If we can’t resign our young guys, and we will only have too notch talent for 6 years unless they sign awful players contracts, then I would endorse this move. After 2025 we have Peña, Alvarez and Brown with 1 more year for Chas, Garcia and LMJ and Abreu. If that’s the team and we don’t graduate any all star level players from the farm between now and then than that looks like an 85 ish win team that has some pretty valuable parts that probably ought to be flipped out while a rebuild is performed. That’s a lot more palatable if we win a couple more titles between now and then. Extending a couple guys is so important because it just totally and completely changed the calculus on adding parts and having a reasonable chance of winning a title (5-10%) vs trading off and starting another rebuild. It’s hard to overstate how important it is to extend a couple of these guys this off-season.
Brown is absurd and Garcia is a pretty big overpay. If the royals want to compete in 2024 then Urquidy, Meyers and Lee, plus whatever 10M or so would buy then as the difference between Perez salary and what’s coming back to them is a pretty fair and decent deal for them. It’s likely that would allow them to fill 3 roster spots at league average in a cumulative sense for 10-15M on each of 24 and 25. That’s not nothing, it’s actually petty substantial benefit for a team in that market. Those guys from the Astros aren’t going to win them their division, that would have to come from their young players becoming stars, but they would be good enough complementary parts that the Royals wouldn’t have an Anaheim level stars and scrubs problem in all likelihood. There’s even some potential upside in all 3 of the Astros guys and almost. I chance of them flaming out and being below replacement level players. If that’s not good enough for the royals and doesn’t adequately help them solve some problems for a 24-25 competitive window then they can **** right off. We just saw in FA that Perez has zero surplus value. It’s why I wanted Comtreras signed so badly and thought his deal was imminently reasonable from a dollars and cents perspective.
Jorge Alfaro or Travis D’A if the Braves don’t pick up his option for 8M in 2024 looks like best of FA options. Meh.
What kind of odds could I get that Maldonado returns to the Astros in 2024? It seem he and Baker get to set their own ending date, regardless of their Contract. Perhaps Brantley as well.
Nook said something about the Astros having to convince Maldy to return? That his body is starting to fail making it hard to stay healthy? I expect him to take a coaching position within the organization in 2024. Can you confirm and/or elaborate @Nook or others?
That was my hope for 2023 with him showing Lee and Diaz the ropes from a non player position. It was also and remains my hope for Yuli in some capacity.
WAR explained. I'm not sure if this has had its own thread or should. But when valuing trades, players value, projecting future levels its important to understand. And I did not completely until just reading about it so thought I should put it here. Someone can move it or suggest I move it ( or ignore it?) as best for the site and all of us. There are too many components and methods of computing WAR to go into how it is determined but I want to look at WAR as a whole on individual players and teams once it's determined. Both Fangraphs ( FG) and Baseball Reference (BR) give a total of 1000 WAR each season. FG gives 570 to position players and 430 to pitchers. BR gives 590 to position players and 410 to pitchers. WAR is based on .294 winning %, so a team of 0 WAR (or replacement level) players would win 48 games (47.63 actually) 1000 WAR ÷ 30 teams = 33.33 Average W-L is always 81-81 in a 162 game schedule. 33.33 WAR + 47.63 starting point = 81 wins. Based on 13 position and 13 pitchers per team, Average position player: FG= 1.46 ( fWAR) BR= 1.51 (bWAR) Average pitcher FG= 1.10 (fWAR) BR= 1.95 (bWAR) Furthermore, according to Spotrack, the current MLB average 26 man roster salary is $136.4M (rounded) so 1 WAR is worth $4.1M. Keep in mind that this can get as complicated as you want it to. For example: there is a leverage component so more important positions get more more for the same stats, based on them bring accomplished in more important areas. A SS will get more WAR than a 2B if they have identical stats. A closer will get more WAR than a middle reliever all else being equal as well.
Maldonado played really hurt the second half of last season and he was seriously considering retirement. The Astros wanted him back. Part of the urgency to get a capable catcher at the deadline last year was in case Maldonado couldn’t play. Interestingly enough, the best bet of him returning in 2024 is if his body is healthy and relatively pain free. That is most likely to happen if he isn’t catching over 100 games next year. Yeah, the Astros dual pitching coaches, manager, many players and analytic guys and Putila wanted Maldonado to be involved in either coaching/working with the pitchers in the system or in the front office. From what I have been told, Maldonado isn’t just a grinder or a leader - he has a very high aptitude for analytics, game planning and even has a very good eye for telling how good a pitcher will be long term. He was also embarrassed by his bat the last couple years and has said lower body injuries were a big reason why (who knows how true that is). Maldonado is a weird guy. It wasn’t personal but he didn’t want to lose playing time to Vasquez last season. However supposedly has less of an issue when it’s a guy that has a long track record of success. Also, I know there are some that have talked about Maldy mentoring Lee or Diaz. Supposedly he isn’t easy to learn from for some guys because he is very competitive and really hard on guys that don’t give 100%.
It's also interesting to note that since there is a specific predetermined number of WAR then every time a player's WAR increases someone else's must decrease whether they played or not.
Agreed - it also helps it makes sense on how the total league WAR actually does add up to the right number of total wins across all the teams, and what a baseline "0 WAR" team is expected to do.
I would shoot the shot. Garcia, Meyers, Lee, Perez, Maton and Blanco for Perez, Barlow, Prospects Gentry and Waters. What's the worst that can happen. No
Not sure if this has been discussed ad nauseam...not going to scour 450+ pages... Any shot the Astros would get in the running to trade for Ohtani or sign him when he goes FA after next season? Just curious.
No. If Crane is hesitant to go 6+ years, we’re not going to be the team to give Ohtani the 500m he’s going to get. Enter LAD, SFG, NYM, etc…but not HOU
