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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 18, 2020.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Luhnow was a good GM but he wasn’t some kind of unicorn. He convinced the owner to tank, did a good job with the resources (top draft picks, seller trades) that made available to him, then was lucky to have an owner willing to spend money. The front office of the Rays has done almost as much with FAR less. If Click is able to develop prospects and win trades anywhere close to as well as the Rays have over the last 5 years, Houston will be every bit as good as they were under Luhnow. Note, Jeff Luhnow presided over a roughly .500 tenure as GM of the Astros.
     
  2. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    I’d give credit where credit is due. Luhnow built a juggernaut out of nothing. Click isn’t being asked to do that... he simply needs to maintain what they’ve already done, re-stock it here/there, and rely on some good fortune/luck like the rest of teams do while not bottoming out.

    If what Luhnow did was “easy”, more teams would be showing success while following a similar strategy. We’ll see if Elias can do the same thing with the Orioles, but yet to see the ‘generational’ talent that the Astros added yearly. The Rangers have a similar ability to raise payroll and compete, but they’re also having trouble on the young developed superstar talent side. The Rays have made the most of windows to win... but there’s always a smaller window with small market teams, augmented by eventual lop-sided trades like the Archer one.
     
  3. lnchan

    lnchan LeonardTX26
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    Thoughts about this?
    Yuli to left. Sign Marisnick. Taylor Jones to first.

    Starting Outfield: Gurriel-Marisnick-Tucker
    Backup: Straw and Diaz
    Starting Infield: Bregman-Correa-Altuve-Jones
    Backup: Toro and Mayfield
     
  4. Major

    Major Member

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    While true, the Rays also didn't start in as bad a situation as the Astros did.

    No offense intended here, but statements like this suggest an agenda rather than a fair evaluation of someone.
     
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  5. Major

    Major Member

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    Also worth noting that Click wasn't in charge in Tampa Bay, so he's still a bit of an unknown and we don't know who the "genius" there is specifically (or if it's an organization-wide thing). It's like taking a bunch of New England Patriots assistants and front office personnel and hoping it re-creates New England. We've seen how that works.
     
  6. SuraGotMadHops

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    Luhnow was an incredible GM, and if you win a title in this town you will take on a legendary mythos. So seeing a guy like that get fired is difficult to accept. As a fan, all we care about it is winning. As an organization, winning is most important but there are other considerations as well that do not impact us as fans. Regardless of his role in 2017, one thing is crystal clear - whether justified or not, Luhnow was not a well liked person around the league, and his reputation regarding a toxic work environment was getting really bad. As much as I would have preferred Crane take a Robert Kraft approach and give the finger to the other owners and to Manfred, it's just not his style.

    I want to see what Click can do and I am optimistic he will perform. Boston continued to perform after Epstein left, so long as you have a good GM, you are in good shape. Crane has shown an ability to hire good people, I was totally against the Dusty hiring, even deep into the season, and I was proven wrong. I was very impressed with Dusty's handling of this team, especially in the playoffs.

    I had read that in 2015 Luhnow signed Javier, Valdez, and Urquidy as international free agents, and I was like "damn!! how could we let just this guy go??!" Then I think about how insulted Morton was in the low ball offer they made to him, how he would've been cheaper than Grienke, and how Morton sliced and diced us in Game 7. Luhnow was brilliant, but nobody is immune to moves that can cost us down the road.

    Lastly, Springer, Altuve and Keuchel were Ed Wade guys, so Luhnow didn't do it all by himself.
     
    phasors28 likes this.
  7. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

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    It’s creative, and if you were looking to save money (like some owners) it could make sense, but I don’t see how that makes for a better team at all. I’d be more into it if the dollars saved it brought in some extra talent to go along with those other guys.
     
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  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    The Rays started off FAR worse than the Astros because of their financial limitations, which they will never escape.

