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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 7, 2022.

  1. Screaming Fist

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    If $35+M AAV for JV is too much, what about a $25M AAV for Rodon? Younger and was about as good as JV in 2022.
     
  2. houstonstime

    houstonstime Member

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    Most of the best free agents are SS and SP, neither of which we need. Sign JV, Brantley, and then look to trade for CF or 1B.

    I dunno, I can’t be thinking logically here.. my brain is still riding a high from WS where yuli was our best hitter and mccormick is the man. But I know deep down they cannot be our starters. Haha
     
  3. Radricky

    Radricky Member

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    He's more likely to crack a bone
     
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  4. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    I dunno. No real reason to go after starting pitching if they don't resign JV. They've already got 5 experienced big-league starters plus Hunter Brown. If JV isn't resigned, then FA money should go to a bat.
     
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  5. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Eh, I guess it's a non-zero chance but he really hasn't merited it either. Besides a two-start single A stint last year, he hasn't had an ERA under 5 since HiA in 2019. If we're just talking 7+ depth starters, Bielak and JP France are probably ahead of him.
     
  6. Screaming Fist

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    I don't get why JV should be treated differently than other potential TORPs. I would think the first question (after the front office is settled) is do you want to spend money on a FA TORP, and if so work from there through the available options. Maybe JV should be privileged in these discussion relative to other potential free agent SPs if he's willing to take a hometown discount, but I doubt that happens.
     
  7. Major

    Major Member

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    If he is younger and as good as JV, why would he get a substantially lower AAV? (this ignores the fact that he wasn't as good, by a full point in ERA, and also a worse WHIP and BAA)

    Besides, why would the Astros spend $25MM on a SP when they had *4* SP's this year with lower ERAs than Rodon?
     
  8. Kemahkeith

    Kemahkeith Member

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    I keep looking and seeing everyone wanting us to get a left fielder??
    Don't we need a signature CF?
    Asking for a friend.
     
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  9. Cinder Guard

    Cinder Guard Member

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    CF: Nimmo
    LF/RF: Brantley,Tucker
    SS: Peña
    2B: Altuve
    3B: Bregman
    1B: Rizzo
    C: Contreras
     
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  10. Screaming Fist

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    Rodon had the same xERA, lower FIP, and about equal DRA- while pitching about the same number of innings as JV. JV has a lower ERA due to luck and pitching in front of a substantially better defense (SFG had the lowest DEF in baseball in 2022). JV will get a higher AAV because he's JV although he'll obviously get fewer years than Rodon.
     
  11. JeeberD

    JeeberD Contributing Member

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    We've got a number of young CFers in the pipeline, so no need to spend a lot of money on a long contract for a FA. The money can be better used elsewhere. Also...what signature CFers are out there in free agency?
     
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  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    (Copying my post from the other thread)

    If Houston is trying to field the best 2023 opening day roster they can reasonably afford, the additions would be (in order of priority):

    1B: Bell, Abreu, or Rizzo
    OF/DH: lots of options but I think Haniger and Conforto could represent a good value
    C/DH: This would need to come from trade if they add 2 good free agent hitters; Murphy, Jansen, or Kirk seem to be fits
    P: if they bring back Verlander then the staff would be set (and Urquidy, Garcia, or Brown become trade bait). Otherwise they can search for an underrated RP (Michael Fulmer seems like a potential target)

    Best realistic opening day roster for now:
    2B Altuve
    SS Pena
    DH Alvarez
    3B Bregman
    RF Tucker
    1B Abreu ($32M/2yr)
    LF Haniger ($54M/3yr + vesting 4th year)
    C Murphy (for Leon, Barber, Perez, and Arrighetti)
    CF McCormick
    Bench: Maldonado, Meyers, Hensley, Dubon
    Rotation: Valdez, Javier, McCullers, Garcia, Brown, Urquidy
    Bullpen: James, Maton, Stanek, Neris, Abreu, Pressly, Fulmer ($4M/1yr + 2nd yr team option)
    Optioned: Whitley, Murray, Bielak, Dubin, France, Martinez, Paredes, Taylor, Mushinski, Blanco, Lee, Diaz, Matijevic, Julks
     
  13. Nook

    Nook Member

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    This is going to be a very interesting off season.

    First there is a division between Dusty Baker and the coaching staff and some in the front office and the GM Jim Click.

    Baker doesn't hold the same principles and views on the game that Jim Click does, and Baker is willing to make decisions based on his relationships with people and what he has learned dealing with people over the last 50 years. Jim Click is someone that is more interested in the numbers and believes that people (players will adjust).

    The dynamics with Crane will be interesting because he is someone that has largely built his business by reading people and how they will react in situations and through building relationships. That is how he even built the investment group to buy the Astros. On the other-hand, he has gone head first into advanced analytics and and scouting.

