[Official] Astros Off Season

Do we have a chance of getting Conforto and re-signing Brantley?

 

Any other good bat makes this lineup so so deep. If they’re committed to Maldonado catching 75% of the games then that means they can really only sign one more good player, otherwise it means displacing McCormick, who at this point pretty clearly deserves an every day role.

 

Spoiler

 

Hopefully Pedro Leon can start to challenge Chas at CF unlike Jake Meyers last year.

 

I don't think Crane is ruling out Verlander...

They have plenty of cash before tax and very tradeable contracts if cash needed...

The active 26 would be at 227.5 million after arbitration IF:
12.5 million Brantley
8 million Yuli
38 million Verlander

This estimates Tucker first arb at 5.6 million.

The tax last year was 233 million.

So they would have about 64 million to cover Verlander, Gurriel, Brantley, and rest of 40 man...

Seems about the right amount... assuming no increase to tax...

Andrew Benny they will kick the tires on but not want to go 4 or 5 years he's going to get from someone...

 

Yeah I don't understand why he thinks this rules J.V. out. If Crane wants to spend into the tax we can still bring him back.

 

Click is gone because Crane wanted to spend...let him spend...break the glass of that championship window, you can't close it if there is nothing to close...

 

My hot take: At least 2 of Meyers, Chas, and Leon will have wRC+'s exceeding 115 next season, and I will complain that at least one of them is getting the shaft (likely Chas).

 

That's my read as well. Nimmo would be #1 choice for me. Contreras #2, Conforto #3, Uncle Mike way way way back at #4

 

Altuve
Pena
Alvarez
Bregman
Tucker
Abreu
Nimmo
Chas
Maldanado

(Lee, Hensley, Dubon, Yuli, Brantley, Leon, Meyer, Yainer)

Add Nimmo and it creates a real logjam. I think Yuli and Brantley would certainly be gone.

 

He is an under-rated hitter, who probably would be even better as a hitter with better protection in the line-up and not needing to catch every game. To me, he is a guy I would catch 80 games a year with Maldonado catching the other 80.

Defensively he is not a bad catcher. He is very gifted and agile behind home plate and has a strong arm. His problem is that he can get distracted and also he doesn't put in the effort to call a great game.

You figure he can play 80 games as a catcher and another 50-60 as a DH and give you really good production. Adding his bat to the line up would make a huge difference when he is catching.

 

I don't think they sign Contreras, even though he fits a lot of the Astros needs. My guess is that he is too expensive unless they think they can get Brantley for a really low number.

Having said that, the difference between Contreras in the line up and Maldonado is huge. Contreras has an OPS+ almost double that or Maldonado (128 vs. 69). He also could spell first base as well and still be a positive bat there. I think it comes down to money and how highly the Astros think of Lee long term. I will say, if Lee can become a 100+ OPS hitter with his low salary, that would be a MASSIVE win for the Astros.

I think that the Astros are going to target a left-handed bat for LF. They added Abreu, who hits lefties well, but they believe in being able to keep switching the perspective the pitcher sees from hitter to hitter.

That leaves Bellinger, Gallo, Brantley, Benintendi, Conforto and Nimmo as possible fits.

All are lefties and most can play CF in a pinch.

I think Nimmo is too expensive. I think Benintendi probably is over-paid for his production. Bellinger is likely going to get more money elsewhere.

That leaves Conforto, Gallo and Brantley.

Gallo's high strike out numbers could scare the Astros away.

Conforto is a great fit for a one-year deal, but will likely want a high AAV.

Brantley is the most logical choice, but I am not sure how much he will be able to play the field in 2023.

At the right cost, Benintendi is a really solid fit. He doesn't strike out a lot, he can draw walks and moves runners over. He also is an above average runner, can play some center if needed, and he is a very good glove. The Astros outfield defense would be exceptional.

 

I can confirm the Jorge Alfaro interest by the Astros.

They asked about him last year at the deadline.

He can catch and play some left field.

Scouts think that he can play a lot of games and there is still some hope for his bat.

If the cost is low, I would welcome him as a long term replacement for Maldonado if the Astros just don't believe in Lee.

 

What does this mean? Doesnt make sense.

 

I am on board with forcing young players to dominate AAA in order to get a spot in Houston. Neither Lee nor Diaz are in position to demand a roster spot; Lee was mediocre most of the year in AAA while Diaz only got 48 games in AAA and didn’t exactly cement himself as a viable defensive catcher. So I’m totally on board with signing a catcher and forcing those guys to show improvement/consistency in the minors, with the added benefit of installing a winning culture in the minors. Same thing for Pedro Leon. I do think Hensley has earned a bench role and that if they don’t expect to have a spot for Meyers then they should gauge his trade value; both of those guys have shown they are MLB caliber players when healthy.

 

Yeah, it is a tough situation because the reason the Astros are as good as they are and have money to spend is because they let their young players get a chance to contribute. However, it is possible that the Astros player development staff doesn't think this group is very good.

Ideally you don't spend money just to spend money, you find areas to save money (tail end of the bullpen, utility player and back-up catcher) and ideally you don't sign a left fielder long term with the prospects the Astros have.

Personally, unless Yuli is really cheap, I pass on him for basic finances. Left field would be better with someone like Benintendi or Conforto, but the Astros can probably get buy with Brantley if he is healthy and cheap. Even with his power gone, he still does everything else well as a hitter.

Back up catcher is a larger concern because of how injured Maldonado has been and his complete lack of offense. Adding someone like Omar Narvaez or Jorge Alfaro or Mike Zunino makes a lot of sense. Alfaro may make the most sense in a decent trade because of his cost, length under team control and that he wouldn't have much say about a trade. Narvaez and Zunino may want to go somewhere that they can start.

 

Dreaming for a minute based on rumors:
2B Altuve
SS Pena
LF Alvarez
3B Bregman
RF Tucker
1B Abreu
CF Nimmo/Conforto/Benintendi/Bellinger
C Contreras/Alfaro
DH Brantley
Bench: Maldonado, Gurriel, McCormick, Dubon
Rotation: Valdez, McCullers, Javier, Garcia, Urquidy, Brown
Bullpen: Martinez, Maton, Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu, Pressly
Optioned: Lee, Diaz, Hensley, Meyers, Matijevic, Perez, Whitley, Bielak, Blanco, Dubin, France, Mushinski, Paredes, Taylor

That is a 1-26 (and really a 1-40) for the history books folks. And while not likely, it’s not outside the realm of possibility.

 

Johnny Cueto as a Lance McCullers, random injury replacement wouldn't hurt my feelings. This could also push back the clock on Hunter Brown.