Walker in my opinion would be a worthwhile player to pursue. Varsho not so much. The Astros outfield depth is more than adequate For 2023 and well beyond. 2023 Internal Options Outfield (from my Spring training list) Tucker Leon McCormick Alvarez Meyers Dirden 2023 Internal Options First Base (from my Spring training list) Perez Wagner Schriber Matijevic Diaz 1st base/3rd catcher Lee catcher/1st base Hensley bench IF/1st base Julks bench IF/1st base
Bregman had the highest OOA of any third baseman in MLB. There is no way that his dWAR could be 0.0. Something is wrong there.
I'm using Baseball Reference and double checked it. Under Player Value. 2022 War 4.5, oWAR 5.0, dWAR 0.0. But any spreadsheet can have an input error. I show OAA fifth (8 OAA), but it still doesn't match up. I m showing Hayes Number 1 (18 OAA) at 3B which matches up with a 3.0 dWAR. Interestingly, Walker,who has also been mentioned, has the highest OAA at 1B with 14 OAA which is the neighborhood I would expect from Bregman there. Get them both, move Altuve to DH and correct the presumed error with Bregman's dWAR and we'd have a defense for the ages. If the error is confirmed, then moving Hayes to 2B and Walker to 1B works. 1B Walker 2B Hayes 3B Bregman SS Pena
I see with not much action in the offseason this thread is going off the rails again.... Hayes signed an 8 year extension which has 7 years plus an option left. Jim Crane doesn't do 7 year deals. Until Crane signs Tucker or Pena to a deal longer than 6 years stop wasting time with trades that involve a mega long contract coming to the Astros.
They are showing Machado at 0.0 dWAR also and he's in 4th place of OAA. It's looking like a spreadsheet error.
He's locked in at about 12M AAV. The investment is far less at that cost. As far as going off the rails, this is outside the box speculation. I realize some are not comfortable with that. But I speculated about Greinke on the old MLB.com message board a month before it happened.
Bagwell was a bat first prospect for a team that had very few established major leaguers, but a gold glove calibur veteran 3B happened to be one of them Oh yeah on a team that would challenge for 100 losses. Not exactly a comparable situation to Bregman.
No way. Just noting outside the box thinking occasionally happens in real life by real GMs and real owners. Batting averages are really low for this type of speculation. But they are not ZERO.
Nothing is an exact fit. But it worked out well. Did Bagwell fall apart because he moved to 1B? Or did he prosper? I do know he worked hard to become the best he could be here. But anyway, if the dWAR stats are wrong about Bregman's defensive fall at 3B, then the point is moot anyway. I know the eye test (which can be deceiving) doesn't indicate a fall off. I just don't want to be lulled into turning him into an Astro's Jeter where the eye test contradicts objective stats. Or pull a Yankee and start your best SS at 3B because of an undeserved reputation.
Why the hell would Pittsburgh even consider moving Hayes? He is just starting his years of control and has huge upside. He is EXACTLY the kind of player they would be looking to acquire
I think Crane would take that contract on in a heartbeat. Crane doesn’t do big large 8 year deals, but a deal that buys out control years and adds two on top would be very desirable Takes two teams to deal though and he might be at the top of the list of guys Pitt wouldn’t move along with Cruz
If you have the opportunity to lock up a player for 8 years for $100M and you would be willing to lock them up at 6 years for $100M, why would the 2 years be a detriment? It's not the years alone, it is the package price. What they aren't willing to do is pay FA price over ARB years. For instance, Tucker is expected to receive $30M over the next 3 years of arbitration. Assume for purposes of illustration his on-field value if a FA is $35M annually. Then an acceptable package would be $30M plus 3x $35M or 6 years $135M. But 6 years $210M would be an overpay because of his Arbitration years. That is what the Astros will not do.
You are right. Bagwell did not fall apart but my points are: 1) the Astros at the time had several open positions on the roster and no expectations to win. Therefore no pressure or downside to experimenting. 2) the Astros at the time had a young established, controllable 3B that was gold glove calibur so Bagwell was blocked. He had to move or go back to the minors. Bregman is certainly not blocked lol. Also, as a 1B Bregman would make significantly less in free agency. He only has 2 years left on his current contract, so it would hurt him personally and be the kind of move that really pisses players off about the Astros as an organization. FYI: mlb.com just named the best defenders in 2022 by OOA. Bregman was the best 3B in the AL according to the story.
I'm not suggesting the price would not be steep. Just that it is something that could improve the Astros by trade that is not mentioned. In this case, you would have to see if several players with minimal MLB experience or MLB ready prospects which may advance their rebuild schedule would be of interest to them or not. And even if so, would that cost be acceptable enough for both parties to agree. Most people seem to think that putting forth possibilities is a recommendation to take action. It is not.
Thanks. I was using Baseball Prospectus. All these sights tend to use different methodologies to attempt to get to their idea of the perfect tool. But after seeing two players near or at the top of OAA with a 0.0 dWAR from Baseball Reference, I suspect a data entry error. I haven't figured out how to navigate the BP site to see their pWAR for Bregman and Machado.
What the player gains in a buy out of Arb years is the security of a guaranteed contract vs the year to year nature of arbitration. With that understanding the player is willing to accept a lower AAV for the certainty of guaranteed payment over a longer period of time. An injury or a bad year is a big concern for a young player especially when his future value is relatively unknown. The earlier the buyout the more risk the team is taking on and a lower the expected AAV should also be.
