Feels like maybe that’s the case. It definitely doesn’t give the impression that Dusty and Strom were communicating very well with each other. Strom, from what I’ve heard, is close to hanging them up, but he’s not fully there yet. He could easily go either way. The fact that he knows he doesn’t want it to continue here anymore though is disappointing.
Justin Verlander (39, 0.0) Noah Syndergaard (29, 0.0) Chris Archer (33, 0.2) Zack Greinke (38, 3.5) Carlos Rodón (29, 5.0) All of these guys would be good to take a look at. 2 of which are coming off of TJ surgery but may still be better than most on the list.
I don't think they would sign Contreras to an extension. I don't know that for sure but I have never heard that part mentioned. I suspect they would use him as a one year gap if the cost is reasonable. As for Baez, the Astros have a GM that was with the Rays front office. He is frugal (unless it is in the international market). While the Astros do have a lot of salary coming off the books, they also are trying to fill costly needs (top of rotation starter and star production at SS), so you couple that with bullpen needs.... and the money is going to be tight again in 2022. As for Brantley, that is my gut based on them making comment about maximizing payroll. Brantley makes $16,000,000 next year and they can try to shift someone else into his position at less money and then use that money to address shortstop or top of the rotation starter.
Contreras would be a trade and he will be in the final year of his contract. That would be a deal based on the thought that we can win another Championship now and what prospects are we willing to move for a guy who could help us do that
It seems unlikely that Click would sign Baez and Brantley only to turn around and trade them a year later. That said, I can see why trading Brantley makes sense, as finding another above average bat for LF can be done cheaper than $16M/yr, and if trading him makes it so they can address 3 other spots (SS, C, SP) then if seems to make sense. One way they could handle it is just hang on to Brantley until the SS market shakes out, and if one of them falls into their lap then they could trade Brantley to make financial room. Things could def go Houston’s way this offseason if they right combo of CBA details, players wanting to win over max their earnings, and other teams liking Houston’s prospects comes together. Something like: In: C Willson Contreras, SS Trevor Story, CF Starling Marte, SP Luis Castillo, RP Josh Hader Out: OF Micheal Brantley, C Jason Castro, SS Jeremy Pena, CF Jake Meyers, pitching prospects Roster: CF Marte 2B Altuve SS Story DH Alvarez 1B Gurriel RF Tucker 3B Bregman C Contreras LF McCormick Bench: Diaz, Maldonado, Siri, TBD Rotation: Castillo, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Odorizzi Bullpen: Urquidy, Javier, TBD, Baez, Maton, Stanek, Hader, Pressly
@Nook Thoughts on whether or not we bring back Baker? To some extent I could see what happens with Odorizzi tied to whether or not Dusty is back?
National reporters are saying the Astros are offering Dusty a contract later this week. The only thing that isn’t known is whether the lowball him like the rockets did MDA
I can tell you that Crane really likes Dusty Baker. So I think he will be offered a contract. Short of him expecting a long term deal he should be back. Baker and Click have had some tension but Baker ultimately protects Click and says the right things...... "I decide on the lineup" etc.
I agree with you. The Astros front office will be flexible in their approach. There isn't any single player they have targeted like the Yankees did with Cole or teams will do with Correa. The Astros have a number of possibilities depending on the free agency market and trade market. Assuming nothing shakes lose, they likely go into the season and attempt to make a move at the deadline. The most curious situation is the top of the rotation. The Astros were trying to get an idea on Verlander (who I think is their top choice if he is healthy because he has no prospect cost and they hope to have a shorter term deal) but he wanted a multi year deal so who know what happens next. I think we can conclude that Click is more protective of his prospects than Luhnow. So with that in mind I don't see Pena being dealt for a rental, even a really good one. Also, KGOLD told me that Pena is a legitimate top 25 prospect in baseball right now with some front offices (including the Astros).
