The odds of winning a World Series likely go down each year for the next 6 years ONLY IF players continue to leave as free agents without using their value to replenish the talent in the system first. You talk like it's a foregone conclusion and can't be helped. It's a decision not an inevitability.
You can’t win a world series unless you make the playoffs, and if you make the playoffs you have a real shot to win it regardless of if you won 110 games or if you snuck in with 83. The best team is only a slight favorite in a short series as we’ve found out to our detriment a couple times. I think this team makes the playoffs with or without Framber in 24 and 25. If what you get for him makes us way more likely to make the playoffs in 26-28 then I’m ok with a deal. You better be right though about who you are getting back if you move him.
Maton, Neris, and Stanek pitched 33.9% of the relief innings last year. As of now their replacements are some combination of Dylan Coleman, Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Shawn Dubin, Joel Kuhnel, Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski, Oliver Ortega, Bennett Sousa, Forrest Whitley, and some other guys that were minor league signings. Montero had a bad year and Graveman is coming off a shoulder injury. Sorry... you can't talk me out of being highly concerned about all that.
Teams win the world series with mediocre middle relief constantly (seemingly more often than not in recent years). If that's our big problem next season we're gonna be golden.
Well, hell, let's follow that model. I'm sure there's a team that's won it with a mediocre offense too. So let's just trade everyone and run out some mediocre pitching and offense and try to win that way.
If this were true, it's unlikely the Astros wouldn't have made the ALCS each of the last 7 years and done no worse than 1 game from the WS each of the last 5. The Diamondbacks or Marlins didn't have only a "slightly" lesser chance to win the WS than the Astros, Braves, or Dodgers. But if you are right, then all your complaining this past year about the Astros not doing every little thing to maximize their chances of winning last year was pretty weird.
It wasn't bad... but it wasn't like last year was just some bad luck or a bunch of guys having down years either... Javier has never pitched an entire season's worth of innings... short offseason or not. There was legit concern in 2001 by the previous front office about his ability to hold up as a starter, thus he was a reliever nearly that whole season. That went out the window this year once he signed his extension and he played true to form (started out red hot, had a dead arm and pitched through it BADLY with some extra off days and extra guys in the rotation... then came on stronger as the arm recovered). Hunter Brown is young and still finding his way both in terms of repertoire and stamina... but there are legit concerns from the current front office that he may end up as a reliever due to his sharp decline in peripherals/metrics when guys see him 2nd or 3rd times through the lineup. JV had a better year than people realize... and if he somehow has another all-star/cy young campaign (would be his 3rd straight as an Astro when pitching the full season), would confirm that he truly is ageless and puts him in the Nolan Ryan category of " forget his age, pay him whatever, don't let him go elsewhere till he says he's done." Or he could have another slight regression (which still makes him a better starter than everybody on this staff not named Framber). I think we know who Urquidy is by now... including when he goes down with his annual shoulder inflammation. France/Bielak/Blanco... at least one of them will get a fair amount of starts next year. France did have a good run, despite his FIP warnings.. The same legit questions about the durability/depth/experience of the rotation for an entire year are the same as what was there last year... minus LMJ/Garcia for the first half of the season but plus JV. Brown all but shouted that they'd like to have another front line starter to hedge against Framber's mental state and JV's age. There is a good chance the rotation is a total mess if JV/Framber don't carry them.
I think it's become very obvious in recent years that the best team doesn't always win and therefore compiling a super team doesn't guarantee anything. The regular season is a grind that requires 30-40 players and luck to get through. Post season is completely different. A team with 3 great hitters and 3 great pitchers along with a bunch of average guys can win in the playoffs. Baseball is a game where a 100 win team has lost 38% of their games. Any team can beat any other team in a single game. With luck any team can beat any other team 2 of 3. The more talent you have, the better chance you have to win but the shorter the series the more luck is involved and the fewer impact players are needed. And even in 7 games luck can be very instrumental in determining who wins.
The key is predicting how long he remains a star. I want to gather as much information as possible to make that decision. If it looks like moving him is a good decision at the break you move him. This winter there is too much room for a mistake. Wait and see. If he dominates early consider trading McCullers instead.
Framber dominated the first half last year... and struggled after his ankle injury and ended the year poorly. Javier also started out strong last year before his arm went dead. How they start really means nothing. And nobody is trading anything of value for LMJ.
