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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Nov 7, 2022.

  1. conquistador#11

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    We've been giving our signees 5-8 million more above street market value, mayne. Issa Ok. It's the price of doing business. By that token, Contreras street market value is 16 million, so I'm thinking 4 years for 88 million seems about right. I think our GM, Bagwell would do it. You'd still have money to offer to Yuli or Brantley maybe both.
    In the end you get Contreras+ Abreu for the same price you would have gotten Kate and Verlander. It hurts saying goodbye to Kate. Honestly, I don't know if I can make it. Another title would heal the wounds.

    You call up Leon and Brother Brown takes another leap, both in rookie of the year chase.
     
    #3081 conquistador#11, Dec 2, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2022
    Houstunna and J_Hunter_1977 like this.
  2. Landry's Tooth

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    Yeah, and we gave up folty and someone else (thurman?) and about 14 million to have him for several years...

    Just move on to the next one... no need to pay that 15 million if you can trade for someone making 5-10 for minimal prospect cost.

    Renfroe and Teoscar are comparable offensively and, while their salaries are higher now, they weren't much to trade for.
     
  3. Landry's Tooth

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    They would need Benny or Tucker in CF.

    Brantley platoons in left with Gurriel at 1B for lefty/righty. Yordan and Abreu shift in and out of dh to make spot.

    I don't think they sign Benny and Brantley. Nimmo is more natural cf option and worth the difference in salary.
     
  4. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Jim Bowden has Benintendi at 5/$75M. He also has Josh Bell at 3/$39M, which would be pretty surprising to me.

    He had Abreu at 2/$34M, Rizzo at 3/$54M, Zach Eflin at 3/$36M, Edwin Diaz at 4/$65M and Tyler Anderson at 2/$24M of the guys to sign already. I'd say that was very close on Eflin & Rizzo, and really even Anderson. Way off on Diaz and pretty off with Abreu.
     
  5. mkahanek

    mkahanek Member

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    On one hand it makes me nervous to lose a veteran stopper like JV. But, then again we did fine losing Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel and then Gerritt Cole didn't we??
     
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  6. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Dude, it’s cool to have your preferences but conceptually you are thinking about this stuff wrong value wise.

    FWar is worth 8.5 on the open market. If he keeps knocking down fwar seasons of 3 (let’s give him 12 over the 4 year contract) you are talking about his value being 4/100- he’s probably going to get 4/80 or 5/100. the reason he will get less than 5/100 is people probably aren’t projecting him to keep up the 3 War pace into his mid 30’s.

    if a 4/80 deal happens it’s fair value. Maldonado makes $5M so that 2 WAR difference between them means Comtreras should make 16M more per year, and he will end up with 13-16M greater in yearly salary. So that math works both ways.

    The numbers discussed work. He’s being properly valued. There’s nothing wrong with that contract. he’s a plus bat at LF and DH, he’s a plus plus bat at Catcher, we have a hole in the lineup and field at a place he fills and he’s going to be on an imminently reasonable contract if he performs the next 4 years like we think he will.

    it’s a good idea. If it happens get excited for it. Or don’t. That’s fine too. But you don’t go bankrupt or close your window by paying the occasional FA what they are worth at a position of need.
     
    #3086 Wulaw Horn, Dec 2, 2022
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2022
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  7. Marshall Bryant

    Supporting Member

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    I dispute 8.5M per WAR for DH and corner outfielders. It appears to be closer to $5M there. That might be right for C and SS with something in between for 2B and CF. Pitching is probably more.
     
  8. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    The positional downgrades made for various defensive positions do the work for you. DH’s don’t make less than other people based upon WAR value. Is the metic perfect? Of course not. But it’s pretty close from a horseshoes and hand grenades sense and if you are going to convince me a pickup shouldn’t be valued that was because of defensive position you are going to have the burden of proof on that debate.
     
  9. Landry's Tooth

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    That's nice and all but I'm not sure what that has to do with what i said.

    You're quoting a stat that assumes he's 100% catcher. I said his value is at 100% catcher.

    If you turn him into a DH and compare him to other DHs his value in WAR does drop.

    He's 76th in total war last year. He was tied with Kirk who might be a decent comp though is younger.

    As per espn they are showing one DH with. WAR over 3 last year and that was Yordan.

    JD Martinez had a WAR of 1.1 despite having an ops of .790.
     
    Major likes this.
  10. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    Crane is not expected to attend the meetings. It’s unclear if his three assistant general managers will have any autonomy or authority to finalize transactions on site. Bill Firkus and Charles Cook have held their new titles for less than a month. Andrew Ball, the longest-tenured of the assistant general manager trio, has only been an Astros employee since January.



    Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are the only two lefthanded hitters on the 26-man roster. Adding more balance seems crucial. Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto and Andrew Benintendi are all ideal fits.

    If Crane has a bigger splash in mind, the team has coveted Willson Contreras since the start of free-agency, multiple people within the organization said.

    Doing so could disrupt some clubhouse chemistry. Last year, Martín Maldonado guided Houston’s pitching staff to the best season in franchise history and cemented himself as one of this team’s unquestioned leaders. Next season is his final under club control. Korey Lee and Yainer Diaz both wet their feet at the major league level last year, too. Adding Contreras may make Maldonado a trade candidate to clear space for one of Lee or Diaz to be the backup.
     
