I get this fear, but players struggle/get hurt in new environments regardless if they are leaving Coors or not. There is plenty of evidence that teams have this fear, and it is more likely that an ex-Rockie gets underpaid instead of overpaid because of this fear (i.e., this fear is a market inefficiency). On Story specifically, he gets more value from his defense and baserunning combined than he does with the bat. He's been an average bat away from Coors for his career (though well below average for the average Astro recently). He's only expected to be a slightly above average bat on a team other than the Rockie's. If Story is signing for what others think, he's going to have to be worse at the plate than he's been on the road or get hurt to not be worth it. He really isn't being paid much for the bat. My biggest issues with Story is that I think Pena is going to be able to provide some defense and baserunning value as well.
Shifting gears, which teams do you see as likely suitors of Odorizzi? Cardinals come to mind. Even after signing Matz, their #4 and #5 starters (after Waino, Flaherty, Matz) are really up in the air, and Odo can stabilize their 1-4. Mariners also look like a good fit, although do we want to trade him in our division and face him in revenge mode several times a year? I also think the Twins, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Rays could have interest to varying degrees.
I read that link all the way to the name Heyman and stopped. Just can't take anything he says too seriously.
I can see this, but if the Astros sign a Story for $20-$25MM/yr, I think fans will be pretty livid if he ends up being an average bat regardless of his defense and baserunning. Especially after watching the Astros let other fan-favorite star players go for not too much more than that (Morton, Springer).
If the Astros sign Story, he will likely be underappreciated in Houston. I expect he would be a slightly above average bat, but probably not enough for fans to appreciate versus the other hitters and Correa last season. Edit: Also, with how great Correa has been defensively lately, he will likely make Story look bad on defense as well. I could see Pena having a similar problem with fans. He could easily end up producing like Marisnick.
When the Astros went from Ken Caminiti to Dave Magadan at 3B, the fans definitely didn't embrace ole' Dave. I don't think anyone's gonna love Trevor Story's above-averageness if they see Correa playing like a star in another location.
Phil Nevin... ugh. Not a Jeter disciple, but if we kept Cammy and drafted Jeter over Nevin... we would have a generation worth of rings.
Between Bagwell, Biggio, Jeter, and Caminiti, Jeter is easily the weakest link defensively of that infield.
Looked up Magadan, and what a good season he had here (granted the numbers say he was awful defensively). The key is to have a terrible stopgap. It was easy to love Siri/McCormick/Meyers because they followed Straw instead of Springer (not that Straw was actually bad).
That was probably worst case. Hard to believe that the difference in salaries between the 2 were only 100k or so. McMullen. $&-#'=&#-
Fantasy Offseason, Story/Mullins Edition Estimated Tax Space, per Spotrac - $19M (I am aware they accidentally have Valdez at Pre-Arb, when he's in his 1st arb year. They also don't account for Gurriel's likely to be achieved incentives. The number they have is $24M but will be closer to $19M in true space). Trevor Story 6/$132M (22M AAV) - This is the big FA signing of this scenario. Plays SS, fills the void left by Correa without relying on a rookie. Now, onto the trades. Astros get: OF Cedric Mullins Orioles get: SS Jeremy Pena, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, RHP Pedro Baez, PTBNL(?) This is the primary trade of this rebuild. Mullins is an instant upgrade at CF, under control for 4 more years, one more at pre-arb salary. There is a risk of last year being a fluke but for reasons I've already dove in deep I'm confident his breakout is legit. Pena is the centerpiece (Story makes him movable), two young controllable pitchers with high ceilings are also included. Also snuck in a Baez salary dump. Clears a spot for Dubin to make his debut and hopefully develop into a weapon out of the pen. Astros get: RHP Aaron Nola, UTL Nick Maton Phillies get: OF Chas McCormick, RHP Jose Urquidy, RHP Misael Tamarez, OF Alex McKenna Houston adds another ace, and gets a lefty-hitting utility man. Philly gets much-needed help in the OF, and a plug-and-play successor to the rotation. I love Urquidy but Nola would definitely be an upgrade. He gives you 190 or so innings a year, and good ones. On a different form I saw a rumor that Philly likes our young OF and could look