I would give Marte 5 years but at a pretty low AAV. Something like $80M/5yrs would be fine as a max offer. That’s $16M/yr and not going to hamstring you even if in that 4th and 5th year he’s just a fringey everyday LF or a good 4th OF.
I could live with that deal but I think he wants at least $20M AAV, and 4 years. He knows this is probably his last chance at a big payday so he’ll want to take full advantage.
It seems weird to me that we'd want to pay only for Marte's 33-36 year old type years, but be scared off of signing Correa for his actual prime 28-32 yr old years because of the risk of his 33-36 year old years (if you assume the first half of Correa's value is like $35-40MM/yr and back half is like $20-25MM/yr, then the amounts you're paying for those years is similar) .
I think the calculus is that Marte at $15-$20 AAV PLUS whatever starting pitcher or solid reliever we can get for $15-20 AAV is better for the team than to spend $35+ AAV on Correa. It's also most likely about risk management: if Marte is signed to a 3-4 year deal and can be a solid player for 2 of those years (50%) then it would be a success. However, if we sign Correa to a 10 year deal the odds of him producing near what he did this past year for 5 out of those 10 years is not high. Or I could be talking out of my ass lol
I can’t agree with this. Correa only turns 32 on September 22 of the fifth year of his new contract (2026). He should provide similar production to what he did this season during his age 27-31 seasons, and likely will be a good player during his age 32 and 33 seasons (2027-2028), too. That encompasses years 1-7 of his next contract. It’s past that point where things become more risky, but if an 8th year at 35M seals the deal, you do it when you are a World Series contender like the Astros are. It’s only one year that you are seriously concerned about, and your entire roster will have turned over by that time.
Only sure bet is different than only reliable hitters. Yuli and Brantley are reliably going to hit 300 with little thump. Altuve is old. Bregman hasn’t been good in 2 years. What is there to argue about with any of that?
This ignores Correa’s history of frequent/serious injuries including the possibility of a chronic/degenerative back issue.
Can't believe what I'm reading. Springer is one year younger than Marte and will be making 25 million a season from 23' on but you want to pay 15-20 million a season for Starling? I remember reading some things regarding this when he was a FA. I don't get it. We should've just brought back Springer if this was the case. Anyways, anything over 15 million for a 33 YO Marte is an overspend IMO. Let's not kid ourselves.
Slugger and hitter are not the same, but now I understand what you meant - Tucker and Alvarez are the only sure things to provide both contact AND pop. I would add Altuve to that list, though. He’s not that old yet, had a good year last year and should stay healthy IMO. Bergman is a big if due to his health but I’m optimistic he rebounds. I do want more POWER to fill Correa’s hole if he does leave because I’m one of the few who is concerned about the lack of thump at 1B and LF.
He may pull a hamstring (Bregman), suffer a quad injury (Springer), or sprain a knee (Alvarez) that keeps him out for awhile... but they know enough about his back medicals that its neither degenerative or structural requiring surgery. Highly doubtful they'd be interested in a long term deal (anything more than 3 years) if that were the case. The improved training regimen seems to have kept things stable since 2019. The back has not been an issue now just as long as it was an issue.
Altuve is 31 years old and projected for a 4 win season. He’s an elite hitter with a long track record of being an elite hitter. Bregman has been very good the last 2 years with a wRC+ of 121 and 115. Expecting him to put up the Mike Trout level production he did in 2019 isn’t realistic. He is only 27 and projects for 5 wins. Gurriel and Brantley are both at risk for age-related decline but both project for a wOBA of .340 which is excellent. They are in the last year of their contracts so how they decline after this season doesn’t matter. The Astros have 6 elite hitters in pen in their lineup. Pena is a wild card who could be a bust (in which case his PA go to Diaz who is a league average bat) or could be an elite hitter (based on scouting reviews and 2021 production). McCormick projects as a league average bat. That said, I do expect them to add an above average bat of some kind (likely at CF).
Carlos Correa has played in 206 of a possible 222 regular season games (93%) the past two seasons, and all 29 postseason games during that time. The majority of his games missed this year were when he was placed on the COVID IL. He’s done as much as possible to allay concerns about his back.
There seems to be a "shiny new toy" phenomenon going on where a player being new to the team has some kind of unique value. People complain about JV's health risks, but then wanted to sign guys who've had 1 good year or health issues of their own for similar prices. Old/injured players on other teams are OK, but signing an Astros' own free agent, we don't want to risk age/injury.
How do you know they didn't make the same offer to Springer and.... he didn't accept it?... It takes two to tango - remember, Springer repeatedly turned down offers. It wasn't a secret Springer was unhappy with how the Astros handled his service time and he left under a much darker cloud for the franchise. I can certainly understand the disconnect - but I think there's more there with Springer than simply: didn't want to pay a 31-year old OF.
Springer has $125M/5yr left in his deal. Marte for $70M/4yrs (or even $80M/5yr) represents a better value. No one is suggesting paying Marte the same as Springer. Age is only one part of the equation. A guy who just put up a career high 5.4 win season at age 32 is WAY less likely to suck at age 33 or 34 or 35 than a guy who has already shown signs of decline. I’m just about ready to say the Astros have discovered a market inefficiency in older players who other teams think have declined or will decline. See Brantley, Gurriel, Verlander.
