I just don't know where Correa's $300M+ deal is going to come from even if he does have a great season: Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit, Oakland, Tampa, Colorado, and PIttsburgh either cannot afford him or are not likely to be competitive enough to spend that kind of money next offseason. St. Louis, San Diego, Boston, White Sox, Twins, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Phillies all have quality multi-year solutions at both SS and 3B. I have a really, really hard time seeing Miami or Cincinnati spending $300M on one player. Dodgers (Seager) and Mets (Lindor) are likely to sign 2 of the other big names. I highly doubt any team is going to give Correa $300M with plans for him to be a 3B from day one, which would take the Nationals (who are in decline and will be losing Scherzer) and Braves (who will be focused on Freeman and their rotation) out of the mix. So that leaves a handful of teams that have the need, are somewhat competitive, and might have some money to throw around: Nobody knows if the Diamondbacks, Mariners, or Rangers will be ready to spend, as they are all at varying stages of rebuilding. The Cubs (whose 3 best players are all pending free agents) and Giants (who project to be awful) should be entering rebuilds, not spending $300M. Milwaukee? Under the radar suitor, but unlikely to blow $300M. That would leave the Astros and the Angels. The Angels have so much money tied up in Rendon and Trout that it's hard to see them having 50% of their payroll tied up in 3 players, especially since they'll be trying to replace 3/5 of their rotation. Unless one of the Diamondbacks, Mariners, or Rangers are wanting to overspend just to make headlines, I don't see any team giving him $300M regardless of what kind of season he has. Now if he has a great season and his price dips down into the $200M range I could see the Angels and Rangers being players. At $150M his market opens up a lot more. If the Astros offered $200M with opt-outs, Correa would be very wise to take it.
Correa was so lucky MLB expanded the playoffs last year. If we didn't limp into the playoffs with our losing record his value would be much less right now. That playoff run boosted his arbitration and might help him land a big extension He was 17th among SS in OPS during the 2020 regular season.
Since 2017, Correa has been the 13th most valuable SS (lumped around guys like DeJong, Taylor, Segura, and Gregorius) and 48th most valuable position player (same as guys like Brett Gardner and Michael Brantley) in the league. That is not a $300M player. His youth and upside might make him a marquee contract player ($150M+), but anyone that gives him over $200M is taking a big, big risk. And he is NOT a $300M player by any stretch no matter what he does this season.
If the Astros haven't discussed an extension or reached out to Correa by now. They aren't going to sign him. This will be his last year here.
The idea wouldn't be to take any ABs from Bregman. I think Altuve and Correa's skill sets play best at 2nd and 3rd respectively, and Bregman's preternatural baseball instincts and solid but not extraordinary athleticism would play well anywhere on the infield and LF. If Peña develops into a plus or better defensive SS who is solid offensively, the Astros are probably best off keeping him at short. If you can find an equivalent value for Peña that fits the team better, sure make a trade. But if not, having a superstar bag that can immediately slide into an everyday role to cover an injury at 5 positions is pretty cool. If everyone is healthy and playing well, Bregman could take more of Peña's starts than anyone else, and the Astros could do an infield version of the Marisnick shuffle with Peña replacing Altuve after his last AB. Like a souped up version of 2017 Marwin or peak Zobrist. Bregman seems as good as any player to be able to pull off that kind of role. This assumes Bregman could hit the same as a super sub and that playing 5 positions wouldn't hurt his defense too much at any 1 position.
At this point the Astros know there's really no point in continuing to make offers he would spit on. There's simply a huge differential between what he's proven to be worth thus far, and what he thinks he can get. He thinks he should be making 250-300 million, and his talent agrees with that. His results don't, nor have they even been close over the last 3 years. If Correa has a mediocre year, he will certainly have to readjust his expectations. If he dominates the Astros will likely make a stronger offer. Until then, there's no reason for either side to feel differently than they have
Nope. Astros want to reset the luxury tax penalty, signing him to an extension prevents that. As was said there aren’t many suitors for him and there’s big SS FA’s on next years market. Lindor, Seager, Story & Baez. Astros are loaded in spending money next year.
We need his defense. His bat will be elite one day. Cant let him get away. Bregs-correa-altuve till we die.
Nope. Scroll down and click on the 2019 payroll and look at the right columns. Verlander signed his extension for 20/21 during spring training of 2019. His AAV for 2019 did not change and the AAV for 20/21 were both 33 million and not reduced. Also, under length/total value the 2 contracts are listed. 180/7 =25.714 million AAV from the first contract. New 33 million AAV didn't start until 2020 https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/
"We just feel like offering him 1/3 of what he thinks he is worth would not go over very well via text."
Sounds like the Scott Boras move except in reverse. Boras likes to talk with the owner instead of the general manager. Sounds like Click likes to talk to the player instead of the agent.
Eric Longenhagen hits on the concept in this podcast. The 48:30-51:30 segment is his forward-thinking look on what prospects/players are most valuable. He also says nice things about Jairo Solis and Hunter Brown at different points later in the podcast. He mentions that the baseball is expected to be deadened, and how that might make flyball pitchers more valuable. Depending how the ball effects the defensive value of a CF, the Astros could go offensive with Tucker or defensive with Straw. Straw's offense doesn't involve much power, and he seems to have unusually good plate discipline for a contact-oriented defensive player, so he may be less impacted than other players.