to make a trade involving a pitcher. That's where I got the idea, also time to do something different than the usual Bassitt trade. Also, trade Odo for a prospect to a team that needs rotation depth. Given that his contract isn't that bad, and seeing what guys like Matz and DeSclafani got, I think we can find a trade partner. Trade Michael Brantley as well. This is a tough one to do. But it's a needed salary dump, and overall the lineup is better than last year. As much as I love Uncle Mike, I think there are some warning signs visible- he's almost unplayable vs LHP, he's lost a step on defense, and he may be starting to run into injury problems again. Miami wants to contend with their young pitching core, and is looking for an OF bat. A fit? 1. Mullins CF 2. Altuve 2B 3. Tucker RF 4. Bregman 3B 5. Alvarez DH 6. Story SS 7. Gurriel 1B 8. Diaz LF; Placeholder until Meyers is healthy 9. Maldonado C Bench: Castro/N. Maton/Siri/Jones Rotation: LMJ/JV/Nola/Valdez/Garcia Pen: Pressly/Stanek/Neris/P. Maton/Taylor/Montero/Solomon/Dubin By my count, three spots on the 40-man are open to accommodate call-ups without immediately needing to DFA someone. The trades add about $18.9M in tax space (subtract Brantley, Baez, Odorizzi; add Nola). Add in Story's contract and we have $15.8M in space to work with at the deadline, and nearly all the big prospects as trade bait.
What is the love affair with Mullins? One good season isn’t enough to sell the farm for a 27/28 yr old undersized guy that is about to get paid.
Story worries me a lot. He's a career .241 hitter and .752 OPS away from Coors. Arenado just left Coors and his first year at St. Louis he basically matched his career BA, SLG, OBP, and OPS away from Coors. Story is also a strikeout machine away from Coors. He K's in 30.5% of his away plate appearances with 3.68 Ks per 1 walk. For reference Adam Dunn struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances for his career with 1.8 Ks per walk. He did show an improved strikeout rate last year away. It dropped to striking out in 26.7% of plate appearances. but his batting average also sunk to .203 away from Coors. He has way too much bust potential for my liking.
https://theathletic.com/3003250/202...ng-the-state-of-the-40-man-amid-mlbs-lockout/ Spoiler When MLB’s lockout ends and free agency resumes, the Astros will still have a lot of work to do. Will they acquire a shortstop or turn the position over to prospect Jeremy Peña? If it’s the latter, will they bring in another outfielder to inject more offense into their lineup? Will they add another arm or two for their bullpen? How about a trade of one of their excess starting pitchers? As of now, the Astros have 39 players on their 40-man roster. Their reported agreement with Justin Verlander, which the team has yet to make official, makes it a full 40. That means their first post-lockout, major-league free-agent signing (not including Verlander) will require a corresponding move. With all that in mind, and the rosters frozen for the time being, let’s delve into the Astros’ 40-man and examine the status of each position group and player, Verlander included: Pitchers (25) RHP Bryan Abreu 2021 review: Abreu made the Astros’ Opening Day roster and was leaned on quite a bit before he strained his calf in late May. He came back in July but the Astros’ slew of reliever acquisitions before the July 30 trade deadline buried him in Triple A. He made only one major-league appearance the rest of the year, an Aug. 29 outing in which he got torched by the Rangers for seven earned runs in two-thirds of an inning. In his 36 innings across 31 appearances, he had a 5.75 ERA but a more respectable 4.36 FIP. 2022 outlook: On a full-strength roster, Abreu is a depth reliever until further notice. In September 2019, he looked like a potential high-leverage weapon. He’ll still be only 25 next season, but the Astros are still waiting for him to put it all together again. RHP Pedro Báez 2021 review: Báez gave the Astros nothing in the first year of his two-year, $12.5 million free-agent contract. When he wasn’t out with vaguely described bouts of shoulder soreness, he was throwing 90 mph, 4-5 mph lower than he threw in 2020 and 5-6 ticks lower than 2018-19. In an attempt to counter his diminished stuff, he went changeup heavy. All told, his season consisted of merely 4 1/3 innings across four appearances. 