What bothers me about the Graveman/Neris deals is that if this front office is as smart as we all give them credit for, why aren't they looking for the next Gravemen instead of paying the last one? A year ago, Graveman was a nobody and was super-cheap. Middle relievers are so fickle and I'd much rather the Astros use their genius and identify a couple of $1MM guys they believe have potential.
Maton may already be that guy. I also don’t think any front office consistently hits on every middle relief project… but the Astros have hit on their fair share thus far over the years. Once they prove to excel (as Pressly has), you do consider paying them especially when you’re in win now mode.
They still do that. Nick mentioned Maton. I would say guys like Stanek and possibly Montero this season fit that bill as well. They didn't guarantee Neris 17 million over 2 years to be a middle reliever. He will be the 8th inning guy until he proves he isn't or someone else proves they are. They obviously see something in Neris to give him that money. Hopefully he isn't another miss like Baez.
And that's the problem, if Neris becomes a "miss" you are still paying that 17 million, on top of the 12.5 you are paying Baez. 29.5 million to try and find an 8th inning guy. In a sport where you have a spending limit, that's a lot of cash
This front office has pretty much turned over since I last gave them credit for that. The best I can say about it now is "we shall see".
The Astros are fortunate their young/cheap starting pitchers like Urquidy, Framber, Garcia, and Javier have done well. That allows them to spend in other areas like the bullpen. Honestly, I would rather the Astros take a shot on a couple reliever in free agency than have to give up a bunch of talent from the MLB roster or minors when they are desperate at the deadline like last season. Giving up Toro, De La Cruz, and Straw stings. Plus, all these relievers are on short term deals. You aren't stuck with them for 4, 5, or 10 years. Toro didn't have a longterm position here so that takes some of the sting away. De La Cruz would have been a nice piece to have right now considering how Brantley is always banged up, and De La Cruz isn't an everyday CFer but can cover the position on occasion which would be another nice option while Jake Meyers is expected to miss the start of the season. De La Cruz put up some decent numbers for the Marlins offensively and had a .296 AVG, 5 HRs, .783 OPS, and a 113 OPS+. Fangraphs had Straw with a 3.7 WAR last season plus he was a finalist for the gold glove and he has 4 more years of team control. That's a lot of value to give up for 2.5 years of a middle reliever (Maton) and a minor league catcher that might be taken away via the rule 5 draft when the lockout ends. For reference, 3.7 WAR is tied with Yordan and ahead of Yuli, McCullers, and Brantley last season. Tucker, Altuve, and Correa were the only Astros with a higher WAR than Straw..... I'd prefer to only need like 1 more bullpen guy at the deadline. Not have to overhaul the whole thing and bring in 4 new relievers every year. That will put a big dent in the minor league talent if you have to do that every year.
https://theathletic.com/3062181/202...the-team-carlos-correas-free-agency-and-more/ The Athletic's 2022 Houston Astros fan survey Spoiler What are your realistic expectations for the 2022 Astros? Runaway AL West winners, another deep playoff run Eke out a division title, maybe win a round Wild-card team Miss the playoffs altogether How many games will the Astros win this season? 95 or more 90-94 85-89 84 or fewer How would you grade the Astros' offseason to date? A B C D F Please add any additional feedback/elaborate on your position After the lockout ends, which position do you most want the Astros to address in free agency or via trade? Shortstop Center fielder Corner outfielder (move Kyle Tucker to center field) Reliever Other: At shortstop, what do you think the Astros should do? Give Jeremy Peña a chance to win the starting job; Aledmys Díaz can back him up Sign Carlos Correa for 10 years and $300 million or more Sign Trevor Story to a long-term deal, albeit one shorter in length than what Correa will get Sign a stopgap like Andrelton Simmons or Jonathan Villar to give Peña more time in Triple A Other: How do you feel about the Astros' approach to Carlos Correa's free agency? How confident are you in Jim Crane and the Astros' ownership group? Not confident at all — 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Very confident Please add any additional feedback/elaborate on your position How would you rate James Click's work as the Astros' general manager? Poor — 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Excellent Please add any additional feedback/elaborate on your position How would you rate Dusty Baker's performance as the Astros' manager? Poor — 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 — Excellent Please add any additional feedback/elaborate on your position Will the Astros win another World Series during this decade? Yes No Will the Astros rebuild again during this decade? Yes No Who will lead the Astros in WAR in 2022? Kyle Tucker Jose Altuve Alex Bregman Yordan Alvarez Yuli Gurriel Justin Verlander Lance McCullers Jr. Framber Valdez Other: If the Astros extend only one of these two players, which would you prefer they sign? Yordan Alvarez Kyle Tucker Which of these up-and-coming Astros pitchers will have the best career? José Urquidy Luis Garcia Cristian Javier Who is the Astros' center fielder of the future? Jake Meyers Chas McCormick Jose Siri Pedro León Other: Which of these Astros prospects will have the best career? Jeremy Peña Korey Lee Hunter Brown Forrest Whitley Pedro León
