Crane says he is willing to go over tax threshold. Abreu plus JV is a real possibility ... as long as the Dodgers/Yankees do not give JV crazy money/years. My WAG is that by mid December, JV will know what his market value is and then decide to stay or go.
I still think Verlander will be back. I know money is important, but he is also looking for chances to win. I'm not thinking he is going to give some drastic discount, but I do think both sides can work out a deal. The Mets have several holes to fill. The Yankees are the Yankees. They have some real issues with their depth, and Judge might be gone. Their farm system isn't stacked. I can see a Dodgers play here, but they too have several holes to fill on their end.
I think that all 4 of those teams will be at play but still expect him to return. Don't really see any other team as realistic, though the Phillies would be interesting. JV has made his preference for east coast and Florida Spring training so I say Dodgers as least likely. Yankees will really need to move into Grorge from Hal territory to sign both Judge and JV and I do not see them outbid for Judge. Mets already have Scherzer as aging high AAV pitcher and prefer for DeGrom to return. I think JV gets offers from all then tells Crane who comes close enough to matching it that he signs 2 yrs + vesting option. They will get 2 bats also. I think Abreu is almost certain. But who the 2nd is depends on whether JV returns and at what price. Regardless the Astros are over CBT for 2023 and 2024.
Give me JV, Vazquez, Yuli. If this happened I would look for trading for another bat at the deadline.
This isn't a clear-cut situation IMO. There is a chance that Verlander gets hurt or has a decline in performance and at $40,000,000 a year, that is a massive investment. On the other hand, it is a lot harder to add an ace, especially at the trade deadline. The Mariners paid a lot for Luis Castillo at the deadline, and he is more of an ace in the same way Valdez is, than Verlander is. Getting bats at the deadline are usually cheaper, especially if it is for a player than will be a free agent. Would you rather have one of: Abreu, Contreras, Bell; and one of: Bellinger, Belt, J. Turner, Hannigar Or Verlander and a second tier bat (Brantley, Longoria, W. Meyers) that will depend on who doesn't get the contract that they want.
I love your optimism. If we keep J.V. AND get Abreu I'd be estatic. I'm just not sure how likely that is.
Do you think Crane would go deep enough into tier one luxury tax to keep Verlander and sign a top bat?
Rather overpay for JV and supplement the bats they have, vs. overpay for a bat and expect the rest of the pitching to continue to carry them. At this point, JV more likely to have a random old man injury (another calf strain, ankle sprain) than he is likely to require another major arm surgery or just fall off a cliff due to age related decline. His stuff was still good throughout this season, with post TJ restrictions/etc. And maybe he does need the 6 man rotation to help spell him throughout. Nobody here can argue with the results based on what just happened this last season. I think the entire staff benefits from the built-in rest. LMJ is a little more worrisome in my mind. Both in terms of his stuff... and his risk of re-injury (or making the current injury worse). Hunter Brown still green. Urquiddy/Garcia still can reliable but neither expected to ascend to ace-status. JV/Framber/Javier is another championship-level rotation.
FWIW I have heard that the Dodgers and Blue Jays are the two teams that value Verlander the most. The Blue Jays are trying to clear some more contracts in an effort to get more money. The Dodgers are like the Astros, and willing to offer more AAV on a short contract. Some people around the Astros think that the Dodgers will eventually sign Verlander because they will offer an AAV higher than the Astros will. Also, supposedly Verlander is interested in pitching at Dodgers Stadium to see how well he would do in that environment. If the Astros lose Verlander, it isn't the end of the teams run, they have money to add at least one top bat on a shorter contract like Abreu and Contreras and probably a secondary bat as well. The Astros are supposedly higher on defense than they were before (and it was already high). I don't think that keeps the Astros from Abreu (who is an average 1st baseman through hard work) and Bell as well.... but it will likely give them some limitations in LF.
Thanks. I know those players exist. The condescension is appreciated though. Did any of those guys get 3 year deals at 40? I suspect they all were operating on 1 year deals. Why? Because FO have traditionally had concerns about old players regarding injuries and performance, no matter their pedigree. Old players don’t always age gracefully with a slow and steady decline. You can fall off quick at the end.
In the short term? Yes, but I don't think he looks at it the way most fans do or some teams. I think he values each player individually, and won't go over what he feels their value is. However, for a good deal, that also helps the team, I believe he would extend himself over what the discussed budget amount. I also expect Abreuw to sign soon
This is a huge get for the Astros. The line-up (assuming health) has greatly improved. The power was down some last year but the advanced stats and bat speed are still very strong.
