That hits my point about what the draft is. If that’s his career then he overperformed his pick at #28 or 30 or whatever it was.
I think you’re likely correct regarding total WAR, but I will say Greinke was elite for the back half of 2019 and 2020, and I won’t put it on the Astros for failing to predict 2020 being a pandemic shortened season. Rojas has performed better than I had expected but it may be the case that he’s been more lucky than good as his xwOBA - wOBA splits suggest.
Career wOBA 0.314 Career xwOBA 0.305 Greinke's FIPs were much lower than his xERAs as an Astro. If one based WAR on xERAs and xwOBA, I'd guess the gap would be closer. If Rojas produces WAR at xwOBA rates going forward, it isn't going to be close unless he gets injured. On the pandemic, Greinke's xERA numbers as an Astro and in 2020 likely suggest he wouldn't have produced enough for it to make a big difference considering Rojas still has 4 more years.
I should say the difference in wOBA and xwOBA over 1200 PAs does have a decent amount of value. I've been saying Chas should have played CF over Dubon for a while and the difference in their career wOBA is at 0.044 (an astronomical difference of 0.078 last year). Arguing with that big a difference makes things like just a 9 point difference seem negligible.
Can Jake Meyers re-establish himself? …Baker has never been a fan of incumbent center fielder Chas McCormick and only warmed up to playing him regularly last September. McCormick is far from a finished product, but he will enter spring as the presumed starter. Meyers is a more natural defender, and if he shows his pre-surgery form at the plate, a competition could emerge. Who is this spring’s surprise? …This spring, Baker might not need to travel far to find one. Outfielder Justin Dirden is perhaps the most heralded non-roster invitee on Houston’s spring training roster. A good showing should put him further on the major league radar. … Is Forrest Whitley in a position to contribute? Defense or offense behind Martín Maldonado? Barring injuries elsewhere, Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz will wage Houston’s only true spring training battle to back up Maldonado. Deciding who wins it might be no more complicated than this: defense or offense? If Baker and his coaching staff prefer defense, Lee is the choice. He regressed offensively last season while searching for more power but still possesses an elite throwing arm and is a far more advanced catcher than Diaz. Diaz is a bat-first prospect who is still raw at most of the finer points of catching. His throwing arm is above average, but he can sometimes struggle with accuracy, framing and blocking pitches. His ability to play first base and bat-to-ball skills as a pinch hitter make him more versatile than Lee. Does Dana Brown have a few more extensions in the works? Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker are the most obvious candidates, but neither is likely to accept a deal like Javier just signed. Both have two full seasons of established major league success, more than Javier at the time of his extension. Brown must also consider the futures of Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, both of whom have two more seasons under club control. Altuve said last season that he hopes to finish his career as an Astro. Bregman could be in the same scenario. Mega agent Scott Boras represents both players. Although he often prefers to take his clients to free agency, Boras negotiated Altuve’s first extension with the Astros and a five-year, $85 million pact with pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. two springs ago.
I hope Chas gets the starting centerfield spot unless Meyers or someone else proves they are a lot better. I think he deserves to be the defacto starter.
Greinke gave up a HR to Rendon. That season he struggled after 6 and very rarely pitched past that point for the Astros. The same people yelling at Dusty for leaving JV in too long are still clamoring for Greinke to be left in, despite mounting evidence that he was regressing or would have continued to regress. Granted, bringing in an overused Harris (who still threw a great pitch) vs. not bringing in 'you know who' can continue to be debated indefinitely around here... but taking Greinke out at that point was certainly justified.
Wait... are you seriously trying to suggest that those situations were equivalent? Verlander was lucky he made it out of the 2nd, but was given miles of rope. Greinke was pitching a gem, then got yanked at the very first sign of trouble. The situations couldn't have been more different
Talking about game 1 where people were clamoring for him to be taken out at the very first sign of trouble. Greinke had pitched well... but was showing signs of wavering as JV was in game 1. One game says "leave him in"... other game says "should have been taken out after 5". Both sides could make a case, but this is also why managers get paid as well.
Ok. Better comparison. But G1 Verlander stiill got a lot of rope in that 4th, and then 5th. Gave up six hits, 2 walks and a lot of scary outs. I think it was clear that Verlander was done, although I certainly agree that he's earned more leeway than Greinke at those points
He had thrown almost 4 perfect innings and should have been out of it unscathed with that DP ball... then got somewhat dink/dunked into giving up a run (Castellanos ball was at his shoes). I wouldn't have considered him "done" at that point, but some experts here said they knew he was.... and yet Greinke gives up a HR in the 6th and had only pitched deeper on one occasion as an Astro (and it happens to be a do/die game 7), yet he should be left in... Managers do tend to be consistent in their decision making. Hinch had Greinke on a short leash throughout that season. JV really didn't really have a lot of bad games at all, but when he did Dusty tended to let him pitch his way through them.
If memory serves, Baker was given huge Kudos for keeping Grienke in at one point in a game that worked out. Was it 2020 ALCS vs Rays? People complain based on the result regardless of the decision
Can't say I know much, but his AAA splits against lefties were completely dominant. His small MLB sample was solid as well. Honestly surprised he was available for free on waivers given he still has options.
Seems weird but his velocity and spin rate aren't high. Obviously, our pitching staff feel they can improve his effectiveness.
Looking at Baseball Savant, it looks like he's got Blake Taylor's gyro-spin (aka, it moves weird, wiggles, etc) fastball with a gyro-spin cutter. No idea if he's good. Sometimes, I think the Astros just acquire guys that have weird pitches so they can figure out what the pitcher is doing so they can try to duplicate the pitches with guys with better arms.