The Athletic's 2022 Houston Astros fan survey What are your realistic expectations for the 2022 Astros? Runaway AL West winners, another deep playoff run How many games will the Astros win this season? 95 or more How would you grade the Astros' offseason to date? B, Good but not great After the lockout ends, which position do you most want the Astros to address? Other: Bench infielder At shortstop, what do you think the Astros should do? Give Jeremy Peña the starting job. How do you feel about the Astros' approach to Carlos Correa's free agency? OK; they have been honest but I would prefer they set a deadline. How confident are you in Jim Crane and the Astros' ownership group? 4 Confident How would you rate James Click's work as the Astros' general manager? 2 Fair How would you rate Dusty Baker's performance as the Astros' manager? 2 Fair Will the Astros win another World Series during this decade? Yes at least one Will the Astros rebuild again during this decade? No. They will continue replacing individual pieces as needed Who will lead the Astros in WAR in 2022? Kyle Tucker If the Astros extend only one of these two players, which would you prefer they sign? Kyle Tucker, rather than Alvarez Which of these up-and-coming Astros pitchers will have the best career? Luis Garcia Who is the Astros' center fielder of the future? Near term - Jake Meyers Other: Long term - Colin Barber Which of these Astros prospects will have the best career? Jeremy Peña
I completely disagree. When a team is in win now mode young unproven players at positions of surplus must be used to strengthen the weaker areas. I am surprised how little the team gave up to strengthen the bullpen. Toro is a nice player but hardly a future all-star plus each of his positions is filled by a better player. Straw is severely lacking in run production ability and has an outdated skill set. The team CORRECTLY identified that Meyers and possibly McCormick had surpassed him so he was replaceable. De La Cruz is a AAAA outfielder. Wasn't even among the 10 best outfield prospects in the organization and hardly irreplaceable.
Because Luhnow left the building. The Stros are just like every other org with an analytical dept now. Click's main strength is scouting both draftable players and IFA guys. Let's hope he hits a home run in these areas.
What are your realistic expectations for the 2022 Astros? Runaway AL West winners, another deep playoff run How many games will the Astros win this season? 95 or more How would you grade the Astros' offseason to date? B - Agree with not overpaying Correa, would have liked to have seen a longer contract offered After the lockout ends, which position do you most want the Astros to address in free agency or via trade? Center fielder At shortstop, what do you think the Astros should do? Give Jeremy Peña a chance to win the starting job; make a move at the trade deadline if Pena doesn't work out How do you feel about the Astros' approach to Carlos Correa's free agency? Appropriate, although I would have liked to have seen another year on the contract proposal How confident are you in Jim Crane and the Astros' ownership group? Confident 4 out of 5 How would you rate James Click's work as the Astros' general manager? Good - 4 out of 5 How would you rate Dusty Baker's performance as the Astros' manager? Good - 4 out of 5 Will the Astros win another World Series during this decade? Yes Will the Astros rebuild again during this decade? Yes Who will lead the Astros in WAR in 2022? Alex Bregman If the Astros extend only one of these two players, which would you prefer they sign? Kyle Tucker over Alvarez Which of these up-and-coming Astros pitchers will have the best career? José Urquidy Who is the Astros' center fielder of the future? Jake Meyers Which of these Astros prospects will have the best career? Forrest Whitley
Other than TB, the other 29 teams haven't really cracked relief. Though, it looks like the way TB has cracked relief is to depend on farm system, trading anyone who gets expensive, such that they have the flexibility to cycle through a ton of young and/or cheap guys until they find who's pitching well in relief in a given year. The Astros having a lot of good players they are unwilling to trade prevents Astros from doing exactly what TB is doing. I expect the Astros are trying to go towards something similar though keeping more of their players, but are trying to use some FA signings to bridge the gap until 40-man roster (too many injuries last couple of years clogging up spots) and farm system are more suitable for that strategy.