    I know that Crane on a personal level likes Dusty Baker and he feels that they are a lot alike when it comes to how they handle people and relationships. From what I have heard, Crane does not have that type of bong with Jim Click, and there has been tension because Click has felt that he has had opposition from Baker and Crane when it comes to doing business.

    Crane has been a big advocate and supporter of Maldonado, Verlander, Bregman and others. He believes strongly in pitching and defense as well. He does however expect his front office to make moves and spend money when it is smart. I know for a fact that Crane was not happy with Click's performance in the Spring and at the deadline. He wanted a big addition and it did not happen.

    Now it has been leaked that Jim Click wanted to trade Jose Urquidy for Wilson Contreras and that Crane didn't approve the deal. I know that Click felt that at a minimum he could get a deal done with the Cubs, for Contreras and Happ. However, Crane vetoed the deal for Contreras. Was it because Happ wasn't involved (one early report had Urquidy and a minor leaguer to Chicago for Contreras and Happ).

    We can try to connect the dots..... Dusty and Crane are big supporters of Maldonado and so is Miller. Did Crane block the deal because he didn't want Contreras behind the plate? Was it because the cost was too high for just Contreras and the belief is Click panicked?

    What I can say is that Urquidy for Contreras IS an overpay, for what is only a few months. Urquidy is under contract for three years and Contreras is a free agent. Why was this conveniently leaked after the World Series? Is this setting the stage for Click to not be brought back?

    Why was Baker and Crane so set on Josh Bell?

    The Astros technically do not have a GM right now, and Crane made it clear that HE would reach out to Verlander yesterday.

    Who leaked before the playoffs that Dusty Baker can come back and manage the Astros regardless of the playoff outcome.

    Everyone believed that winning the World Series only helped Click's chances of coming back.... but did it? If the Astros won keeping Urquidy and now the Contreras trade demands seem heavy? No other team came close to matching the Cubs price either.

    Does Click even want to comeback?
     
  14. Nook

    Nook Member

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    If it were up to the Astros, they would have three centerfielders.

    The issue is that there are not a lot of centerfielders available, and the ones that are available are very expensive in trade or free agency.

    The Astros are likely to get more bang for their buck keeping McCormick and Meyers in centerfield next year and hitting them 8th and go after either a left fielder or a 1st baseman that is a strong back. The names Josh Bell, Jose Abreu and possibly Anthony Rizzo will probably be mentioned often as possible fits. From what I have heard, ownership would be open to Brantly returning at the right number.

    If the Astros have Brantly at DH/LF and someone like Bell or Abreu at 1st, that is a massive improvement over what they had in the playoffs.

    Consider:

    Altuve
    Pena
    Alvarez
    Abreu
    Bregman
    Tucker
    Brantley
    McCormick
    Maldonado

    That is a line-up that is really strong 1-7 and not a lot of strikeouts.
     
  15. conquistador#11

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    As long as we don't sign a Goodrum for that extra big bat we need, I'm good.
    Surprise me, my GM Mr. Crane! Or is it Dusty? Or is Click?
     
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  16. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    JV absolutely is a different discussion than other TORPs. He has far greater brand recognition and stature than Rodon and Crane has a personal relationship with him. JV is a factor for boosted ticket and merchandise sales. Rodon and most of the other available starting pitchers are not.

    Plus JV isn't going to need a 4-5 year contract line Rodon will likely get. If they're not spending the money on JV, the money needs to go to a bat or extending the current rotation.
     
  17. prospecthugger

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    That makes the 1B and corner bats look pretty cheap. Josh Bell is projected for just $6 million more than the Astros gave Pedro Baez. The Astros could also be opportunistic in grabbing whichever of Brantley, Conforto, Joc, Haniger, Benintendi or Profar ends up being the best value.

    Based on those values, the Astros could give Verlander 2/$80 million, Conforto 1/$12 million, and Bell 2/$18 million. That might take up the entire budget, but should get them heavy favourites in the AL, and no long term albatrosses or hurting the farm. Ultimately, I suspect some of those contracts are light, but the Astros are definitely in position to take advantage of the "shrinking middle class" if they can add a solid veteran bat or 2 on a reasonable contract.
     
  18. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Totally agree. There's not a lot of good CF'ers out there and paying market rate for a good one is an unnecessary luxury. Gotta play a few minimum contracts in the lineup to optimize the lineup elsewhere and we already have "good enough" CF options.
     
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  19. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Right, and Crane is more than willing to spend a lot of money on a short deal BUT he is not willing to spend on a long term contract.

    That makes Verlander more likely than Rondon or some others.
     
  20. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Agreed, and the Astros can likely sigh someone like Jose Abreu to a 2-3 year contract and not a 5-6 year deal like it will likely take to sign Nimmo.

    The Astros in part probably have some interest in guys like Abreu, Rizzo and others because they are not long term commitments.

    The Astros under Crane have a history of signing guys to these types of deals, like Beltran and Verlander and Yuli and Brantley.

    The Astros are very risk adverse.
     

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