Hypothetical: Verlander accepts the QO. The Astros use basically all the rest of their money towards Correa and he accepts. So Gravemen, Yimi Garcia, Greinke, Gonzales, and Raley are gone. No other big signings. They are basically running it back swapping Verlander for Greinke and filling in the bullpen with whomever they can find for cheap or call up. Do people like that option?
Given that they’d have a lot more prospect capital to trade at the deadline this season compared to last season, I’d be fine with that outcome, although I don’t see why they wouldn’t use some of their upper level pitching depth to add an elite reliever via trade. Their opening day roster would project for 95-105 wins and they’d be true contenders. Baez replaces Yimi Garcia. Verlander replaces Greinke. A prospect replaces Marwin. All 3 of those are likely upgrades. Tucker, Alvarez, Meyers, McCormick, Garcia, and Urquidy are all young enough that they could improve over last season. Having Valdez healthy all year will be an upgrade as well. So the only downgrade would be losing Raley and Graveman, who without any further moves would be replaced by Blake Taylor and one of James/Montero/Abreu/Scrubb/Paredes/Dubin/etc. but like I said they could trade some of those young pitchers for a guy who might even be better than Graveman was.
In that scenario, trading Pena for a pitcher becomes a pretty good option. They can likely move Odorizzi pretty easily to free up a little cash. Guys like Graveman in the last year of their deal can always be had at the deadline fairly easily.
Rodon got no QO... would be all over that for 3 years 55 million... main gamble is health and they can manage his innings with our pitching depth... If he's on, he's a top of the rotation guy we can use in the playoffs... would also hurt Chicago at same time... Kind of surprising they risk another team signing him with no pick cost over saving a few bucks hoping to get him less than 18 million... is saving 5 million worth possibly losing him?
Damn. So there was a reason for the drop off...I wonder when the injury occurred... Due to how long he was left in the 3rd spot on the line up while not producing potentially due to the injury. Brings into question why we didn't see Diaz... When Bregman was it during the season he held that spot down. Dusty ....
Fangraphs Top 50 free agents is very interesting in the estimated contracts, they are generally MUCH lower than what I would have expected. If those numbers end up being close to reality then Houston will have the funds to address all of their needs very easily and thoroughly. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-50-free-agents/ Best values I see on that list that might interest Houston: Bryant $25M/yr; 6-8 yrs Marte $18-25M/yr, 2-4 yrs Story $23-25M/yr; 5-6 yrs E Rodriguez $18-20M; 4yrs Gausman $18-19M; 3-4 yrs Taylor $15M/yr; 4yrs Verlander $18-20M/1yr Schwarber $15M/yr; 4yrs Canha $10-15M/yr; 2yrs Gray $13-15M/yr; 3yrs McHugh $5-12M/yr; 1-2yrs Desclafani $9-10M/yr; 2 yrs Graveman $6-7M/yr; 1-2 yrs Pineda $6-10M/yr; 2yrs Villar $6-7M/yr; 1-2yrs
It begs the question whether Alex told Dusty or the medical staff about his wrist injury. No Astros’ reporter made mention of it during the end of the regular season through the postseason.
No thanks, for the reasons mentioned above. He was vocal in his displeasure of the Astros, and he couldn’t make it through his one elite season without shoulder/arm issues. The fact the White Sox didn’t offer him the qualifying offer tells you that they don’t trust what’s going on with his shoulder/arm.
The only significant loss in the group is Graveman, and Maton-Stanek-Pressly is a good starting point for a 7th/8th/9th inning trio next year. Javier and Taylor can split the sixth inning (Javier versus right-handed-heavy lineups; Taylor versus left-handed-heavy lineups), and Bielak can be a competent long man. Baez is a wildcard, as is Montero. Odorizzi can either be another long man/spot starter (nice depth to have with McCullers and Verlander coming back from arm injuries) or traded to clear payroll/acquire another reliable middle reliever.
Ok, how about... Astros at about 130 million... Carlos Rodon 3 x 18 Javier Baez 6 x 28 Kendall Graveman 3 x 12 Mitch Moreland 3 x 2 Trade: Garcia, JPena, and P Baez to Reds for Luis Castillo (10 million arb) That's a 65 million increase on the 130 keeping them under the tax... Lineup: Altuve Brantley Bregman Alvarez Tucker Baez Gurriel Meyers Maldonado Bench Diaz (R) McCormick (R) Siri (R) Castro (R) Moreland (L) Rotation: McCullers (R) Rodon (L) Castillo (R) Valdez (L) Urquidy (R) Bullpen: Pressly Graveman Javier Odorizzi (6th starter / long) Stanek Maton Taylor They pair up Odorizzi with Rodon to keep innings down on Rodon in regular season and keep Odorizzi stretched out in case of injury to starter... I think this team is an improvement on the 2021 team on paper...
No thanks. First, if you aren’t willing to give Correa a seven or eight year deal, I’m not signing Baez at 28M per season for six years. Sign someone like Marte, Bryant or Chris Taylor that can either play centerfield, or multiple positions, including centerfield, instead. Also, that offer for Castillo is ridiculous from the Astros’ perspective. Luis Garcia with five years of control is more valuable than him straight up, and Pena might be, too. Furthermore, Graveman isn’t worth 3 years, 36M to the Astros as a setup man, and I’m not giving Rodon 3 years, 54M. If I’m spending that kind of AAV on a starter, I’d do it on Verlander for a two year deal (mutual option or team option in year two).
Not sure when in postseason, but someone in the media mentioned the Astros were adjusting his swing in postseason to take some pressure off one of his hands. As such, I think the Astros weren't that forthcoming on the severity of the injury, but that the Astros were aware of the injury at least at some point in the postseason.
If Dusty knew, it baffles my mind he waited until game 5 of the World Series to drop him in the order.