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  11. Wulaw Horn

    Wulaw Horn Member

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    Because I think you are fundamentally misreading what’s going on here.
    You’ve called him a minus bat at DH or Lf. Be just isn’t. he will be our backup catcher and likely catch 60 or 70 games (maybe more if Maldy gets hurt). He will also play another 80 likely at DH or LF. That’s all added bonus! He played 110 games or something like that last year.
    he will be worth the contract he gets. It’s not gross or an overpay. It’s not for a jillion years. He will be our regular catcher no later than 2024. Maybe sooner if injuries happen. In the meantime he will fill multiple holes beyond catcher at a quasi all star level bat.
    He had the same OPS plus and stat rates as Bregman and Tucker. That bat plays anywhere. It’s a good deal any way you look at it unless he comes in and ***** the bed. He’s a 30 YO looking for a 4 year contract. That’s about as good a deal as you are going to get in FA.
     
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  12. Landry's Tooth

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    I didn't call him a minus bat. I said he was just a guy at DH and that his value is as a catcher.

    Tucker at 25 had a 128 ops+. Contreras did too at age 30. The prior two seasons he didn't crack 110. Tucker was down from 147 the prior year which Contreras has never gotten close to. Tucker has been 118+ 4 years in a row. Contreras is at 118 or better 2 out of the last 5 years.

    Tucker far more likely to post a 140 ops+ next season than Contreras.

    Bregman was tied with Abreu at 133: a figure Contreras has never had. Bregman has 2 seasons over 150 ops+.

    I mean it's fine they were closer this past year and all but at their ages that gap is more likely to increase than Contreras keep up.

    Nimmo will cost a little more than Contreras and has 130 or beyter ops+ 4 out of the past 5 seasons. He's just a better offensive player than Contreras.

    I'm not opposed to Contreras but it would be because we missed on other guys first.

    He's an upgrade over Mancini for sure. I just don't want to waste money on him if those same dollars get a better player.
     
  13. robbie380

    robbie380 ლ(▀̿Ĺ̯▀̿ ̿ლ)
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    I like Nimmo but the bidding war for him seems a little ridiculous. He's injury prone too. He's a nice player and good in center, but 20+ mil over 5 years is way too much for someone that has missed so much time due to injury.

    Benintendi or Conforto aren't CFs but they make a lot more sense at this point. Conforto as a platoon would be spectacular. He crushes righties and Chas hammers lefties. That said we are still left with the issue of who plays center. It's too bad Meyers hasn't panned out.
     
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  14. Screaming Fist

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    Why on Earth would you spend $75M on Benintendi when Meyers can probably provide 90% or more of the value for a fraction of the cost?
     
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  15. travfrancis

    travfrancis Member

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    Can Benintendi play a good centerfield? I assume not since he has played sparingly there during his career. It would definitely add to his utility. A left-handed batting centerfielder would be a nice platoon with McCormmick/Meyers/Leon.
     
  16. Landry's Tooth

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    He will be an overpay, most free agents are... but he solves a lot of issues... lefty bat, true centerfielder, possibly a leadoff man if Altuve loses a step...

    He's played full seasons 3 out of 5 years. He's likely a .400 ob% guy and that's become harder to find:

    Qualified hitters in majors with .400 ob%
    2022: 6
    2021: 3
    2020: 11
    2019: 7
    2018: 6

    The thought of him hitting 2 makes it really interesting... you flip Bregman and Yordan and you have 3 hitters in front of Yordan / Abreu / Tucker / Pena with a .375 or better ob%.

    Also makes Dusty happy he can flip lefty/righty through the hole lineup if they bring back Brantley.
     
  17. Major

    Major Member

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    Depends on your definition of "fine". It's possible we win a WS in 2020 and/or 2021 if we had Cole. Of course, who knows who else we might not have had as a result.
     
  18. CisBuds4U

    CisBuds4U Member

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    Agree on Nimmo - he'll probably be too expensive. I hope they go after Benintendi or maybe even look at Mitch Haniger on a short-term deal. Don't think they've given up on Meyers yet. If he is fully recovered, he could be a huge wild card for us and I assume the team will give him every opportunity in spring training to prove he is MLB ready and back to his old form, even if they end up flipping him for assets.
     
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  19. Landry's Tooth

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    What if this was the lineup?

    (R) 2B Altuve
    (L) CF Nimmo
    (R) 3B Bregman
    (L) DH Alvarez
    (R) 1B Abreu
    (L) RF Tucker
    (R) SS Pena
    (L/R) LF Brantley / McCormick platoon
    (R) C Maldonado

    They would have a shot at the 27 Yankees..
     
  20. Nook

    Nook Member

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    At this point I just accept that Maldy is the catcher whisperer. Too many very smart people that have worked with him say it is true. Having said that, it doesn't mean the Astros cannot bring in another catcher. A lot of the value Maldy has is working with the pitching coaches and pitchers when they are NOT actually in the game. Maldonado can do a lot of that with Contreras behind the plate. I know the veterans like him and feel comfortable with him as their catcher but I also suspect that when they see Contreras with his 130 OPS+ and Maldonado with his 69 OPS+; that they may be more open minded after losing a game or two 2-1 or 3-2.
     

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