I love Framber and think he will age well But all pitchers are injury risks. $150M is a bad bad number. McCullers finished his arbitration years then signed for 5 yrs/ $85M when he would be a FA Sandy Alcantara, who I feel is a good comp to Framber, signed for 5 / $56 + an option to make it possible 6 / $74. Which covered his 3 arbitration seasons and 2-3 FA years. I would say that for ANY pitcher, 6 years is the max any team should commit. So Framber is worth twice what Alcantara got? His 2023 arb. Salary is $6.8 M. Let's say his extension is for 2024-2029 ages 30-35. Figure arbitration salaries 2 seasons $32M That leaves 4 yrs and $118M to get to $150M. $29.5M per season? I just don't see any way he gets to $20M AAV with 2 arbitration years left, much less $25M. I want him extended, but if 2 arb seasons are included, it needs to be 6 yrs or less and I can't see more than $110M. Actually even that would stun me.
so what is “the Right Deal” that you’re talking about? What player and what terms? Or does the Right Deal” really just mean “whatever deal Crane ultimately hands out is de facto ‘the Right Deal’ because good fans just presumptively agree with whatever the team does and shall not want the owner to spend into the luxury tax”?
It's worse than what you're saying. 3 ARB years left, about 40 million total payout let's say for easy math. So 3 more years at 110 million? No thank you. 7 years 130 million. That's it.
The longer Tucker waits the more expensive he gets I still think it's a long long shot Longest extension the Braves did was Riley's 10 yrs. Crane has said 6 is his max comfort level. Let's say they agree to split the difference and offer Tucker 8 years. The $5M decision this year will impact this. It reduces earnings and helps motivate to sign. Fingers crossed. Also could push him to ask for higher AAV in FA seasons to make up for millions lost during arb seasons. When the extension starts is key. 2023-2030 ages 26-33. Covers 3 arb and 5 FA seasons and leaves him more earning power after it ends. 8 yrs / $180 M 2024-2031 ages 27-34. Covers 2 arb and 6 FA seasons. Fewer cheap arb seasons and less earning power after it ends means more $$. 8 yrs / $205M 2025-2032 ages 28-35. Covers only 1 arb season and 7 FA seasons. Bad for both Astros and Tucker. Astros only get a single arb year to reduce the deal and Tucker is 36 as FA reducing his chances at another deal. 8 yrs / $240M Shorter deals won't be any more affordable as he will require higher AAV for giving up prime years without taking any older seasons. Expect $35M per FA season if the deal is 7 years or less. Example: play for $5M in 2023 then sign 6 yr deal for 24-29. Ages 27-32. $165M The time to sign Tucker was after 2020. Maybe he would have been "cheap" at $20M per FA year and $32M to cover his 5 remaining controlled seasons. 8 years and $92M -2028 would be amazing and may have been possible 2 years ago.
Framber should have a hard ceiling at 6/90. his arb could be worth 40 so that’s 3/50 in FA as a 33-35 year old ground ball pitcher. That’s pushing the envelope big time. I can’t conceive of 150M for him at his age and service time but if it was it better be for a 10 year deal and you just hope you get 6 decent years out of him and 4 where he’s good enough to be rostered.
New rules, Luis Garcia wind up is now illegal. From Athletic: "In particular, one of the game’s most unique deliveries technically runs afoul of the rule. Astros (https://theathletic.com/mlb/team/astros/) right-hander Luis Garcia famously “rocks the baby,” swinging his arms and taking steps forward and backward before raising his leg and moving down the mound, mechanics he favors (and that he developed on his own) purely for their repeatability. Now, he will have to adjust or face being frequently called for an automatic ball."
The calculation is close until we get to his 4 FA years. I'm valuing him as a TOR Pitcher @ $30M/yr or $120M with the 2 remaining ARB years. 28 vs 30 and 118 vs 120. And since the top 5 are all approaching to exceeding $40M/yr as FAs and I'm figuring out how to reach $150M total as has been reported, it works. Now if I consider that a reasonable asking price. It works. I don't necessarily agree, but it's not as far off as it first appears. I am a little creative in trying to get an extra Team Option year without a buyout when he's turning 36. I find it amusing that this time it's you trying to talk me down instead of the reverse. Usually the roles are reversed.