2022 outlook: It’s one of the big unknowns facing the team for next year. The Astros cannot count on Báez to be a factor like they did coming into last season. A variety of outcomes are in play, but it’s plausible his days as a leverage arm are over. LHP Jonathan Bermudez 2021 review: A native of Puerto Rico whom the Astros drafted in the 23rd round in 2018 out of Southeastern University in Lakeland, Fla., Bermudez pitched his way into Rule 5 protection and a spot on the 40-man roster with a great 2021 season in Double A and Triple A. Between the two levels, he had a 3.24 ERA in 111 innings with 11.8 strikeouts per nine and 2.8 walks per nine. He doesn’t throw hard (only 89-93 mph with his rise-and-run four-seam fastball), but he throws strikes and has quality offspeed stuff, particularly an 82-to-85 mph changeup with big tailing action. 2022 outlook: Bermudez reached Triple A in only August of 2021, so he projects to begin back next season at the same level. He profiles as starter depth. If needed, he could potentially occupy a swingman role a la the recently waived Kent Emanuel before his elbow injury in 2021. RHP Brandon Bielak 2021 review: Bielak spent most of the season in the majors as a reliever, often in long relief, and was solid. He had a 4.50 ERA with a 4.07 FIP. His strikeout and walk percentages (21.1 and 9.6) were below average, but he did a good job of keeping the ball off the barrel and limiting hard contact. 2022 outlook: If he’s not needed as a long man next season, Bielak projects to begin in the Triple-A rotation, where he would represent rotation and bullpen insurance. RHP Shawn Dubin 2021 review: Dubin came into the season with some prospect momentum after an impressive showing with the Astros’ taxi squad during the 2020 postseason, but lateral inflammation in his elbow limited him to only 49 2/3 innings in Triple A in 2021. He had a 3.44 ERA when he did pitch, and his power stuff is too good for the Astros to have not added him to their roster in November as protection from the Rule 5 Draft. 2022 outlook: More time in Triple A is likely in the cards for Dubin, who could crack the majors next season as a reliever. RHP Luis Garcia RHP Tyler Ivey 2021 review: Ivey debuted in a spot start in May but missed most of the season because of an elbow injury. He made it back to Triple A in late September. 2022 outlook: If healthy, Ivey projects to begin in Triple A as starter/long reliever depth. RHP Josh James 2021 review: James missed the first few months of the season rehabbing from hip surgery and spent most of the rest of it in Triple A. During his rehab, he worked to shorten his arm action with the goal of improving his command. It did negatively impact his velocity, but he pitched well in a small sample in Triple A. 2022 outlook: It could be a make-or-break season for James’ tenure with the Astros. He projects to begin in Triple A on a full-strength roster but should get relief opportunities throughout the year. RHP Cristian Javier 2021 review: The Astros booted Javier from the rotation amid a starter surplus and to manage his workload but failed to find enough regular opportunities for him as a long reliever for much of the season. Command issues ensued, though he bounced back in time for the playoffs. He had a 3.55 ERA but a 4.43 FIP in 101 1/3 regular-season innings. Will the disjointed year and role uncertainty stunt his development? 2022 outlook: Javier profiles best as a starter, and the Astros have said they view him as a starter. But with Verlander back, Javier might be on the outside looking in at the Opening Day rotation. RHP Seth Martinez 2021 review: After coming over to the Astros from the A’s in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft, Martinez was a surprise late-season call-up amid a strong season in Triple A. He got only a cup of coffee in the majors, but that he was even added to the roster in the first place was a sign that the Astros think he can contribute. Martinez throws in only the low 90s, but his low release point and the extension he gets make his velocity play harder. 2022 outlook: Martinez projects to begin as one of the Astros’ many up-and-down relievers who will be called from Triple A as needed. For pitchers in that position, there’s always a chance they pitch their way into more opportunities. RHP Phil Maton RHP Lance McCullers Jr. RHP Rafael Montero 2021 review: Montero was quite bad for the Mariners before being designated for assignment in July and then being included in the Kendall Graveman-Abraham Toro trade before the deadline. He made only four appearances with the Astros before a lat strain in August prematurely ended his regular season. He got healthy in time to be an option for the ALCS and World Series, but the Astros didn’t include him on either roster. 