I have no doubt that if Covid was not going on the Indians would have either picked up the 10 million dollar option on Hand or they would have been able to trade him for decent return. Covid changed that. Your war was "selective" because you have to compare it to pitchers that signed that same offseason. Relievers were getting big money and the contract that I mentioned with Pomeranz does not add up to the only stat you provided. Pomeranz posted a negative war in one of the 2 previous seasons and flies directly in the face of your ONE stat you used comparing Smith and Hand. You also have to take into account the Astros payroll and roster situation last offseason. They had very little money to spend and that was evident by only signing Maldonado and Smith while having Harris, Rondon, McHugh, and Cole walk. They had to sign someone and based on the CURRENT MARKET at the time, Smith at 4 million a year was not terrible value. Another example that offseason was Daniel Hudson. His previous 2 seasons he posted a combined .8 WAR and received 2 years at 5.5 million per year. Using your same math, comparing Smith to Hudson's deal, Smith should have been paid 4.125 million per year so that was actually a slight discount at 4 million....
For all intents and purposes, 4M and 4.125 are the same as they are easily within the error of WAR calcs. I am not saying Smith wasn't worth $4M based on what was expected. I am saying that if he had to sign this offseason, he likely gets less. Just as Hand will get less. Considering the $/fWAR was basically the same when they signed their deals using weighted averages of every free agent deal, I would expect their 2021 value to scale similarly. If you want to say Smith's value is 40% of Hand's I'm fine with that. I'm not fine with assumption that Smith's dollar value for 2021 has not been affected downwards when he hasn't played a game to improve it and we're in the middle of a pandemic that costs the owners profits (**** flows downhill). While fWAR isn't perfect for predicting what teams will do every time, especially with relievers and catchers, other than using projections, it is probably better than using WHIP, ERA, or a host of a lot of other stats. From the projections I've seen so far, they aren't good dollarwise for either Hand at $8M or Smith at $4M. Edit: I was only using the numbers as a counter point and should not be used as exactly perfect. Smith at $4M prior to Covid made sense to me, fWAR, and the market. Hand at $10M prior to Covid made sense to me, fWAR, and the market. My main point even if you disagree with math or little points....market value has gone down, and almost all players with a year left on their deals are overpaid at today's free agent prices.
Not really a rumor(more of a prediction/idea from a writer) from The Athletic. This is why the Mets seem like such an obvious landing spot for Realmuto. The only sticky wicket is the persistent rumor that the Mets are about to sign catcher James McCann to a four-year deal, which might leave the consensus No. 1 free agent without an obvious suitor. Enter the dark horse: Houston. The Astros are currently around $50 million short of where they ended 2020 in terms of full-season pro-rated payroll, and a ton of money will drop off the books after 2021, when the team will graduate Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander and will also have options on Yuli Gurriel and Ryan Pressley. If they choose to let them all walk, they’ll have over $70 million burning a hole in their pocket. Martín Maldonado has been a fine catcher, but the difference between what he’s projected to do with the bat next year and what Realmuto can do is on the same order as, say, the difference between what Michael Brantley is projected to do and what current left field Astro depth chart leader Chas McCormick is projected to do. So, basically, the Astros could replace their lost Brantley offense at a more premium position — and then upgrade their corner outfield situation without spending all that much. Someone like Joc Pederson, a top-25 bat against righties since he’s entered the league, could cost less than $10 million on a one-year contract. It’s generally easier to sign corner outfielders and adding Realmuto to an infield that includes Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa and José Altuve could be a masterstroke, particularly if a lack of competing offers suppresses Realmuto’s contract requirements. And they had NY and Houston as a finalist for Realmuto and had Houston winning and the contract they had them signing him to was.... 4 years $85 mil with a $15 mil option/$5 mil buyout. Would you guys do it?
Realmuto for $85M/4yr with a $15M 5th year option would be a great deal for Houston in my eyes. They would likely have almost no money left for this season, so the LF/CF/P holes would be filled by $2-3M signings, but adding a star, up-the-middle player would be awesome.
Totally depends on what the Astros payroll will look like. If signing Realmuto means we are stuck with something like Reddick and Marisnick in the outfield then no. I would rather spend 10 million a piece on 2 outfielders.
You grab Realmuto. For that contract. Then Astro fans accross the board will be happy with what they get. But you can still get decent OFers. The issue you will have is you still need a SP and a Bullpen guy. Makes since if you an nab Profor
That's the point... you don't know that they can still get decent OFers because nobody knows what Crane will spend this offseason. Realmuto is estimated to be 4.0 WAR player next year. That's what you get out of Joc Pederson and Jackie Bradley Jr. combined.
Filling in the blanks around a Realmuto signing: 3B Bregman 2B Altuve C Realmuto ($85M/4yr + option) DH Alvarez SS Correa RF Tucker 1B Gurriel LF Puig ($5M/1yr) CF Almora ($3M/1yr) Bench: Diaz, Maldonado, Straw, Toro Rotation: Greinke, Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy, Zimmerman ($2M/1yr) Bullpen: Pruitt, Raley, Taylor, Paredes, Javier, Smith, Pressly, Chafin ($1M/1yr)
If we can *actually* land a player like Realmuto, you have to consider it. He would be the greatest catcher in Astros history by a wide margin. It’s not a terrible idea, really...it’s a decent market to fill in the holes elsewhere on a relative budget. There’s going to be a plethora of capable, cheap, short term players, especially at the corner OF position. I wouldn’t bet my house on it, but maybe by 2022, Alvarez (or another internal candidate) can get some quality reps at a corner OF slot. I just don’t love the idea of signing players like JBJ or Joc long term, but maybe I’m wrong.
Let me make it clear. I am not against signing Realmuto. I just have a bunch of questions that would could sway me one way or another. What is Crane's budget for the year? How much does Realmuto actually cost? How much does Springer end up signing for? If the contracts are even close between Realmuto and Springer I would take Springer. Also, I don't believe that contract prediction above gets it done for Realmuto. The Phillies have been negotiating with him for over a year trying to get a deal done. If that was the price for Realmuto I believe it would have been done already, but that doesn't seem to be the case as it has been reported that the Phillies were out on signing Realmuto and the Mets are hot on getting McCann. His asking price will likely have to come down so we will see. I've said it before. IF possible... my preference would be to sign Springer and one of Schwarber, Rosario, or Dahl depending on budget. I'm assuming bringing back both Springer and Brantley is off the table. Also, add a solid reliever, backup catcher, and bargain hunt for a starter to eat innings and have more depth.
Biggio, while better utilized elsewhere, was a catcher for a few years....about as many as Realmuto would sign for in free agency.
Yep. I don't think Pederson and JBJ combined will make the AAV of Realmuto and definitely not close to full salary. From a WAR delta standpoint, Realmuto's playing time would come at the expense of Stubbs and MM. Straw would probably lose half his PAs, but it would keep Chas and Dawson down in the minors. So even though Realmuto is taking only one position, he's probably replacing more valuable than the OFs would. Though if Crane is willing to sign Realmuto, I'm fine with it.
So right now it looks like odds are the Mets will be the big spenders. I'd guess Philly and Toronto will throw around some dough as well. My guess is that Astros will be one of the next teams in offseason spending (and may even spend more than Toronto). I think Boss, Jr. likes money and while in a normal year they make as much as anyone if not more, I expect he's throwing a temper tantrum that he isn't getting his normal Yankee money. Dodgers..not sure they spend or not, but they already have a higher payroll than any other team.
