Toro really struggled to end the season… when just a slightly better performance possibly has them in a playoff/tie-breaker game. Is there a book on him now with more appearances? Like most players, he will have to make adjustments to continue to be an everyday player.
I liked Toro as well. I think part of the issue for Toro is his “well rounded skill set” made him a tough fit for the Astros. His two best positions, 2B and 3B are filled by mainstays — his future in Houston was always as a super utility player - you can debate if we got enough, but his value to the Astros was always as a super utility player. He just didn’t have a loud enough bat play to challenge for other spots full time.
I definitely think the Orioles say "no" According to baseball trade values: the total of the 4 guys you suggested trading add up to 19.5 Mullins has a value of 66.2 That said the Orioles are not interested in players that are nearing arbitration ( Javier in 23, Abreu in 24) and Whitley needs to prove he's healthy before he has much value. If the Astros don't offer at least 2 of: Pena, K.Lee, Leon, and Hunter Brown + 2 more solid guys similar to McCormick then the Orioles hang up the phone. FYI an offer if Leon, H.Brown, Urquidy, and McCirmick has a 54.5 value vs the 66.2 of Mullins according to this tool. I have no idea how accurate it is or where they get the values. But it's something. But I think that offer has a much better chance to get Mullins
Not sure the exact sources of data, but it looks like it uses a projection system similar to Steamer or multiple systems for MLB player production (if not Steamer), and a surplus value chart for prospects based on their rankings (guessing it is an average of at least two systems, possibly FanGraphs and BA). Numbers seem reasonable from what would be expected from a purely statistical evaluation with a lot of uncertainty on young players with little track record and on older players getting hammered by aging curves. I'd guess some teams value Javier and Urquidy more than generic projections systems.
This seems reasonable. Also Elias might really like Javier, Abreu, and/or Whitley. But that still feels very light based on what an all-star centerfielder with multiple tears of control remaining is expected to bring back in a trade. Especially with the lack of CFers. Sellers market.
Definitely agree that Elias would not do that trade. I think the Astros could get Mullins if Elias is blown away by an offer with guys with at least 2 more years of service left than Mullins (i.e., getting 10-20% more surplus value mostly from MLB-Ready prospects).
RESULTS https://theathletic.com/3088680/202...teams-approach-to-carlos-correas-free-agency/ Spoiler What are your realistic expectations for the 2022 Astros? Responses | Percentage Runaway AL West winners, another deep playoff run | 57.6 Eke out a division title, maybe win a round | 39.2 Wild-card team | 2.1 Miss the playoffs altogether | 1.1 How many games will the Astros win this season? Responses | Percentage 95 or more | 29.3 90-94 | 60.5 85-89 | 9.2 84 or fewer | 1.1 These results give off the vibe that the expectations for the Astros are similar to what they were coming into last season when the team won 95 games, five more than the second-place Mariners. Virtually all participants who filled out the survey are expecting, at worst, another postseason appearance, and a majority anticipate another runaway division title. High expectations are warranted. Even without Carlos Correa, the Astros currently have the best roster in their division. The Mariners’ negative run differential in 2021 makes them a regression candidate, though they did add Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier and could still add more. The A’s more or less stood pat with their roster before the lockout and could take a step back. The Rangers made big splashes in November but still need a lot more to contend. I wrote in my most recent mailbag column that I believe the Angels are actually the biggest threat to the Astros in the AL West in 2022. But the AL West is still the Astros’ division to lose, and 90-94 wins feels about right as a realistic, reasonable projection. How would you grade the Astros’ offseason to date? Responses | Percentage A | 3.4 B | 48.6 C | 41.8 D | 4.9 F | 1.3 The words “to date” were key in this question, as obviously the Astros and 29 other teams can still do more after the lockout. “Hard to evaluate the offseason with the lockout in place,” wrote one fan. Yes, of course. I agree. But it’s what we have to evaluate at this point. When asked to elaborate on their position, many respondents endorsed the Astros’ move to bring back Justin Verlander but expressed displeasure that they haven’t re-signed Correa or another bat to replace him in the lineup. Adding Héctor Neris to their bullpen yielded mixed reviews but ultimately didn’t seem to move the needle much either way. “Great signing Verlander,” wrote one fan. “Terrible about Correa.” I wonder if Verlander had been coming from another team and not merely re-signing whether the grade here would’ve been higher. From a psychological standpoint, the shiny new toy effect seems to win over fans more so than the return of something they already had. Just some food for thought. A sampling of the other fan responses to this survey question: “Sign Correa.” “Verlander signing absolves them of a ton. Correa is/should be gone as he’s not worth $300 mil. Let the (Jeremy) Peña era begin.” “‘C’ until they throw the bank at Correa.” “While underwhelming, it’s hard to assign a ‘C’ or lower when you re-sign JV.” “Lack of clarity at shortstop prevents them from getting a better grade.” “It’s hard to evaluate in progress, but to me, bringing back Verlander is a great start (and about the best they could reasonably do for the rotation unless they somehow landed Max Scherzer). I considered a frontline starter (whether by FA or trade) to be the biggest need for the offseason, given how huge an advantage