2022 outlook: The Astros didn’t view Montero as a throw-in to the trade with the Mariners and are actually relatively high on him as a possible contributor in 2022. He’s out of minor-league options, so he projects to be in the Opening Day bullpen as long as he’s healthy. RHP Héctor Neris 2021 review: Pitching for the Phillies, Neris had a solid 3.63 ERA and 4.08 FIP in 74 1/3 innings. He was better in the second half. His 31.6 strikeout percentage was strong, but his 10.3 walk percentage was below average, and it was the second consecutive season in which his walk rate was considerably higher than his career average (8.8 percent). Walks to lefties, in particular, have been an issue. 2022 outlook: The Astros signed Neris to a two-year, $17 million deal to be part of their bridge to closer Ryan Pressly. He’s been a solid performer for a while now behind his splitter-fastball combo and has proven capable of carrying a relatively heavy workload for a modern reliever. RHP Jake Odorizzi 2021 review: A 4.21 ERA made Odorizzi your average major-league starting pitcher in his 104 2/3 regular-season innings after he signed a two-year, $23.5 million guarantee in March. The Astros clearly didn’t trust him to pitch important innings in the playoffs. 2022 outlook: If the Astros aren’t able to find a trade they like, Odorizzi looks like their seventh-best starter on a full-strength roster. That could translate to a back-end rotation spot (in the event of an injury or two) or a role as a long reliever. RHP Enoli Paredes 2021 review: After his encouraging rookie season in 2020, Paredes was a non-factor in 2021. He struggled mightily to throw strikes, and it led to him spending most of the season in Triple A, where his walk numbers remained high. 2022 outlook: Paredes projects to begin the season as depth in Triple A, and he will need to show significantly improved control to carve out a spot in the major-league bullpen. RHP Ryan Pressly
Spoiler RHP Jairo Solis 2021 review: Solis came into the season as one of the Astros’ best pitching prospects but had surgery in April to remove loose bodies from his elbow and then had Tommy John surgery in June, which ended his season. It was his second Tommy John surgery, and revisions generally take even longer to come back from. 2022 outlook: Solis is not expected to be a factor at the major-league level next season. His surgery date was June 28, so even the typical 12-to-14 month recovery timeline for a first-time Tommy John recipient would have made him questionable to make it back in 2022. RHP Peter Solomon 2021 review: Despite having previously not pitched above High A, Solomon elevated his stock in his comeback season from Tommy John surgery. He spent most of it as a starter in Triple A, where he had a 4.70 ERA in 97 2/3 innings, and got into six games in the majors, in which he allowed only two runs in 14 innings. 2022 outlook: Solomon, who’s likely to begin the season back in Triple A, projects as one of the Astros’ depth starters. RHP Ryne Stanek LHP Blake Taylor 2021 review: Taylor was solid but far from spectacular. He had a 3.16 ERA but a 4.62 FIP in his 42 2/3 innings. Walks (4.6 per nine) remained an issue and though he was great against left-handed hitters (.470 opponent OPS), righties got to him (.881 opponent OPS). 2022 outlook: Right now, Taylor looks like the only lefty in the Astros’ bullpen. They could be in the market to add another, though. RHP José Urquidy LHP Framber Valdez RHP Justin Verlander RHP Forrest Whitley 2021 review: Whitley missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery during spring training. 2022 outlook: Because his surgery was in March, Whitley probably won’t be ready for the start of the season. But he should be available for a good chunk of it, and he could pitch his way into being a factor as a depth starter or a reliever. Catchers (2) Jason Castro (L) 2021 review: Despite giving him a two-year, $7 million deal last offseason, the Astros treated Castro as a backup who catches once every four or five games as opposed to being part of a true tandem with Martín Maldonado. When he did play, Castro performed well. He had a 118 OPS+ in 179 plate appearances, and his go-ahead single against Nathan Eovaldi with two outs in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the ALCS was the biggest hit of that series against the Red Sox. 2022 outlook: The Astros could extract more offense from the catcher position by increasing Castro’s role, especially against right-handed starting pitchers, but it remains to be seen if manager Dusty Baker will go that route. Martín Maldonado 2021 review: Maldonado was the Astros’ workhorse No. 1 catcher, catching about 70 percent of the pitching staff’s innings in the regular season and starting all 16 of the postseason games. His value stemmed from his defense, namely his leadership and game calling, and his arm was a major factor in the playoffs. He was not unexpectedly terrible offensively, with a 58 OPS+ in 426 plate appearances in the regular season. Among the 188 major leaguers who got 400 or more plate appearances, his .573 OPS ranked 186th. Only Andrelton Simmons (.558) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.497) were worse. 