I don't think it is that big of an impact adding 1 team per league to the post season. Look at last season's standings. The next 3 teams that missed the playoffs in the AL were Blue Jays, Mariners, and Oakland. None of them were going to be sellers. Then you had a big drop off to Cleveland who finished 12 games out and made a few moves. That would have been the same line on who is and isn't a seller even with expanded playoffs.
An extension for Javier or Valdez would need to be very team friendly to make sense. Something like $38M/5yrs for Valdez or $25M/5yrs for Javier that covers 2022-2026. At that price it is highly likely you’d still be able to salvage value if the player busted since both of them have skill set that should make them somewhat effective relievers even if they lose a few ticks. And at such a low cost even if they totally busted it wouldn’t limit the Astros too much. But neither Valdez or Javier have made much money to now so they might be open to giving up one year of free agency for that kind of security.
I think more years than not it will keep a few more teams in it Final records aren’t what we need to look at, it’s how they were at the deadline. I agree it won’t always matter, but I think more often than not it will
Wander Franco got 11 years and 182M, who is greater than Tucker by most evaluators. Tucker is likely to get a 5-6 year extension that secures him guaranteed $. Bregman got 5 for 100. That's likely the standard Tucker or Alvarez can expect.
I get the thought process here. But fewer selling, now add the others now willing to buy because they are close to a 2nd wildcard spot. Demand will exceed the product. More teams wanting the players, The more expensive the product becomes. Just my thoughts. I might be wrong.
Something like $80M/5yrs would be my range for covering 2022-2026 for Tucker. That’s just his arb years plus one free agent year. He would be a free agent at 29. I would think Alvarez would be in a similar range.
We are being realistic based on other catchers. Catchers on average are below average hitters (0.228/0.304/0.391). Castro has been a slightly below average hitter regardless of position the past three years but better than the average catcher slash line. On not seeing it....you must have only paid attention to him after he came back from injury as he was dog **** for a couple of months. Prior to the injury and last two months of the season and pre-COVID postseason, he was magnificent even with the strikeouts.
I think we have to pay a bit more since 10 yrs will be all of Kyle's prime. Wander gets to sign another at age 30. But everyone is probably right about not giving out a 10 year deal.
Just a question from a relative new comer. Is it time to un-pin the off season thread and pin up the Spring training thread?
I literally said in my post I'm not sure if any of these things will happen. Correa could win the MVP or have another injury riddled season. Pena could be a stud or be completely overmatched. Garcia could compete for a Cy Young, or have major regression, a lot of things good and bad can happen, nothing is a lock. But you basically said it's impossible for the Astros to be better next season without Correa, and I presented a bunch of completely reasonable situations in which we could. If the bottom falls out it won't be because we lost Correa, it will be because a lot more goes wrong than right. Projection wise are we better without him, no, but we didn't plummet an unrecoverable amount.
He walked 18. New league record! He struck out 18. Another new league record. In addition, he hit the sportswriters, the public-address announcer, the bull mascot — twice — also new league records. But, Joe. This guy’s got some serious s—.
He’s probably the 5th or 6th best pitching prospect the Astros have had in the last 10 years. He has absolutely top notch stuff and his ceiling is very high; becoming a top of the rotation starter is totally possible. But he could also top out as an inconsistent pitcher who never makes a big impact.
