I don’t think they’d be giving up. Trade him for prospects, sign another pitcher. Garcia and McCullers will be back at the all star break.
Framber is the only current Astro pitcher that has a chance of throwing 200 innings this year, and he's so far ahead of the rest of the pack. Ohtani and Glasnow could only dream of such durability.
I consider a Framber trade extremely unlikely but I agree that this would not be a bad strategy, especially if they feel really good about a 2nd/3rd tier FA like Yariel Rodriguez or James Paxton. The Reds seem like a potential fit for Valdez. A package of Cam Collier, Chase Petty, Sal Stewart, Matheu Nelson, and Edwin Arroyo would be pretty good.
If you're only ever looking 3-4 years ahead, you're also doomed to failure. Trading your chances to win in 2024 and 2025 so you might be better in 2026 or 2027 is nonsensical. Why would anyone trade away your #1 or #2 pitcher for this year's team to maybe help you down the line?
Then midseason everyone will be complaining about our lack of aces. You can't sign a player for better value than you're getting with Framber. If you want a player of his caliber, you're looking at $25-$30MM many year deal. Or you can sign a middle-tier player and be lacking an ace this year.
The point is not to sign for a better value. The point is to get a couple of top level prospects to extend the window and then backfill with a guy that can reasonably replace Framber. Then you get a bump from Hunter Brown and Urquidy coming back along with Javier hopefully rounding back into form. This direct path we are taking to the Carlos lee days worries me. There needs to be some outside the box thinking to change course. Brewers have a top 50 starting pitching prospect and 3rd baseman prospect that would likely be a reasonable request in exchange for Framber. Spend big on a free agent pitcher, let Bregman go after the season and replace him with the prospect. Let Verlander go in two years and hope the pitching prospect delivers. Of course it's a gamble, but I think the quickest way out of this hole in the minor leagues right now is to do this.
No - I asked and was told that the Astros will listen on anyone, but they have not brought up Valdez' name and do not intend to trade him. The White Sox asking price is and has been very high - which is why the Dodgers moved on to Glasnow. There are a couple other arms out there are well.
Trading him alone woukd not be giving up on 2024. There are trades out there that would still allow for the 2024 team to compete. Trade him for 2 young MLB ready players and a 45-50 grade SP prospect earlier this week I posted the Reds looking to compete and having excessive position players, especially infielders when suggesting a Tucker trade. Well they have an abundance of young unproven SP but no veteran TOR guy to lead the staff. They have been mentioned in just about every TOR pitcher available from Cease and Glasnow to Sonny Gray and even Seth Lugo. Clearly they want a veteran to upgrade the rotation. They also signed Nick Martinez this offseason filling a rotation spot. They have 5 young SP who are/were organizational top prospects and started for them at some point last year: Brandon Williamson (2022 #5 prospect) started 23g w/ 1.6 bWAR Graham Ashcraft (2022 #8) started 26g w/ 2.4 bWAR Andrew Abbott (2022 #13) started 21 w/ 2.7 bWAR Connor Phillips (current #5) started 5 games with lesser results but in only 5 starts. Lyon Richardson (current #14) also had poor results but in only 4 starts Hunter Green and Nick Lodolo were #1 and #2 55 grade prospects in 2022 who also started games and must he in the mix as well. On addition they have current #2 Rhett Lowder, #6 Chase Petty and #12 Ty Floyd who are still in the system. If the Reds want to trade for a veteran TOR starter, clearly they are expecting to include one or more of these pieces in the deal and there is not room in 2024 for all of them. The Astros could possibly get 2 of the starting pitchers- 1 MLB ready and 1 younger along with a young MLB ready position player. Let's say: Andrew Abbott, Chase Petty, and 3B prospect Noelvi Marte Abbott is a #4-5 guy now with #2-3 upside and 5 years of control. Petty is in AA and 1-2 years away but has #3 SP stuff and woukd be top 5 in Astros system. Marte made MLB debut as SS/3B last year and would be primary b/u for Bregman, Pena, and Altuve in 2024 and take over starting 3B in 2025. That's a huge haul but the SP market is very very high right now and since the Astros aren't shopping Framber that's what they could get.
Framber is better than Glasnow and Ohtani. He throws a lot of pitches, a lot of innings, can consistently go deep into games and is really good.
Readers Digest version. Could the Astros get: Andrew Abbott (25ys old LHSP) Reds 2022 #13 mlbpipeline and Fangraphs #70 overall). 8-6 3.87 ERA in 21gs in 2023. 5 yrs control. Chase Petty (20 yrs old RHSP) Reds current #6 mlbpipeline and #5 Fangraphs prospect currently in AA. Noelvi Marte (22 yrs old 3B/SS) Current Reds #1 and #23 overall and #2 3B prospect by mlbpipeline and team #1 and #64 overall Fangraphs. And if so should they?
Except you can't "backfill" one of the top or so pitchers in the league unless you're paying a boatload of money or are willing to drop your odds of winning this year in the hopes that maybe one of your new prospects helps you somewhere down the line. This team looks nothing like the late 2000's Astros. The path to Carlos Lee is desperately signing high-priced free agents on a declining team to stay relevant and refusing to trade star players once the team has already passed its point of contending. This team has done nothing like that. I don't want the team changing course from what has made it the most successful team in baseball the last 8 years: making smart acquisitions through FA and trade, keeping your stars for as long as you can but never overpaying, and finding gems throughout the minor league system.
I just don't see the value in trading a TOR, all-star level pitcher who's got 2 seasons of team control left when we're still a leading WS contender. Especially one that stays healthy and eats so many innings.
It's so weird to me. He's also the only innings-eater on the team. Verlander has worn down in recent seasons. Javier and Brown haven't shown the ability to throw lots of innings. France is a total unknown. Garcia/McCullers, if they even make it back, will be pretty limited. We just spent half of last season complaining about the need for another ace after letting Verlander go. And now people want to do it again?
So you're going to trade Framber for prospects and then trade prospects to replace Framber? The only reason I can see to do this is if you think Framber's success was tied to Maldonado and you think he's not going to be as good a pitcher going forward.
The value would be filling holes the team will have in 2025-2030 while maginally reducing the 2024 and possibly 2025 teams chances of winning. 2024: Framber 4.1 fWAR (Dubon 0.8) Abbott 2.5, Marte 1.8 fWAR Loss of 0.6 fWAR 2025: Framber 4.1 fWAR Abbott 2.5, Marte 3.0 Petty 0.5 fWAR Gain of 1.9 fWAR Marte gives Astros a legitimate 3B and 3 fWAR is probably 60% likely with under 2 fWAR 30% likely and 4+ 10% likely. Astros lose slightly for 1 season and Gain huge for 4-6 additional seasons. +
The team they have (and the players they have under contract) are World Series contenders this year and next year. Some of you are losing sight of this and want to trade away key players that would greatly diminish their opportunity to win it all the next two years in order to get prospects. Most prospects do NOT pan out. If you're so concerned about getting prospects for the future (at the expense of potentially winning another World Series over the next two yrs) why don't they just go ahead and trade away Altuve, Bregman, Framber, Tucker, JV, and others to get prospects to replenish the farm system because that's more important than winning a ring(s).
You can if you started developing his replacement 3-4 years ago and are confident in your ability to develop players to fill future needs. It is true that trading away one of your best pitchers only to pay full freight to replace him is foolish. It is not the trading away that is foolish, it is paying for a replacement because you have failed to look ahead when you had the chance.