2022 outlook: Expect Baker to lean on Maldonado as his no-doubt-about-it No. 1 catcher again next season in what will be Maldonado’s age-35 campaign. Infielders (7) 2B Jose Altuve 3B Alex Bregman UTIL Aledmys Díaz 1B Yuli Gurriel 1B/LF Taylor Jones 2021 review: Often on the proverbial shuttle between Houston and Sugar Land, Jones once again didn’t get much of an opportunity to prove himself in the majors. He did show promise when given regular playing time for a stretch in August, but the Astros rewarded him by signing Marwin Gonzalez and relegating Jones to Triple A for the rest of the year. 2022 outlook: If there’s a spot for Jones on the Astros’ full-strength roster, it’s as a righty bench bat to match up against lefties. But he seems more likely to find himself back in Triple A, a level he first reached in 2018. SS Jeremy Peña 2021 review: A broken wrist that required surgery in April cost Peña most of the season, but he made it back for 30 games in Triple A at the end of the season, got to practice with the taxi squad during the Astros’ run to the World Series and is making up more at-bats through winter ball in the Dominican Republic. 2022 outlook: Peña is expected to debut in the majors at some point next season, and it could be sooner rather than later. If one was to set odds on who will start the most games at shortstop for the Astros in 2022, he would be the current favorite. 3B/1B Joe Perez 2021 review: After injuries and the pandemic limited him to 54 games in his first three seasons as a pro, the 2017 second-round pick got in a full minor-league season in 2021. He began in Low A and reached Double A. Combined, he had an .849 OPS in 475 plate appearances. 2022 outlook: The Astros felt Perez’s ability to hit and general upside were too good to leave exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but it would be an upset if he cracked the majors next season. The 22-year-old still has a ways to go physically and his defense has been poor. He’s played mostly third base, but the Astros have also had him play some first base, which might be his ultimate landing spot. Outfielders (6) LF/DH Yordan Alvarez (L) LF/DH Michael Brantley (L) CF/RF/LF Chas McCormick 2021 review: McCormick was worth 2.3 bWAR and 1.9 fWAR as a rookie despite sporadic playing time for much of the season. He struck out a lot (32.5 strikeout percentage) and didn’t walk much (7.8 walk percentage), but 14 homers and 12 doubles in 320 plate appearances helped propel him to a 107 OPS+. 2022 outlook: Whether the Astros acquire another outfielder could determine whether McCormick begins next season as their starting center fielder or is their versatile fourth outfielder off the bench. CF Jake Meyers 2021 review: From being unselected in the Rule 5 draft last December to starting in center field in the ALDS, Meyers was the Astros’ biggest player development success story of the year. He had a 107 OPS+ in 163 plate appearances in August and September while playing great defense in center field. He emerged as the team’s preference in center over McCormick, garnering the start in three of the four ALDS games before he injured his shoulder in Game 4 in Chicago. 2022 outlook: A torn labrum in his left, throwing shoulder on which Meyers had surgery Nov. 10 is expected to cost him part of next season, though it’s unclear exactly how much of it. Before the operation, Meyers was the front-runner to be the Astros’ starting center fielder next year. He still might get there, but the injury creates some uncertainty about his 2022 role. CF Jose Siri 2021 review: After signing a minor-league deal in the offseason, Siri played well in Triple A and got called up in September. Baker took a liking to the former Reds prospect and played him a lot more than expected. The toolsy but unpredictable Siri even started in center field over McCormick four times in the final two rounds of the postseason. 2022 outlook: On paper, Siri is depth in Triple A who can be recalled and optioned as needed. (He has one minor-league option year remaining.) But if he finds his way onto the roster, Baker is probably going to play him. RF/CF Kyle Tucker (L) 2021 review: On the heels of his breakout in the shortened 2020 season, Tucker established himself as one of the game’s best all-around outfielders in 2021. He was worth 5.7 bWAR and 4.8 fWAR in 140 games and 567 plate appearances. 2022 outlook: It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Tucker is the Astros’ best player in 2022. He’s past due for a move to the top four in the batting order.