high-end playoff quality starters are in the playoffs.” “Overpaid for Verlander (a position we have depth at), while ignoring the shortstop position, and overpaying for a middle reliever.” “IF Verlander turns out to be a borderline ace and (Lance) McCullers comes back 100 percent, we’ll be in good shape on starting pitching. Correa isn’t coming back so would be nice to see them pick up a bat to offset some of the loss there. Hopefully, Peña fills in at above replacement-level value. Another higher-leverage reliever would be great as well.” “High grades are often given when teams spend $XXX million for long-term deals. No grading is done in future years when they are tied up with dead contracts. Happy to see the Astros being selective and developing young talent.” “I chose ‘C’ because ‘Incomplete’ was not an option. Until Correa’s destination is known, one way or another, the Astros’ offseason will feel incomplete. There are a number of pieces that have to be determined still this offseason, and it feels as though virtually all of them start and stop with Correa, his contract, his replacement, etc.” After the lockout ends, which position do you most want the Astros to address in free agency or via trade? Responses | Percentage Shortstop | 52.7 Center fielder | 13.1 Corner outfielder (move Kyle Tucker to center) | 5.8 Reliever | 23.1 Other | 5.3 At shortstop, what do you think the Astros should do? Responses | Percentage Give Jeremy Peña a chance to win the starting job; Aledmys Díaz can back him up | 31.3 Sign Carlos Correa for 10 years and $300 million or more | 29.2 Sign Trevor Story to a long-term deal, albeit one shorter in length than what Correa will get | 12.7 Sign a stopgap like Andrelton Simmons or Jonathan Villar to give Peña more time in Triple A | 20.6 Other | 6.2 A sampling of fans’ thoughts on the Astros’ approach to Correa’s free agency: “Pay the man.” “I understand their reticence to give out a 10-plus year megadeal, and I don’t think that would be wise, but I wish he would consider a short-term, high-AAV deal.” “Terrible.” “Realistic.” “I don’t like that we lowballed CC in the two offers made. Wish we would have been more respectful and realistic in those offers. That said, I acknowledge that CC isn’t coming back without a minor miracle and don’t want to commit to eight-plus years of just about anyone so bravo, Astros for standing pat. Just don’t go to either LA team or NYY and we’re cool, CC.” “Not surprised that he hasn’t been signed. But I feel he should be the exception to the rule because of his impact on the team from the start.” “Disappointed but knew this was coming.” “The whole process is nauseating.” “Typical Houston.” “I’m fine with it. Don’t break the bank for one player. Keep us in contention as long as possible.” “Mixed, but shading toward disappointed. I understand not wanting to offer the huge contract early on, but the offers we’ve heard haven’t really been competitive. I would have liked to have seen some better offers. You had your 1-1 pick become a superstar. This is every team’s hope and dream. You have to keep him.” “Disrespectful.” “I know in my head that a 10-year deal for ANY player is a terrible idea … but my heart wants what it wants.” How confident are you in Jim Crane and the Astros’ ownership group? (1 being “Not confident at all” and 5 being “Very confident.”) Responses | Percentage 1 | 0.9 2 | 4.7 3 | 13.7 4 | 51.2 5 | 29.6 How would you rate James Click’s work as the Astros’ general manager? (1 being “Poor” and 5 being “Excellent.”) Responses | Percentage 1 | 0.2 2 | 2.8 3 | 28.8 4 | 56.9 5 | 11.4 How would you rate Dusty Baker’s performance as the Astros’ manager? (1 being “Poor” and 5 being “Excellent.”) Responses | Percentage 1 | 0.4 2 | 5.6 3 | 25.2 4 | 46.3 5 | 22.4 All told, the Astros’ leadership graded out pretty well here. Fans praised Crane for building a consistent winner and spending on player payroll, though some wrote that they would like to see him spend more, especially in free agency. “He’s going to have to give more than $150 million to a single player at some point,” wrote one fan. Some respondents criticized his handling of the sign-stealing scandal, namely the firings of Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch. “Trade (Cristian) Javier to Detroit and bring back A.J. Hinch,” proposed another fan. Predictably, Click’s work to date got a lot of “too soon to tell” and “TBD” comments despite his solid rating in the survey. “A little bit of an incomplete record for Click so far,” wrote one fan. “Most of the continued success is based on Luhnow-era decisions.” Wrote another: “He did fine at the trade deadline. It is difficult to judge a guy who hasn’t had first- or second-round picks and did not pick his manager.” The refrain on Baker was a familiar one. “Certainly not the best in-game manager, but a much-needed steady hand when he entered the picture,” wrote one fan. “He makes too many head-scratching decisions, but he brought respect and stability to the team,” wrote another. Several fans complained that he didn’t drop a struggling and injured Alex Bregman down in the batting order sooner during the 2021 postseason. Some want to see Jason Castro play more in 2022. A few wrote that they hope Joe Espada gets a shot to manage the Astros after 2022. Will the Astros win another World Series during this decade? Responses | Percentage Yes | 72.0 No | 28.0 Will the Astros rebuild again during this decade? Responses | Percentage Yes | 47.3 No | 52.7 These last two results are interesting to analyze in tandem. We all know that winning a World Series is incredibly difficult. It’s quite often that the best team doesn’t win. Yet more than 70 percent of the Astros fans who participated in this survey think the team will win again in one of the next eight seasons. At the same time, slightly more than half also think the team will rebuild at some point in that same span. That doesn’t leave the Astros much of a margin for error in the interim.
