I have mixed feelings on Neris but I would have preferred to bring back Graveman even with having to guarantee a 3rd year. Neris lost his job as a closer because he blew a bunch of saves. It was mentioned in here that Neris had a 2.70 ERA in the 2nd half of the season when he was no longer the closer but that isn't the full picture. He had one really good month in August where he only gave up 1 run and had a 0.67 ERA. In July he gave up 9 runs and had a 6.94 ERA and in September he gave up 8 runs and had a 4.15 ERA. However, his projections are very similar to Graveman for next season. Some of the advance stats indicate that Graveman was very lucky the 1st half of the season and some of that luck ran out the 2nd half of the year. Hopefully the Astros can work with Neris and get the most out of him. He was messing with a slider last season. Maybe he can get with McCullers and learn the Peacock/McHugh slider. My biggest concerns though are Neris gives up some home runs and he has zero playoff experience. Graveman pitched very well in the post season with an ERA under 2 and a WHIP right at 1.00. He gave up 1 HR in the playoffs. Neris gave up 12 Home Runs last year. For reference, Stanek gave up 8 and Raley who seemed like he was constantly giving up big home runs only gave up 6. Graveman is excellent at keeping the ball in the park. He only gave up 3 HRs in the regular season last year. Neris gave up 4 in September alone. That's not something I want in a setup man especially in the post season.
I really hope Neris is a serviceable late inning guy…if he falters, and if Baez continues to struggle, this board may riot.
They could both be nails for 4 months and the board would riot when one of them gave up a run. I expect at least one will pitch well or the Astros will add a reliever or 2 at the deadline.
As far as Baez, I'm hoping the team is openly expressing confidence as a way to make the rest of the league feel one way, and then somehow salary dump him. His injuries, and declining velo, are huge red flags. Not a big fan of the Neris signing but the Astros seem to be confident. I'd like to take a flier on Hunter Strickland for a 1 year $2M or so deal. I'm well aware of his history of giving up playoff homers but he had a good year with the Brewers with solid peripherals and doesn't seem to have much market interest. Then roll with who we have and re-evaluate at the deadline. Would you be happy with a pen of: Pressly/Stanek/Neris/Maton/Strickland/Taylor/Javier/AAAA With the "AAAA" being one of Solomon, Dubin, Bielak, or James (if not traded)
You forgot Montero and one of Urquidy/Odorizzi (unless traded). Your fantasy of trading Baez isn't happening either. Astros would have to eat money because he is owed a 2 million dollar buyout for 2023 as well. They will give him a shot and see what his arm has left in spring training.
If there is one area we should trust Click with, it’s the bullpen. Coming up to the 500 foot level, the 2021 bullpen performance was a success. Not perfect, not hitting on all moves, but a clear success. We got enough performance out of it in the regular season, and click made the right moves at the deadline, and the back end of the bullpen performed well in the playoffs… frankly way better than any of us thought they would. Entering the playoffs, that was thought to be the huge question mark. With the miss on Baez and meh on Yimi, we also have to consider bullpen usage and development, the unexpected good seasons from Raley and Stanek, the acquisitions of Maton and Graveman, the successful tweaking of Matons performance ( which in my mind draws some comparisons to Luhnows acquisition of pressly). As a whole, this had the hallmarks of TBs approach of strength in numbers bullpen arms, many of whom are the “where the hell did that guy/performance come from” types. (now if only the market for Correa could crater and drive him to a 6-7 year deal with us.)
I don't disagree with any of this and I have no idea what Neris, I just think Gravemen was hit or miss and not this lights out guy we had to bring back. I trust Click most of all and they must see something in this guy.
I remember Graveman just completely unraveling down the stretch. Definitely wasn't comfortable with him on the mound at times. In his defense, Dusty had a weird way of using him pretty often and that could have definitely messed with his head.
I think you need to recalibrate the phrase "completely unraveling". There was the one game with the Toro HR. Otherwise, he was fine albeit likely fatigued given he'd not pitched in relief for a full season ever before. He was very important in the playoffs... key reason why they moved on in each series before the last one.
Dusty usually used him as the set up man to get to the closer until he started struggling, what do you think was weird?
He said towards the end of the season that he was physically and more importantly mentally fatigued because he had not pitched for that long a stretch in a long time. I was surprised the Astros didn't increase their offer to keep him the little bit more he wanted, but some of the advanced stats showed he would likely not be as dominant in the future. Either way, he was overall very good for the Astros.
