Arenado's RC+ (park adjusted) was still better than his road splits as a Rockie. His OPS went up 50 points. Arenado would be just another data point that shows guys improve at hitting in other ball parks than Coors when they leave the Rockies while most players at his age have their stats drop. If looking at away stats, he improved a lot away as a Cardinal with a .279 BA, .888 OPS and a 130 RC+. His problem was hitting at home in St Louis, one of the better pitcher parks last season, vs hitting in Colorado.
It's pretty obvious why there would be interest in Mullins. The options to improve the offense are pretty limited. CF, C, and SS are the obvious positions to improve offensively. Catcher is unlikely because the Astros love Maldonado behind the plate and the only name that has even been mentioned in rumors about being available is Wilson Contreras. Doesn't make a ton of sense to give up a bunch of assets for 1 year of Contreras when you have Korey Lee in AAA. SS the choices seem to be Correa, Story, or a stop-gap (Simmons, Iglesias) plus Pena. CF became more of an issue with Meyers having a serious shoulder injury and surgery. Plus, an article a week or 2 ago said the Orioles will listen on offers for Mullins. So that is why people are talking about him. You bring up an interesting point with Mullins regarding his age. Both MLB and MLBPA have made CBA offers that include free agency starting at age 29.5. MLBPA wants free agency after whichever comes first... 5 years of service time or 29.5. The owners wanted everyone a free agent at 29.5 regardless of service time. Mullins just turned 27 on October 1st. If he becomes a free agent when he hits 29.5 that means he will have one less year of control (3 instead of 4) and would reduce his value some.
Those are valid points, I still don’t see the value in selling the farm for a player that’s had one great season personally. I’m fine with an upgrade in CF, I’m also fine rolling with Meyers until Leon is ready too.
Why would a Philly team trying to reach the playoffs trade Nola? And if they did, I'm sure they'd demand a lot more for an ace with 2/$31M left on his deal. His "down" year last year won't make the Phillies forget who he is. If we were to make a trade, a guy to slot between JV & LMJ in a postseason roster would be ideal. More likely we'll just have to hope for a step forward from Garcia/Valdez or emergence from Hunter Brown or Forest Whitley (though concern about workload on those 2 would be a problem).
Meyers had a torn labrum which is a very serious injury. He had a weak arm before this and it probably will be even weaker now. Plus, who knows how it impacts his swing. I view this injury as more serious than tommy john. The recovery is absolute hell. The articles on his surgery said "not expected to return to game competition before opening day." Until Meyers makes it back and is actually performing well I expect nothing from him. The lockout preventing him from using the Astros facilities to rehab doesn't help either. Leon needs to step it up big time. He's had some flashes where he got hot at the plate, but I'm not convinced yet that he's a starter in MLB. The Astros have to make some moves to improve the offense. Mullins is just one of the names being thrown out. The price would be high but there is nothing left in the CF free agent market. Kris Bryant in the giant CF in Minute Maid makes little sense. So unless the Astros want to move Tucker to CF and get a corner outfielder it's going to be tough to upgrade CF without a trade for Mullins, Reynolds, or maybe Ketel Marte who has injury problems and will cost a ton in prospects as well.
As for the Astros, centerfield and shortstop are the two areas they have been aggressive at trying to get production increases from or in the case of SS, at least not have a catastrophic decrease in production from. If Correa was coming back, the Astros would likely go with Meyers and McCormick there, but with Correa not coming back, they need to add production somewhere to make up for the loss and the two available spots are CF and catcher. The market to improve at catcher has been very limited and the Cubs were not highly motivated to trade Contreras. The appeal of Mullins is that IF the Astros believe his break out is legitimate, he is nearly a 6 WAR player with almost no real weaknesses. He can hit anywhere in the line up and is an above average centerfielder defensively. He also isn't going to cost the Astros very much financially. Adding Mullins also means that the Astros do not have to bring in a star shortstop..... although I will admit adding Mullins and Story would give the Astros an incredibly deep line up. Mullins Altuve Tucker Alvarez Bregman Gurriel Brantley Story Maldonado
In theory he could, but the reports were he'd be ready to start playing closer to opening day, which would mean a rehab assignment that puts him out to mid-late April. Given what they got from Siri/McCormick last year, I expect them to be in no rush to bring back Meyers.
Why would the Astros give up the farm for a guy in Mullins who's projected for a .800 OPS type season? He came out of nowhere last year and had what was in all likelihood a career season. He's good, but may not hit much better than McCormick/Meyers/Siri next season. Nothing in his minor league or draft profile would lead you to believe he's going to be a superstar, one year notwithstanding.
No way the Phillies trade Nola and if they do it would be for a monster prospect package. I think your Mullins trade is fair. If they dump Odo they could afford Story and not need to dump Brantley. CF Mullins 2B Altuve DH Alvarez 3B Bregman RF Tucker SS Story LF Brantley (with Leon stepping in after next season) 1B Gurriel (with Perez or Matijevic after next season) C Maldonado (with Lee stepping in after next season) That is a STACKED lineup.
Possibly if we re-sign Correa. If not I expect the Astros too role with Pena. Maybe take a run at Kris Bryant at CF. But most likely spend on a starter and use trade assets too get a CF like Mullins, Reynolds, K. Marte. Astros will upgrade at SS or CF or both. But it’s all indicative on Correa’s decision.
They value defense too highly to sign Bryant for CF or trade for Marte in CF. Reynolds isn't going to be traded anytime soon, and I think Mullins will cost more than the organization is willing to pay (in terms of prospects). I think we're more likely to make a move like that at the deadline than we are before the season starts.
If you believe Mullins figured it out, the asking price for him at the deadline will be much higher than it is now. If you want him, pay the price now to get your guy and focus on bullpen upgrades at the deadline.
There’s always something left to trade. We can only speculate and we don’t even know what the “significant offer” would entail. We got Kendall Graveman for Toro and Smith just last year.
FanGraphs just came out with the Angels Prospect list. Take out Reid Detmers, and it would probably take their top 20 guys to match Toro's value.
