Contreras K rate: 24% Bregman: 13.6 Altuve: 12.7 Alvarez: 22.5 Tucker: 17.1 Brantley: 10.6 Gurriel: 11.2 Abreu: 19.1 Springer: 20.5 Correa: 20.5 Reddick: 13.9 Potential Targets: Conforto: 23.8 Benintendi: 18.1 Bellinger: 23.2 Nimmo: 22.3 My biggest surprise is, it felt like Tucker had a higher rate than Alvarez. I also excluded Pena because his sample size is too small. But overall, 20% is kinda the "max" for the Astros. The most consistent pattern is we value avoiding the K and putting the ball in play. And, sorry if it sounds repetitive (or annoying/you don't like it), but Contreras costs a draft pick in addition to the signing. Also $500,000 in international signing but I wouldn't worry much because our hit rate is much better on the low bonus guys. Conforto shocked me a bit too. The big takeaway from my "digging" is Benintendi's numbers. Good contact hitter who played (mostly) in a pitcher's park the last 2 years. Gold glove defender (not that us Astros fans need to be reminded). I see him as a 300 hitter who can pop maybe 16 homers and swipe a few bags here and there.
There is a lot to consider and digest. First, every team in the league uses analytics and a number of teams invest deeply in it. The analytics that Baltimore uses is very similar to what the Astros use. Same with San Francisco, the Dodgers and Rays and Braves. There are not many real differences. Sometimes someone younger or innovative will emerge and it will change things up some. What made Luhnow good was his willingness to try new things and shake up his own system and infuse really smart people outside the game of baseball. Luhnow never made decisions just on analytics. He round tabled a lot of decisions and would bring outsiders into the mix for perspective. Making decision just on analytics would be middling or a disaster. Why? What Houston has for proprietary interests in analytics is all over the league at this point. So you have 1/3 to half the league targeting the same players in the draft, as reclamation projects in trades and free agency. The key is to find some area that is overlooked, something to give you a marginal advantage. That can be analytics but it is a saturated market. That can be player development or scouting. Bringing in really smart people outside the industry can help with this. Having someone that can bring a perspective like Bagwell or Ausmus isn’t necessarily bad if they can balance everything. Bagwell said that relying only on analytics is a mistake and there needs to be a balance. I agree with this, but the devil is in the details of what that proper balance is. As for Brad Ausmus. The media and fan portrayal of him when he played for the Astros wasn’t accurate. He is well educated and smart, but he was not really a hard worker with the staff or on his game. He had a high aptitude for the game though. I don’t care that he wasn’t a successful manager because I never expected he would be. He just wouldn’t consistently put in the work like most managers would and ultimately it wasn’t worth it to him. Not his personality. Being a GM is completely different than being a manager. His strengths fit better being a GM. I do still question if he would put in the hours or retain the interest to do it.
What's the expected AAV for Contreras? He just signed a 9.6 million deal for the 2022 season. He can't be too far north of that. Considering the second round draft pick required, that would potentially limit the suitors. 13? 14? 15?
Don’t spend 80 mil on him either at the risk of losing Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Valdez, etc. Astros need a third left hand bat. Contreras just does not fit the needs of the roster in 2023 and beyond it only gets worse.
Altuve Peña Alvarez Bregman Tucker Abreu Contreras Chaz Maldy I think Contreras splits time between DH/C and could occasionally play LF at home. Something like 100/50/10 between DH/C/LF. Split the remaining DH 30/30 between Abreu and Alvarez. Likely the Astros don’t want to go into next season with Lee or Diaz as the FT backup so this does make sense. Yuli could still be a backup start maybe 30 games at 1B while Abreu DHs. You go this route over Brantley or Benintendi and rely on Yordan in LF. You could still add Bellinger or Conforto on 1-2 year deals to play CF and let Chaz be your 4th OF. Adding Abreu, Contreras and Conforto would be fantastic. Feels like sensible all in moves to really solidify the 2-3 year window with the current core.
After reading Adam Spolane’s Twitter timeline, which contains a lot more context for Bags comments, I’m far far less concerned. And to be honest, I think my initial reaction/overreaction came from the (illogical) worry that the Astros were turning the dial away from data driven approaches and more “gut feel”/Dusty/old head decisionmaking, which would be a major step backward. Bags comments about data really helping pitchers and not putting too much into hitters heads … that rings true to me and is hardly some return to Stone Age thinking. In terms of identifying/exploiting market inefficiencies or new concepts, I hope Crane creates/maintains a culture where that continues to happen.
he hit 22 homeruns and Maldonado hit 15. It’s not huge and you factor in Maldy behind the plate and yeah it’s barely an upgrade. And it takes a third left hand bat out of the lineup and it goes against not wanting long term deals that conflict with core guys reaching free agency.