You are missing my point. Yes, they were in "win now mode" and had to address the bullpen at the deadline. However, they should have been in "win now mode" before the season started. They didn't do enough to bolster the pitching staff and found themselves in a position where they needed to add 4 relievers at the deadline. The reliever market last offseason was DIRT cheap and I was pretty vocal that they didn't do enough to help the pen at the time with just the Baez,Stanek, Raley, and Cishek moves. Instead they went into the regular season relying on young guys that hadn't even played a full MLB season like Scrubb, Paredes, etc. They were also relying on Joe Smith to have a major role in the pen after sitting out for a year in his late 30s. I also pointed out they needed as many arms as possible because outside of Greinke they did not have 1 starter that had thrown 150 innings in an MLB season. Later on Odorizzi changed that but we didn't get him until Framber went down in spring training. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021-mlb-free-agent-tracker/positions-rp Chafin 1 year 2.75 million Tepera 1 year 800k Petit 1 year 2.55 million Melancon 1 year 3 million McHugh 1 year 1.8 million Jake McGee 2 years 5 million with some escalators and a possible 3rd year TJ Macfarland minor league deal Aaron Loup 1 year 3 million Ian Kennedy minor league deal made around 2 million Kendall Graveman 1 year 1.25 million plus some incentives Brad Boxbeger minor league deal You could have built a hell of a bullpen on the cheap and maybe not needed to rebuild the pen at the deadline. Maybe they could have landed someone else instead like a Starling Marte that they were interested in if they didn't have to rebuild half the pen. Also, a "win now" team should have been in on the Raisel Iglesias trade last offseason. The Reds basically gave him away in a salary dump for Noe Ramirez and a PTBL that ended up being the Angels 25th ranked prospect. Astros should have been all over that. They had the money too because that was well before Odorizzi was signed. Would have made a lot of sense too after failing to land liam Hendriks that they apparently went after pretty hard. So yes, Click did a nice job fixing the pen at the deadline, but maybe he gets some blame for being in that situation to begin with after not doing enough in the offseason....
Did Baez die or get released? The complete story has yet to be told about Baez, lets tap the brakes a bit. It's amazing how all of the signing success stories get ignored and everybody focuses on Baez to prove a point. What if Neris is more like Pressley or Stanek?
He's a sinker/slider guy so naturally he's going to perform significantly worse against opposite handed hitters. Neris has an odd profile. He outperformed Graveman significantly last season in xERA (2.99 vs 3.79), however most of that was driven by Neris having a ridiculous xBA (.185 vs .288), and indeed a super low xBA is something that he's done year after year with his highest single-season xBA going back to 2015 being .236 in 2020. However, at the same time, he gives up a lot of homeruns. He is also similar to Maton in having a big K% but issues limiting walks. Maybe the Astros see Neris with his gaudy K% and near-elite xERA in two of the past three seasons as providing Neris with higher upside than Graveman who was probably as good as he's ever going to be last season although probably has the higher floor.
Baez, Stanek, Maton, and Neris are the kind of guys that casual fans hate and the "smart" saber crowd tend to like or at least see upside in, but outside of Stanek, the Astros have paid the casual fan price for these guys. It would be one thing if they were signing these guys at discounts, but that's generally not what has been happening. Some fans crowed about how we rebuilt the pen without "giving up any prospects" but Steamer600 has Toro and Straw both above 2 WAR for 2022, with Toro having the highest projected WAR of any position player on the entire team (lol). That's a good amount of value even if they avoided trading someone like Hunter Brown.
My take is that they probably acquired underrated RP (Maton, Montero) but gave up underrated young players (Straw, Toro). Straw pretty much is what he is so his value depends heavily on how defense and speed is valued which tends to vary by source, but Toro is one of those prospects who between his graduation timeline (wasn’t in the upper minors long enough to get real prospect hype) and his well-rounded skill set (which could also be described as “a lack of an elite tool”) tends to be grossly overlooked. Toro has a high likelihood of being a decent everyday player and a better than probably expected chance of being a borderline star player. I was bummed he was traded for a rental reliever; maybe Montero makes good and recoups some of that value.
