I think it was because he’s been oft-injured. That said, there’s still quite a bit of inconsistency and variability in defensive war calculations so I agree it’s not the end all be all.
Dusty playing Maldy every game and benching Chas for 2 games in the ALCS is probably what cost us that series. 2 guys well over .800 OPS watching from the bench as we lose.
And honestly, I’m just glad Dusty is ****ing gone. Team gets a new start hopefully without a manager who worships himself.
The 2019 team was the best hitting team I have ever seen. I clearly acknowledge that it's highly unlikely, but the 2024 team has a small chance to be just as good. C (91 wRC+ in 19): Diaz had 127 wRC+ last year, and 170 in 187 PA as a catcher. Caratini had 94 wRC+ last year, so this position should be better. Say 85% 1b (123 wRC+ in 19): Abreu had a down year, but after addressing the back injury he finished with 128 wRC+ the final 6 weeks of the season and also great in the playoffs. Even with poor overall 2023 numbers he has average 117 over the past 3 years which is where I expect him to be. If Diaz is an occasional backup that would help this position. It's unlikely it outperforms 2019 but there is a slight chance. Say 10% 2b(130 wRC+ in 2019): Altuve had an ok season but nothing special (for him) at 137. It is very likely that he does better in 2024, coming off of a 154 season so it will come down to him staying healthy. Say 65%? 3b(136 wRC+ in 2019): Alex was amazing in 2019 at 167, but when he wasn't in there the position suffered. I don't see him repeating that season, but he was at 156 in the 2nd half last year and it's a contract season. I think there is a solid chance he could beat the 136 if he does not have a bad start and if he stays healthy that could drive the overall 3b numbers to beat 2019. Say 30%? SS(143 wEC+ in 2019): This is the position with basically no chance. Correa had a great 142 wRC+ but missed half the season. Bregman and Aledmys Diaz (118) filled in and the production did not miss a beat. Pena is a perfectly good SS but 110 would be great in 2024 (106 in 2nd half 2023, 96 overall). Say 5% ? LF(134 wRC+ in 2019): Brantley was the primary starter and had an all star year. This will probably be a very good position in 2024 as it's most likely 2/3-3/4 Chas (133 overall and 143 as LF in 2023) and 1/4-1/3 Yordan (170 overall and 181 as LF). Say 75% ? CF(128 wRC+ in 2019): This position was primarily split between Marisnick (85 overall and 89 as CF in 309 PA) and (Springer (155 overall and 163 as CF in 300 PA). Am I the only one who sees an eerie similarity here? Meyers (88 overall and 91 as a CF) is tentatively scheduled to get the bulk of the playing time. He was actually 117 from 4/1-6/10 last season so there is hope. Overall this position will depend more on how much time Chas sees here though. Say 25% ? RF(99 wRC+ in 2019): the only position other than catcher that was below average in 2019 was because Reddick (92) did not have a good year. Tucker should sleepwalk to a better season. Say 95% ? DH (142 wRC+ in 2019): Yordan's rookie year was amazing, but he only had 328 PA. Brantley (113) was OK but not in the same class and Tyler White (66) had the 3rd most PA really dragging the overall numbers down. In 2024 there is little question Yordan should obliviate that 142 number, but how much will he be in LF? Who will DH when he is? Yainer Diaz could he great but needs to improve on his 57 wRC+ as a DH last year. Say 50% ? What do you guys think?
I think we can safely say that the Astros will never go over the cap again unless it’s a Unicorn that falls into the teams lap.
We will never in our lifetime see a Houston Astros team this good again. Astros were so close to going to 5 straight WS from 2019-2023. Crazy how this team lost 8 home games in 2019 WS, 2023 ALCS.
I disagree. I expect them to be over the cap at least twice in the next 5-6 years. I just think it's bound to happen. My prediction is: 2025 and 2028.
I think it’s sort of interesting to look at it by position like that, but with all the mix and match I can’t say I really care that much about by position- I’d probably be more likely to want to look at it by lineup- but whatever. I think your instinct is right that the offense is going to be awesome, and I think your instinct is right that we need a platoon OF that hits RHP well to be absolutely dominant instead of merely great. if we stay healthy we are going to kick ass and take names.
I enjoyed the long read. The Astros have a strong lineup with a potential to be amongst the best we’ve seen in a while.