Towards the end of the year, a lot of Left-handed hitters were getting some VERY good swings on Graveman. I’m talking rockets and very hard hit balls either right at guys or to the warning track. I think there was some luck involved but he was lights out against righties all year long. Ultimately, he served his purpose and pitched well enough to be a set up man on a pennant winning team. The third year is what put the White Sox deal over the top. We’ll be fine
I suspect part of it is that he was a low volume reliever last year - he only pitched like 55 innings and even that fatigued him it seems. And, of course, he pretty much sucked prior to 2021. I think it's also crazy to spend that kind of money on Neris, but he has a steadier track record and a history of being able to handle more innings.
Agreed. I heard they wanted Neris around the same time I heard they were not going to increase the length of the deal with Graveman.... then Graveman lowered their asking price and they still were not budging. I thought they wanted Neris as a flyer or in addition to Graveman and I was wrong... they took the money they were offering to Graveman and gave it to Neris. The Astros have earned the benefit of the doubt, and I know some of the advanced metrics on Neris are solid.... but there is also a long track record of mediocrity there.... so I am concerned, but Miller really thinks he can fix him.
As would I. The Astros obviously did not expect Graveman to be as good in 2022 as he was in 2021. They made their offer and wouldn't increase the years to match other offers and when he asked for a little more on a shorter deal, the Astros passe. This is Click trusting Joshua Miller and his staff. Miller wanted Maton as well and he has been the one that has been coming up with a lot of reclamation projects that were then ran by Strom and then sold to Click. Miller has a long rope right now. They think that pitch selection and philosophy are why he has given up so many homers. Agreed.... we don't need another Peacock or James giving up homers.
Neris' split is a weapon in a way that Graveman just doesn't have. Most elite relievers get there because they have an unhittable secondary. Gravemans profile as a turbo sinkerballer is likely to run into greater handedness issues and he isn't going to be elite at making guys swing and miss. I do like having different looks in the pen, so you have the option to mix and match, but I think the Neris move makes a lot of sense. Blake Treinen had some similarities with Graveman, and he went from the best reliever in baseball to sub replacement in a season. He got back to elite last year by competing scrapping the sinker vs Lefties.
To be determined. Graveman was better against lefties than Neris last season. It's not that I think Graveman is going to be some all world guy. My point was I would lean Graveman over Neris including the contracts they each received as part of the equation. The bullpen market isn't that deep this offseason. Raisel Iglesias would have probably been my favorite guy but as soon as he got a qualifying offer he most likely fell off the radar for the Astros. Kenley Jansen probably wasn't an option because of his likely price tag and I doubt he would come here anyway. So you look at the next tier and it is Graveman, Knebel, Neris, Hudson, and maybe Melancon. I like Knebel's stuff a lot but he has been injury prone the last 2 seasons. He received a 1 year 10 million dollar deal. Not sure the Astros would have touched that. Hudson got a 1 year 7 million dollar deal with the Dodgers. He was really good for the Nationals before being traded at the deadline, but did have an elbow issue in June. Then he struggled down the stretch as a Padre. Melancon had a great year but he isn't a swing and miss guy which I prefer in the playoffs. He received 2 years 14 million. I understand why the Astros ended up on Neris with his intriguing stuff. The market gets pretty thin after that, and Neris has been for the most part healthy and available in his career. Tepera would have interested me before he opened his mouth in the ALDS accusing the Astros of still cheating. After that the market gets pretty thin. McHugh was good but he's not a guy I want in the 8th inning role. Mychal Givens doesn't throw enough strikes. Kirby Yates is coming off TJ surgery. Ian Kennedy fell apart after being traded to the Phillies. I would still like another arm for the pen, but not sure where they could go. Maybe Chafin as a lefty but he will be a little pricey. I wonder if Trevor Rosenthal could be had on a cheap 1 year prove it deal with incentives and a 2nd year team option after missing last season with hip surgery and a shoulder issue. Astros probably won't take that risk, but I want as many filthy arms in the pen as we can get for the playoffs.
Much of this will only be as good as Dusty's decisions. It's one thing to have a guy in the bullpen who is good at X It doesn't if Dusty calls on "his guys" in the situation Y guy should be good in.