Spoiler Who will lead the Astros in WAR in 2022? Responses | Percentage Kyle Tucker | 54.1 Jose Altuve | 6.0 Alex Bregman | 24.1 Yordan Alvarez | 11.1 Yuli Gurriel | 1.1 Justin Verlander | 2.1 Lance McCullers Jr. | 0.9 Framber Valdez | 0.0 Other | 0.6 A couple of wishful thinkers wrote in Correa, the Astros’ 2021 WAR leader. It’s not surprising that Tucker, their second-best player in 2021, led the polling, though I was somewhat surprised by the extent to which he led it. Altuve’s 6 percent support was lower than I expected. This one also reflected a lot of confidence in a bounce-back season by Bregman. If the Astros extend only one of these two players, which would you prefer they sign? Responses | Percentage Yordan Alvarez | 23.3 Kyle Tucker | 76.7 No surprise here. Both left-handed sluggers are young and worth building around, but Tucker’s defense and base-running give him the edge over the defensively limited Alvarez when projecting long-term value. Which of these up-and-coming Astros pitchers will have the best career? Responses | Percentage José Urquidy | 26.3 Cristian Javier | 17.9 Luis Garcia | 55.7 Garcia has a lot of momentum after his breakout in 2021 whereas Urquidy and Javier are now a year or two removed from their breakout seasons (2019 and 2020, respectively). It’s impossible for recency bias to not seep into a poll like this one, but I would tend to agree with a pecking order of Garcia, Urquidy and then Javier when projecting the future. If we do another survey down the line, this one would be interesting to revisit. Who is the Astros’ center fielder of the future? Responses | Percentage Jake Meyers | 44.4 Chas McCormick | 4.9 Jose Siri | 6.0 Pedro León | 24.6 Other | 20.1 Meyers won over a lot of people through his performance in his breakout 2021 but apparently not enough to garner any kind of consensus in this survey. León, a minor leaguer not yet on the 40-man roster, still has many fans, as well. Siri getting more votes than McCormick was unexpected, though their overall support levels are comparable. That roughly one in five voters checked the “other” box is notable. Which of these Astros prospects will have the best career? Responses | Percentage Jeremy Peña | 37.1 Korey Lee | 32.3 Hunter Brown | 7.0 Forrest Whitley | 4.8 Pedro León | 18.8 Peña and Lee both have strong cases for being the Astros’ No. 1 overall prospect, so it makes sense that fans would be relatively split on which of the two will have the better future. It’s also not surprising to see the potential everyday position players favored over the pitchers in this poll.
Considering I doubt Rutschman will be a all-star this coming season and I doubt Mullins get traded this season, I think odds are good he is at the beginning of a perennial run of all-star appearances.
Will it be because he is very good, or because the team has to have an all star representative? And why would you trade all of that because you hope he is on the beginning of a perennial run of all-star appearances? Why do you think the odds are so high, his numbers have been ok to good so far.
He has both going for him. His track record last year is better than the track record for all four outgoing combined. I don't care about all-star appearances as valuing a player. I would trade for him with this package because even if regresses back to an average CF (floor), he would still be a starter for Houston the next three years, but he has good odds of being better than average. The 4 outgoing only have Javier with decent odds of being a starter each of the next three years. McCormick may keep the grass warm for Meyers. His numbers last year were great. His numbers in 2020 were average for a starting CF. If he stays in Baltimore, he's significantly better than everyone (except Means who's close, but a pitcher) that played for them last year and has inertia on his side. Regarding all star appearances, I'd bet on incumbents over pitchers and guys without MLB experience provided he isn't traded. His last 800 bats suggests he's well worth those 4. His 1st 200, say he isn't. I think the last 800 ABs are significantly more important regarding projecting future performance. Really, I see this as Javier and throw-ins for someone who's been about twice as good as Javier and who will probably continue to be better than Javier. I like Javier, but not that much.