I like Trea Turner as a speed/OB guy to replace Correa but think we could get Rendon... 1) He was hurt a lot this year 2) He has 5 years left, which is a minimum a free agent will cost in years 3) He's owed 37.6 million per year for 5 years 4) Angels are desperate for pitching 5) Astros have extra pitching to spare 6) He could probably play some other positions long term 7) Ohtani is getting arbitration after next season and a free agent 1 year after that To Angels: Luis Garcia Jake Odorizzi (salary) Pedro Baez (salary) Jeremy Pena Fredius Nova They might get more return talent wise elsewhere, but Rendon has a lot of salary coming due... Keeping him likely means $120 million a year for Rendon/Trout/Ohtani which leaves little else for the rest of the team in 2 years. Nova/Pena are blocked if Bregman/Rendon on the left side... Astros could still re-sign Verlander and would be left with McCullers, Valdez, Urquidy, and Javier with Ivey in the mix...
At this point I wouldn’t want them trading Pena for anything other than a star level player with 3+ seasons of control. I would even be hesitant to trade Pena for Luis Castillo straight up.
That hypothetical has the Astros giving up about $60M in surplus value to get back an aging player on a huge underwater free agent contract (from a division rival no less). After the year Rendon had, if the Angels want to trade him they would have to eat money and if they want prospects back they would have to eat a LOT of money. Add in that Bregman has no business at SS and there’s not even an open spot for Rendon to play for the Astros.
Any chance (other than Verlander) that we sit out the starting pitching market, both FA and trade, and Click spends on a couple of much higher level bullpen arms than last year? I look at how we used our pitchers in the playoffs and think about Click coming from Tampa, and I could see us only having 2-3 starters that we expect major innings out of and then piece together many games with high end pen arms Not saying I want us to go that way, but I can see it
Yes, it is possible. The Astros want someone for the top of their rotation and there are not a lot of those guys available in trade and in free agency they want and usually get huge contracts. The Astros are not going to overpay either financially or in prospects if they can improve the team in other ways. The key is to get maximum return for your asset. So if the Astros can add relievers at what they believe is below market cost, then they would likely do that. There are some limitations to having your bullpen steal too many innings from your rotation. Obviously you only have so many roster spots and you also do not want to over work your pen, and last the Astros like using their pen as a way for young pitchers to get their feet wet. However, if they strike out on a starting pitcher and the cost of an offensive upgrade at C/CF is too high, I could see them try to sign Graveman or Iglesias or both if they are affordable enough.
Skipping over details on how to get it done... but this fits salary wise... 2B Altuve LF Brantley 3B Rendon (37 x 5) DH Alvarez SS Bregman RF Tucker 1B Gurriel CF Siri C Maldanado (6 x 2) Bench: McCormick Meyers Gonzaelz Castro K Lee Diaz Rotation: Verlander (18 x 2) McCullers Valdez Urquidy Javier Bullpen: Pressly Stanek Maton Whitley or James Matzek (7 x 3) Graveman (8 x 3) Projected salary currently is 120.5. Move Baez, Odorizzi (in salary offset for Rendon), non-tender Montero and it frees up 16 million. Figure about 12 million for all the pre-arbitration guys (arbitration estimates included in 120.5) and that would put their payroll around 116 million. If Matzek/Graveman run 15 million and Verlander 18 million then there's 33 million. Maldanado is another 6 making 39 million. With Rendon about 37 million that's an addition 76 million on the 120 putting them about where they are this year (195 million). They would have Tucker/Alvarez/Valdez extensions coming down the road still and Bregman's bump. They would have 60 million off the books from Altuve/Brantley/Verlander by the time their deals come due... Also Pressly/Matzek/Gravemen would be coming off the books about the same time for another 30 million. Thought would be for Leon and Lee to replace Brantley and Maldanado in 2023 with Machete replacing Castro on the bench. Like the idea of Lee off the bench being around Maldanado and working in some big league at bats here and there...
Last off-season I and others were saying pitching, pitching and more pitching. We got Baez and Odorizzi. Our needs were underestimated and what we got was overestimated. Click messed this up IMO. OK, new year, same needs. Better result this time?
Yuli isn't going to be at first forever and Rendon has played 2B some. Bregman isn't necessarily going to be elite at SS but he's more than solid.