    No agenda; a GM’s W/L record is probably the single most correlated statistic with success/failure. I will grant that leaving out both the championships and the scandal means a lot of lost context, but you can’t do anything approaching a fair appraisal of him without noting the overall record, the rings, and the scandal.
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Not a bad idea, but I don’t think Yuli would do very well in the OF at this point. If the team is going to just add 1 3rd tier free agent and call it a day, I’m fine with that being Marisnick, but in that case I would leave Yuli at 1B and have Diaz, Toro, McCormick, Jones, and Straw all competing for LF, with Diaz being the leader by default. A 7-8-9 of Diaz-Maldonado-Marisnick would be the weakest bottom of the order they’ve fielded since 2015, but there’s some upside there and it would be a stellar defensive group.
     
    #89 Snake Diggit, Oct 20, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2020
  10. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The situation in Tampa was interesting. The Rays were really ran by a group of people on the baseball side. Matthew Silverman, Erik Neander, Chaim Bloom and Jim Click round tabled everything from the draft, to roster construction and and trades. Silverman supposedly usually deferred to Chaim Bloom, who would coordinate with Neander and Click on moves.

    Click is known for being very bullish on the international market and spending heavily on a single prospect when there is one worthy of it. He was the biggest supporter of Wander Franco for example. You can already see his influence on the Astros international draft decisions. He also was known as a big supporter of pitching development (along with Bloom). Bloom is the one that developed actual protocol and books to be distributed within the organization but Click was similar in supporting that style of development.

    In one sense, we are getting the "left overs" as Friedman was the first domino to fall, and he left for LA; and then Bloom replaced Friedman and he left for Boston and was replaced by Neander who promoted Click.

    The one positive is that no organization has produced more successful executives than Tampa and those that flow out of their former employees that join other teams........ the head of the Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, Giants and now Astros came from that Friedman tree.
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Luhnow vs Click Tale of the Tape from my perspective:

    Rule 4 draft: Luhnow. Correa, Bregman, Tucker all were hits at the top of the draft, and he got a TON of relative value out of his later picks. Not sure what Clicks role was in Tampa’s draft but he was never head of scouting. Tampa has had a lot of success in the draft but that hasn’t been their hallmark.

    International signings: Click. Click was heavily involved in this side of things in TB and they had a lot of success with it (see Nooks comment on Franco and their pitching depth). Luhnow didn’t spend a lot on the international side, although he certainly demonstrated an ability to unearth cheap pitching (Javier, Valdez, Urquidy, Paredes, etc.). His Top 30 signings were a mixed bag (Ronny Rafael, MiguelAngel Sierra, Franklin Perez, Freudis Nova).

    Trades: Click; from what I’ve read Click was pretty influential in evaluating Tampa’s trades and they have won pretty much all of them. I expect this to be where Click really outdoes Luhnow. Luhnow had some big wins (Verlander, Yordan) but also some clear losses (Gomez).

    Free Agent signings: Push; Neither Luhnow or Click have much track record in free agency, as both have taken a very safe approach. Like Luhnow, I expect Click to play in the 3rd tier of that market, mirroring signings like Morton, Brantley, Reddick, and Maldonado.

    Position player development: Push. I’d say both guys have above average resumes when it comes to their farm systems developing position player talent.

    Pitching development: Push. I’d say both guys have demonstrated elite ability to develop pitching in their farm.

    Roster construction: Push. While Luhnow was the final decision maker, he had far more resources than Click. While Clicks Tampa moves have yet to yield rings, Tampa’s farm has never dipped as low as Luhnow let his go.

    PR: Click. I feel fairly confident that James Click will never acquire a player credibly accused of assault. I also feel confident he will not be involved in a cheating scandal, have one of his employees taunt a female reporter, or have to be talked out of drafting a child molester.

    Management style: Click. It is easy to see that Click is far more likable than Luhnow. While Luhnow’s cold blooded approach yielded results, it proved to be fatally flawed.

    All in all, I expect we will look back on the Click era more fondly than the Luhnow era once enough time has passed. Of course that likely all hinges on Click delivering an untainted ring.
     
    BHannes2BHonest, Nook and Major like this.
  12. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Doing a tale of the tape after a 60 game season, a curtailed draft, and no real off-season yet is a little premature. Even more-so since Click was not the main person making all the above decision in Tampa.

