Starting pitching is everything. We saw just last off season this fan bases presumption that they had “too much” starting pitching. it’s amazing that all of you are either falling under the same mistake in overvaluing all these other pitchers (“brown and Javier are going to be aces!”), or you’re just over obsessed with keeping mythical windows open that will eventually close (in some cases sooner when you trade one of your only true stud starting pitchers). You trade him when you either can’t compete next year or when you’re cheap.
There’s also way too much rewriting history in here. The biggest reason the Astros “reopened” the window after 2019 was the emergence of Framber/Urquidy/Javier/Garcia as legit starting pitching that emerged and propelled them in 2021 and 2022. 4 years later, only one of those guys is a legit Cy Young contender going into next year… while the others are either injured, half season pitchers, or have reached their potential. They have JV, Framber and a bunch of guys who could be great if it all falls in place, or could just mimic last year. I’m more excited about Garcia and LMJ being full time pitchers in 2025… pair that with Framber and that’s a more legit rotation than what they have going into 2024.
In my opinion having deep starting pitching throughout 162 games, and at least 4 healthy dependable SP and 3 RP with elite "stuff" in the post season. That said, starting pitching certainly isn't "everything" as you say. How did that work out in the 2005 World Series? I do not WANT to trade Framber. I think this team is better with him and he is without question the best most certain starting pitcher on this team. However, all pitchers are injuries waiting to happen. Eventually they all get hurt (even Nolan Ryan blew out his elbow in the end) and the more you count on a single one, the more likely you are to be sitting at home in October. If you force me to bet on which Astros SP has the most good starts this season, I am betting Framber all day long. If you force me to bet on who is better in the postseason in 2024 then its much more of a crapshoot. As for the window closing, OF COURSE I would like to keep it open. 2011-2013 were no fun at all. But look at the projected 2026-2028 rosters. It's not deep but has a few star players that mean adding 2-3 stars CAN keep accomplish that. Baseball is not basketball and a SP is not a starting QB either. Even the best one can't lead a team to a championship alone. Why would a team sacrifice the future for ANY SP if they could significantly improve for 4-5 years in the near future with minimal impact to the current year?
Don't think you ever trade Framber. He's our ace. Verlander can be a second. Would like to add a potential third from the Sox. If the Dodgers win 3 more games than the Astros in the Postseason. They are the champions.
You're all over the place now. I think you've become a caricature of yourself. I'd take the 2005 Astros elite pitching themselves to a World Series chance any day of the week. I'd take superior pitching over superior hitting every single time if I had to choose. Luckily they don't have to choose... they can have both for the next 2 years, largely because they had to trade their top prospects to get one valued starting pitcher back. 2011-2013 were necessary to rebuild an EMPTY farm system and stockpile high draft picks. Almost all of those high draft picks unprecdently hit... which is a huge reason why the Astros have had an unprecedented run of success (along with acquiring JV at the right time). To think these eras will just automatically renew themselves is complete and utter fantasy-land thinking. This is the best era ever. It won't be duplicated, it won't be topped. They got one unexpected extension on it via the development of young unheraled/undervalued international pitching (of which Framber is one of). If you comprehend all that, and understand what makes this team truly successful... and truly know what the rest of this pitching staff is without Astros-colored glasses, you'd want them to continue to optimize each and every year. And in a league without stud starting pitching... you don't trade stud starting pitchers when you have the expectation to contend.
People were making light of the "Woody Williams" type signings when the Astros downturn happened post 2005...
I just want to keep the rangers/M's from signing him. He seems to get one or two good starts against us every year.
I just think that simply trading Framber vs not trading him is not a complete thought and therefore doesn't have a right or wrong answer. I want the Astros to win in 2024 I want the Astros to win in 2026. How does Framber being an Astro in 2024 impact that? It's about how much it negatively effects 2024 and how much it positively effects 2026+
Just because this current run is unprecedented and was largely due to luck does not mean the Astros should just accept that it can't last forever and let it. Luhnow's vision was an organization without a window and was perpetually competitive. I think IF (and it's a big IF) the Astros could get a player who mitigates the 2024 loss of Framber somewhat while potentially adding 2 potential building blocks (the next Alex Bregman and Cristian Javier for 6+ seasons?) it is worth considering.
It absolutely could. That may not be in 2024 or 2025 (but certainly could be) But Framber could be traded for players who help the team win it in 2026, 2027, 2028, and/or 2029. I think the odds of the Astros winning a WS between now and 2029 are much better if he is traded for the right players than if he is kept for 2 years and allowed to walk.
If the primary goal is to win a World Series in 2024 then they MUST keep Framber. If the primary goal is to win at least 1 World Series in 2024 and/or 2025 they SHOULD keep Framber. If the primary goal is to win at least 1 World Series between 2024 and 2029 they SHOULD trade Framber. If the primary goal is to win multiple World Series between 2024-2029 then they MUST trade Framber.
The odds of winning a World Series likely goes down each year for the next 6 years. If this is believed, wins in 2024 and 2025 are worth more in championship odds than wins in 2026-2028. Trading Framber (wins in 2024 and 2025) for a similar amount of wins more evenly spread from 2024 through 2028 loses Astros odds of winning a World Series between 2024 and 2028. As such, trading Framber must not be done unless another team makes an idiotic trade. Regarding winning multiple rings, the biggest factor in increasing the odds is increasing the odds that one ring is won.
While I get peoples concerns, I think too many are being excessively pessimistic on our pitching outlook, pitching that wasn't even that bad last season. Framber and Javier encountered workload issues combined with a short offseason. Hunter Brown was a rookie and Verlander was in New York 2/3 of the year. LMJ and Garcia almost certainly will contribute at some point. I know people will roll their eyes saying that about LMJ, but he's not entering this season with an untreated injury waiting to happen like last year.