Great argument for and I can see your reasoning, I just don't think all of those guys are throw ins, I would rather see if we can get something out of FW and still like Abreu as low cost guy. I just don't think Mullins is that much of an upgrade to give up on the potential of FW BA and CJ. I will admit I am not up on forecasting and WAR, so this is just going from the eye test and baseline stats. I value the potential of those 3 pitchers more than a slightly above average CF, I could be totally wrong.
Frankly, I did not pay attention to Mullins until last year. From what I saw, I'm surprised he didn't lead all CFs last year in homers and batting average while being above average defensively in CF, a premium position. Vlad and Correa were the only position players I saw play better last year (I typically don't watch NL except in games against the Astros). I expect a lot of regression in his play, but it would be a disaster of a season for him to be average (floor) or slightly above average CF.
Opinions on Whitley, Abreu, and Javier will vary wildly. Whitley because of his injuries and off the field stuff, Abreu and Javier because their development timelines prevented prospect hype. Based on prospect rankings or current mlb stat projections the deal looks heavily lopsided for Houston and there’s no way Baltimore would do that deal. But if Elias likes those 3 pitching prospects and sees McCormick as a serviceable fringe-regular CF to replace Mullins he might like that deal (especially if he thinks Mullins one good season was his peak). Abreu and Whitley have elite stuff and hence very high ceilings. Javier looks every bit a potential mor sp with a fairly proven track record as an effective reliever. This deal wouldn’t make casual Baltimore fans happy since it doesn’t include an MLB Top 25 prospect which is what they probably expect for Mullins. But Mullins isn’t an established superstar (again, he’s had 1 good season), and I could easily see the Astros losing out big time on this deal if Mullins regresses and/or one of Whitley or Abreu reaches their ceiling.
It's fun to talk about big trade scenarios. I'm not seeing Baltimore trading Mullins without getting one of Luis Garcia or Jeremy Pena. I would add Korey Lee to that list but the number 1 prospect in baseball is Rutschman who is a catcher in the Orioles system. They would also want Hunter Brown plus McCormick AND Abreu. If they really like Meyers they might want him instead of McCormick even with the bum shoulder. That seems more realistic to me and something I do not see the Astros being willing to do. At this point I'm not expecting any real significant moves for the Astros after the lockout. MAYBE they do a couple things like: 1. Sign a lefty reliever like Chafin. He's probably looking for a 3 year deal so even that seems unlikely to me. Perhaps Chasen Shreve, Jake Diekman, or Tony Watson are more realistic if the Astros see them as being slight upgrades over Blake Taylor. 2. Sign a backup plan at SS like Iglesias, Simmons, or Villar incase Pena struggles. 3. Trade Odorizzi which maybe lands them a reliever instead of signing the above mentioned lefty. I don't expect the Astros to add a big free agent involving a sizeable multi year contract for a number of reasons. First, there aren't many places you can realistically upgrade the roster. CF and C are the obvious answers if they are going with Pena at SS. However, there is nothing at those positions in free agency that makes any sense. In the trade market a Cedric Mullins or Bryan Reynolds trade will probably be too costly for Click. Then the only catcher that could or should be traded and would be an upgrade is Wilson Contreras. Not sure the Astros want to go that route and trade valuabe pieces for a rental catcher with Korey Lee in AAA. Second, the Astros have significant salary raises coming in 2023. Bregman gets a raise around 17 million in real dollars. His luxury tax salary stays at 20 million though. Then in 2023 the Astros will be swamped with signifcant arbitration raises. Framber will be in year 2 of arbitration. Stanek and Maton will be in their final year of arb (provided they don't become free agents next winter if they bring in the age based system since both will be over 29.5). Then you also have Yordan, Tucker, Javier, and Urquidy entering arbitration. That will likely add 20 million in payroll in those 4 guys and possibly 30 million if Tucker and Yordan put up the seasons we expect and Javier and/or Urqudiy has a really good year as well. The Astros do have money possibly coming off the books with Pressly, Gurriel, Brantley, Castro, and Aledmys Diaz becoming free agents after 2022. Plus Verlander has that player option. If he has a great year he could easily walk away from the 25 million dollar option seeking a higher salary. However, those are some key pieces the Astros will need to replace or possibly resign and the Astros will need significant money to do that and pay the arb raises. Finally, the Astros don't have to make a big move right now. Based on the CBA negotiations it seems like a lock that the playoffs are expanding. The owners want 14 teams in the playoffs and the players countered with 12. Either way, it's going to be easier to make the playoffs and I don't see 6 or 7 other teams in the American League that are better than the Astros. So maybe they see how the young guys like Pena, McCormick, Meyers, Siri, etc do and if needed make a move at the deadline.