Well 6/90 is quite ridiculous. You might as well tell him to enjoy the free agent market in 3 years time. At least be reasonable.
That's a whole lot of hullabaloo for nothing. I only mentioned Bregman. I care little about extending Tucker. Let someone else overpay him.
So you think a frontline pitcher is only worth 16.5 million for his age 32-34 seasons? Where do you get this idea of "ground ball pitcher bad" like Framber is some junk thrower that's gonna fall off a cliff any day now. Castillo who signed a very friendly deal got 24 million AAV. Even LMJ who can't even pitch a full season was able to get 16 million. 7/135 sounds very reasonable to me. Maybe include an option year with a sizeable buyout that gives him more guarantees and us some upside if he ages well. Astros fans clearly just don't want to take any contract risks, and yet will complain when talent walks.
Every year of a Contract has risks. The longer the contract, the riskier the outlying years. Crane appears to be comfortable in the 1-6 year range and wants outlying years discounted. That is reasonable to me. The idea that every player's value should be judged on his best year and then multiplied by the length of the contract until they are 41-45 just seems ridiculous to me. But that's what 'some' owners are doing and driving up the market. I'm glad we have a very small percentage of our roster filled with Free Agents from other teams to keep us away from dead money.
This is not what owners are doing with long contracts. The length on the long contracts is an economics trick to save the owners money at present day costs as well as manipulating the luxury tax. It is also a way to rob money from the future so a team can maximize its wins now by not having to pay a player this year all that he's worth this year. Basically, if a team has near infinite money, long contracts make sense. If a team is going all in and is okay mortgaging the future, long contracts make sense. Teams unwilling to do long contracts are playing a tight financial game (i.e., they can spend money, but not sustain Top 5 payrolls too long) such that they can sustain success over having high peaks and low valleys.
Go look at the performance of extreme ground ball pitchers like Framber as they age. It’s freaking terrible. Right as he turns into a FA is the age 32 or 33 where they typically completely fall off a cliff. Maybe Framber will beat all those performances and be a totally and completely different guy, but that is bucking a ton of history. I’m on team extend almost everyone that’s a position player that has value- I just can’t see how this works out well at all, nor how this deal gets done.
I’m fine with all kinds of contract risks. I’d give Bregman another 5 years t the end of his deal right now. I’d do 3 more for Altuve right now I’d do a 10 year deal for Tucker I’d add 5 more to Yordan to make it 10 right now I’d do a 10 or 12 year deal with Peña right now 7 or 8 for Abreu 10 for Brown. 5 for Urquidy. 7 for Garcia. I’ve consistently maintained Framber was at the very bottom of my list- didn’t want to see him extended- was willing to do like 5/85 and that’s about it.
For a tie who wants to extend Framber or give him 150M you should really read this. If you give him that kind of money anyway you should have a blindfold and a cigarette ready. the funny thing is the article ends with Arietta and Hernandez are getting ready to test this (and then those guys immediately fell off a cliff). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/maybe-ground-ball-pitchers-actually-are-a-bad-bet/ for those too lazy to click and read the entire article: The ground-ball curve, though? The buckets average 600 innings and are closer to half the size of the “all” curve in most spots, and there are no missing ages. It certainly looks like James was right: right around 30 years old, ground-ball guys start to age worse. They add four runs to their peak RA/9 two years earlier than the average pitcher. The attrition is much worse, too: between 32 and 34 years old, 34% of all innings pitched leave the game, while 74% of all innings pitched by plus ground-ball pitchers disappear. That’s a startling number, actually. But look at the number of 30-year olds who reached qualified status with 50% ground-ball rate or higher last year. Only two of them will pitch next year. Expand the search to include pitchers about to turn thirty, and we start to see a fresh crop that will test the truism. Felix Hernandez and Jake Arrieta are most famously at the top of the heap, but the list is fascinating. Four years from now, we’re likely to be looking at two or three of these guys still pitching. Say it ain’t so.
He’s an above average starting pitcher or a 19 year closer waiting to happen. He’s really really really good and his frame and arm jump out as a guy who ought to be able to put up big innings.