Most of those are gone after Spring training. None of them are likely to go to the playoffs either way Trading LMJ is for salary relief in my opinion. However, many people here are counting on him contributing in the second half of the upcoming season. His trade value may be much better than anticipated.
Most of those are gone after Spring training. None of them are likely to go to the playoffs either way.
And there is a chance that Javier comes back and pitches 160 innings at 2022 levels and is an all star. There is a chance Brown takes a big step up and becomes more consistent month to month and can be counted on to keep the team in games for 25+ starts. He needs to be the #4 on this team and that would be enough. It is also likely that when (if) McCullers does come back he pitches like a solid #2 starter worthy of a playoff spot. Then, if Framber and JV have typical seasons this staff would be very good but they would not need to carry them. My best guess: JV: 30% all star, 50% regression but still among best 50-60 SP in MLB, 10% bad, 10% injured and not a factor. Framber: 50% innings eating all star, 40% just ok but still top 4-5 on the team, 5% bad, 5% injured and not a factor. Javier: 20% dominant all star, 40% very good #3, 20% inconsistent starts make him pretty ordinary, 10% bad, 10% injured and not a factor. Brown: 10% all star, 20% exceeds expectations to good #2-3 level. 20% pretty solid and unspectacular, 20% holding on to #5 spot barely, 20% bad, 10% injured and not a factor. France: 5% takes step-up to unquestionably among 5 best starters on the team, 30% nothing special but dependable when called upon, 30% actively looking to upgrade him at trade deadline, 25% most of season in AAA (bad), 10% injured and not a factor. Urquidy: 5% takes step up to above average MLB starter, 25% solid contributor throughout the year, 50% keeping a spot on staff in some role with middling success, 20% injured enough of year to not be a factor. McCullers: 30% starts 10-12 games at all star level, 40% starts 10-12 games but is pretty ordinary, 10% is put in bullpen, 10% reinjures himself, 10% doesn't pith this year. Garcia: 10% 10-12 starts at #3-4 level, 20% 10-12 starts at #4-5 level, 50% pitches in bullpen, 10% reinjures himself, 10% does not return this year
Nothing has ever been guaranteed in any sport, evenmore so in baseball. Nevertheless, if I had the choice of being the 16-0 Patriots or the 10-6 Giants, I'd rather be the Patriots. I'd rather be the best team in baseball than the 7th or 12th best. Will it always work? No. Will it work better than aiming for mediocrity and luck? Absolutely. If the Astros' goal should be "let's just barely try to make the playoffs every year and hope we get lucky", they've been handling the entire last 10 years wrong.
There's no scenario that moving him at the break is going to happen. If he's doing awesome, there's no way a contending team is trading their ace mid-season. If he's sucking, you'd be trading him at a discount. The only reason to trade Framber (now) is if you project him to have a down season while everyone else doesn't. That likely is a scenario were they think Maldy was a key to his success or something of that sort.
The Astros need to be a 6-man staff next year. When we were a 6-man staff in 2021, we rode into the playoffs with the best pitching performance because all our guys were healthy and had plenty left in the tank. Last year, all our guys were falling apart due to Dusty overusing the entire staff by August.
The future isn't set in stone which is why I say odds. It is not set in stone that Framber can be traded and that it would help the championship odds, but you act like it is, but condemn me for making a much more reasonable conclusion about the future. The Astros are likely a great ****ing team next year such that odds are good that the vast majority of teams are worse next season and in 2026.
I apologize if I came across as condemning you. I certainly meant no disrespect. I merely enjoy the debate and discussion. In the end it doesn't matter because we will never know. The Astros are not trading him and whether that is right decision or not will be lost to the God of "what if. . . " I freely admit that Dana Brown and his staff are much more knowledgeable than me. All we can do is hope the Astros win regardless but I fear that 2026-2028 will be much like the early 2020s Angels - a few stars and nobody else dooms them to a bunch of 50/50 80ish win seasons and no playoff spots. And those stars' time with the team a big fat waste.
We just Tower our podcast to release Xmas and andrew got all up in his feels over this concern. I don’t think it’s too much of a worry. Crane strikes me as a guy who will tear it down again rather than be mediocre for half a decade. I hope anyway.