Oh Jesus no. Just no. That's a ridiculous number for someone we are considering playing mostly anything BUT catcher. His entire value is predicated on him being an elite hitting CATCHER. If he turns into a LF/DH for us, then he's a decent hitter at best (.260, 20 HRs, 65 RBIs). You're paying 20 mill for a LF/DH with those numbers? If Brantley is healthy and I'm certain he will be just fine, then he'll give you .315/15 HR/70 RBIs. And you'd pay him less than 10 million most likely. Can anyone justify a Contreras signing at that AAV? I'm just confused we aren't trying to sign Vazquez, he fit right in with the clubhouse, he's hardly a step down from Maldonado behind the plate and he's nearly the hitter that Contreras is, minus the power (projected .290/12 HRs/60 RBIs).
Everything about it is poor roster management. If you don't trust Contreras to catch in any meaningful capacity you don't sign him. It not only adds another right-handed bat, it completely clogs up any roster flexibility moving forward by using DH and occasionally hiding him as a terrible leftfielder when we already have Yordan. Spending all this money to add a non elite bat at the easiest position to address offensively. No thanks, if we sign him without the intent to catch half the time it's fantasy baseball.
Stack the lineup with hitters and everything will work itself out. For instance I dont think Maldy's body is going to hold up as well as it did last year. Another year older and coming off of surgery. I bet Contreras plays 60 games at C, 60 games at DH and maybe 20 games in LF. I could also see Leon or Dirden playing a lot of CF or in Dirden's case LF starting in late may or early June. Unless Brantley isbrought back. I think if Contreras is brought back then that's the end of JV in Houston.
As I said above I think Contreras is going to be doing a lot more catching than most think he will be. A lot of DH and a little LF sprinkled in. I would've rather Crane have brought back Vazquez for the reasons you listed. That doesn't appear to be in the cards. As fans with all of the success Crane's had he deserves the benefit of the doubt. I'm thinking in 2024 Stearns will be the next GM of the Stros.
Also Maldonado might be playing his final year. Have Contreras learn how the Astros pitchers pitch next year and then the year after, take over as the full time catcher.
Sigh this isn’t breaking news. Have known this for weeks. He would also catch just not as much. I am fine with signing him but I suspect someone comes up with more money. The 50 some odd games he would catch would give the Astros the best offense in baseball. McCormick in CF would be your 9th hitter.
He would play LF maybe 40 games a year or less. He would catch 50 or so games and DH when Alvarez or someone else plays LF.
A lot of misconceptions out there about Contreras. First, several weeks ago I said the Astros plan would be to have have him play multiple spots. I don’t where this Twitter guy heard he wouldn’t catch. Unless something has changed in the last 10 days, Contreras would still catch and would be the catcher when Maldy would not be catching. The goal was around 100-110 starts for Maldonado. That means 50-55 games where Contreras would start as a catcher. He would DH when Alvarez plays the field (80-85 games) and he would play some LF and possibly first if Abreu is out or DHing. The Astros (and Contreras) believe that he wears down catching 120 games a year and it impacts his hitting. He also has discussed playing better and focusing on a winning team. So from the Astros perspective he fits very well and his bat will improve with better protection and not having catch as often. Maldonado would also work with him on game planning and pitch selection. As for his defense, he is not considered a bad defensive catcher around the league. He has very good raw tools and they make up for the occasional mental lapses he has. So he won’t hurt the defense. Where Contreras has drawn criticism is managing a pitching staff and preparing for games. They believe the preparation for him will be less demanding catching less often and the Astros coaching staff and Maldonado will help a lot with that. The Astros are looking for value and versatility and he potentially provides that. So far Contreras hasn’t had an offer around the amount he is worth. The Astros have made an informal offer and we wi see. A lot of this stuff in the media about the Astros is mostly accurate but details are missing and context. If the Astros can get him at a solid value I would support the move. Also, I know some of Contreras basic analytical numbers seem good but not great, but my understanding is some of the more advanced and precise numbers show he is an even better hitter than advertised. The Astros want to meet him in person (something Click didn’t care about) and the Astros will judge him in person, FWIW someone from the pitching hive mind (Murphy maybe?) will meet with him. As for Bagwell, I trust his ability to identify the work ethic and character of a ball player. It is something he has good instincts for. Also I am fine with them just signing an outfielder instead, they are looking at all angles to increase their chances of improving the team. Contreras makes more sense than it seems at first - but so does just getting an outfielder and back up catcher.