    Your agenda is becoming more and more obvious... may have to curtail your intentions before it starts approaching Mr. Scarface level cartoonish.
     
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  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Pfffft
     
  14. htwnbandit

    htwnbandit Member

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    Feel free to dislike bomb this prick, Clutchfans. The guy's a diehard Eagles fan so be sure to throw some shade at them too.
     
  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    2021 Astros......... just for fun.

    Gone:
    Springer ( - $21 million) QO made: Astros add a draft pick
    Osuna ( - $10 million)
    Reddick ( - $13 million)
    Peacock ( - $3.9 million)
    Devenski ( - 2 million)
    Brantley (- $15 million) QO made: Astros add a draft pick

    Resigned:
    Gurriel ( -1.7 salary decrease over 2020)



    Free agent added:
    McHugh (2.5 million)
    Grossman (5 million)
    Chirinos (3 million)
    Robbie Ray (6.5 million)


    Trade:
    Sterling Marte (12.5 million)


    1. Altuve
    2. Grossman
    3. Bregman
    4. Alvarez
    5. Correa
    6. Tucker
    7. Marte
    8. Gurriel
    9. Maldonado
     
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  16. Major

    Major Member

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    I guess it depends on starting point, but a decade ago, the Rays were already good - they had multiple 95+ win seasons, they had made a World Series in 2008, etc. Yes, money was (and is) a problem. But Lunhow came on board to Astros team that was lacking in both major or minor league talent, and had a TV network disaster that cut their media revenues to almost nothing.

    I'm not thinking so much of the championships or scandal - just the starting point. Without starting point, W-L record is completely meaningless. Going 0.500 in 7 years after taking over the 2010 Astros is very different, for example, than going 0.500 in 7 years after taking over the 2017 Astros. It's easy to say he had several top picks/etct to work with - but lots of terrible teams collect lots of top picks, and they generally don't have the Astros' success. He took a completely destroyed team to one of the best 3 year stretches in MLB history in his 7 years. You don't see the Tigers or Orioles or other bottomfeeders accomplish that. Using "he had a 0.500 record" to evaluate his stretch as GM is essentially a meaningless statistic.
     
  17. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Loving some former Astros, eh?

    Re-sign Springer. Test the market for LMJ (Looking for 2 top prospects back otherwise keep him). Don't know if the demand is there, I think you check given his durability concerns and pending Free Agency. I wouldn't invest heavily into the bullpen with Joe Smith & Austin Pruitt coming back. Check in on the price for Jake Odorizzi. Offer cheap deals to Peacock & McHugh. I actually suspect Peacock will have to settle for a minor league deal given his injuries the last couple of years.
     
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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I think there will be some really good value to be had in the 3rd tier of free agency, and Grossman could fall into that category. As would McCann, Profar, E Hernandez, and Villar. There will be even more values on the pitching side. It’ll be up to Click to pick the right ones.
     
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  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Add Ray ($6M/1yr plus $12M club option with $500k buyout), Profar ($24M/3yr plus incentives), and McCann ($22M/3yr). QO Brantley and Springer, Brantley accepts. Trade Luis Garcia, Andre Scrubb, and Brandon Bielak to Milwaukee for Corey Knebel.

    3B Bregman
    LF Brantley
    2B Altuve
    DH Alvarez
    SS Correa
    RF Tucker
    1B Gurriel
    CF Profar
    C Maldonado
    Bench: McCann, Diaz, Straw, Toro
    Rotation: Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Ray, Urquidy
    Bullpen: Pruitt, James, Smith, Taylor, Paredes, Javier, Pressly, Knebel
     
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  20. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    Man, we have different ideas of fun. Yours might be reducing payroll by $37.5 million. Mine is running it back. Between the $30.6m saved on the rest of the guys you've listed and their current salaries, seems like there's plenty of $ to pay what it takes to keep Springer and Brantley. GTFOH with trading away assets for Starling Marte and his PEDs.

    1. Springer
    2. Altuve
    3. Brantley
    4. Bregman
    5. Alvarez
    6. Correa
    7. Tucker
    8. Gurriel
    9. Maldonado
     
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