I think Crane would be willing to go up to the first tax level to keep Verlander so that is an extra ~20M potentially. Verlander: 2/88M (will take 2 years if it exceeds Scherzer AAV) Bell 4/64M (or Abreu for shorter deal) Vazquez: 3/27M Brantley: 2/22M 44+16+9+11 = 80M leaves ~5M for trade deadline
So the question marks are: 1) Do we sign JV or just move on? 2) What do we do with LF, Brantley or FA? 3) What do we do at 1B, Yuli or FA? 4) What do we do at catcher, Maldy or FA? 5) Do we sign Montero or replace him with cheaper option or just go with what we have? JV 3 year deal, 3rd year player option Abreu 2 year deal, 3rd year team option Brantley 2 year deal, 2nd year team option Vazquez, 3 year deal, 3rd year team option No moves for the bullpen, Montero walks Diaz 2 year deal, 2nd year team option Smith, Gurriel and Mancini walk
We have team control for the next 3 years. That being said, I think we will do an interim Bregman type deal. The dude shouldn't be making single digit millions at this point.
I suspect he will be approached again, but I get the Correa vibe that he's not really interested in a team friendly deal for AAV or length. We really can't pay Market price for every player on our roster and keep this team relatively stable. Turnover is the price we pay for sustaining excellence. We'll see how those who indulge in the Top of the FA market fare over four or five seasons. I hope I'm wrong and we extend Tucker for 6 years. I have always looked at JV as more of a Marketing exception to fiscal sanity.
WTF are you talking about? Slim to none? What happened last year is this team made the ALCS for the 6th year in a row. If you think the chances we don’t have the best pitching in baseball again is slim or none…well lets bet on it. I imagine slim to none means really really unlikely odds…20 to 1 seems generous. But I’ll bet you $500 at 20-1 that the Astros have a top five team ERA in all of baseball.
The biggest advantage of Abreu over Rizzo is not the $7M gap, but the QO costing a pick, reduced International allocation and longer term with Rizzo. But they still have to figure out whether Gurriel's post season is enough to overlook his regular season and whether to bring him back or not. But I agree I place value on extended professional PAs, even if they don't result in getting on base. That is one reason I have pushed for Hensley getting a greater role and more PAs. But with the restriction on shifts, I like his potential at 1B as much as his utility role. Gurriel's defensive reputation at 1B comes more from his pick ability than his range. Hensley could give us his strength at pick and twitch while adding range and reach. I could see bringing A Diaz back for utility and playing Y Diaz and Hensley at 1B. ps Speculating about roles for Yuli and Malonado in some type of player/coach roles is apparently a non starter because of the MLBPA Master agreements after Rose was a player manager in the 80s. So a role would be player/mentor only or coach only officially. Rose is described as the LAST Player/Manager in articles.
Do you think valuations have accounted for the rule changes? In general I think Bell might be helped the most by no shift of the guys on the market. If Crane were Steven Cohen it should be obvious that we should sign Verlander and Nimmo and Abreu. I think we should sign Verlander and offer Brown and Leon and whatever else for Varsho. He’s probably my favorite player that isn’t an Astro. Above average defense at centerfield and catcher that hits ten percent above league average. Dude is almost as rare as Ohtani.
Like Altuve? Or how Yuli was terrible for an entire season and then our best hitter in the playoffs besides Pena? Your concern should be for every other team. Everyone on the team should be better or the same besides Altuve and Verlander and we were the best regular season team with three black hole spots in the lineup that couldn’t possibly be worse next year. Crane wants to win and isn’t cheap so basically can’t screw this up since we have so many awesome players when Bregman forgets how to hit for two months it doesn’t matter cause Yordan was Ted Williams then. Everything about the Astros is awesome and it is gonna stay that way for years. It’s so ****ing beautiful and brings me so much joy I struggle to believe its true. But reading this forum day to day you’d think we lived in Pittsburgh.
Relax. I’m talking about how utterly dominant and relatively injury free the pitching was. They’re not going to be bad. Easily still be a top 5 staff. But people here taking for granted saying that Verlander is a pure luxury and is automatically expendable.
No way we pay Justin 44 per. We will likely land in the 30-36 range. Vazquez will seek a full-time role. A lot of the budget depends on which threshold Crane wants to stay under.
Based on the MLBTR contract estimates I would sign Bell, Haniger, and Andrew Heaney, who would be my surprise signing since I think he has very high upside. Then I’d try to flip Urquidy for a catcher (either straight up for Danny Jansen, or add prospects and try to get Murphy or Kirk), and hopefully have enough money leftover to extend Javier. 2B Altuve SS Pena DH Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker LF Haniger 1B Bell C Jansen CF McCormick Bench: Maldonado, Meyers, Dubon, Hensley Rotation: Valdez, Javier, McCullers, Heaney, Garcia, Brown Bullpen: James, Martinez, Maton, Stanek, Abreu, Neris, Pressly
I'm not convinced the market is going to get insane for Verlander. He's only going to consider top contenders, and I think only win-now contenders would consider a 40 y/o high cost pitcher. The Yankees will be tied up with Judge and may also look at Rodon. The Mets are a possibility, but does Verlander want to play in NY at this stage of his career and with his growing family (his interview after Game 6 was very family oriented)? Texas will be chasing DeGrom and maybe Kershaw. Giants are chasing Judge and maybe Correa. Might the Dodgers hold their noses and bring in Verlander? I'm not seeing an obvious candidate. Phillies are after Trea Turner and likely won't have money for both. And layer on the injury history and age... I see a 3 year deal at $100M as where he ends up.
I would be thrilled if you are right but I think agent will use even non contenders in negotiating. If a team like Texas offers 3/$135 he will say. "There is a 3/$135 offer on the table" He won't disclose where it is from. I also think that once DeGrom signs the price goes up. The Astros need to sign him early by making an offer no other team will just like last year (adding 2nd year) Offer 3yr/$125 + $20M players option with $10M buyout. AAV $36.25 but guaranteed $45M for 3 yrs breaking Scherzers AAV record. And JV has the 4th yr insurance incase he breaks down. Nolan Ryan, Randy Johnson, and Riger Clemens each pitched above league average into age 43 season and beyond. I dont think the risk is as bad as many others do. Then trade Garcia or Urquidy for a 1B or catcher. Urquidy for Christian Walker and a prospect? Then the team won't need to add a $15M+ AAV free agent 1B but still have the best 6 deep rotation in baseball.
