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[Official] Astros Off Season

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 18, 2020.

  1. Nook

    Nook Member

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    George Springer having some negative feelings towards the Astros has been the worst kept secret in baseball.
     
  2. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Speculation or provable fact?
     
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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/10/rob-manfred-mlb-debt-revenue-losses-commissioner.html

    It’s a reach, but taking Manfred’s comments and trying to figure how much profit Houston lost this season vs expectations, I’d peg it at somewhere between $50M and $120M. That’s based on Manfred’s $3B total league losses and adjusting for the fact that the league/owners always lie about that ****, and making some guesses about where Houston would fit. Also assuming they will spread those losses over 2-3 seasons, we end up with Houston’s payroll needing to be reduced by between $15M and $60M over the next 2-3 seasons. Then, assuming they were planning on maintaining the ~$200M payroll they’ve had the last couple years, that means 2021-2022 payroll would average somewhere between $185M and $140M. Houston’s current 2021 payroll commitments (including expected arb raises but not counting Verlander) sits at $120M. So Houston likely has between $10M and $50M available to add this offseason. That’s a wide range, somewhere between adding 1-2 cheap high risk guys and being able to sign a couple really good players. Obviously if it’s at the bottom of that range, Brantley is very unlikely to receive a QO.
     
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  4. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    I've known this for years, I play softball with George's wife's brother. There is definite ill will towards the organization based on service time manipulation, weak extension offers and messy arbitration cases.
     
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  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Adell made contact on pitches in the zone worse than would have been expected from most pitchers if pitchers were allowed to hit this year. There is a chance he can become good like Moncada, but odds are he is no longer viewed nearly as valuable as a Top 10 prospect. As bad as Toro was this year, he's projected to be a better hitter than Adell right now by FanGraphs because Adell was that bad. When Tucker had a bad first cup of coffee, at least his bat touched the ball and hit it 90+ mph often...though on ground and into the shift. Adell couldn't make contact with heat. He couldn't make contact with breaking pitches.

    Here's his whiff% zone breakdown.

    upload_2020-10-27_13-46-51.png

    Middle-middle....missing over 40% of the time. Josh James is probably the only pitcher that would regularly hit the low middle and inside middle often.

    Trading for Adell would be a high risk move when Astros best year may be next season. Odds are if he breaks out, it won't be next year.
     
    #245 Joe Joe, Oct 27, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
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  6. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    The Angels position prospects are almost all poor contact hitters in the minors and likely most of them are over-rated as guys that struggle to make contact in the minors tend to suck in the majors outside of a few exceptions. Despite an average farm system ranking....I don't expect Trout and Rendon to get much help.
     
  7. awc713

    awc713 Member
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    I’m guessing this would create all kinds of internal issues...and Correa/Bregman would probably NOT be happy...but the idea of signing Simmons, slotting Correa at 3B and Bregman in the outfield is an interesting notion. Makes sense if we think were unlikely to resign Correa. May not be worth the internal upheaval that a move like this could create, but Simmons could be an interesting add. There are a lot of FA options for our OF needs, so maybe this is to radical, but an interesting idea.
     
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  8. AznH-TownFan

    AznH-TownFan Member

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    Money talks, bullshit walks. I expect the same with every free agents.
     
  9. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    While George has every right to feel a bit cheated, don't many/most players have this experience?
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Many, yes. Most no. There just aren't that many players that dominate for that long in the upper levels. In last 14 years, Alex Gordon is the only guy with more plate appearances in AA/AAA with Springer-level dominance or better in the upper levels.
     
  11. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Hope George doesn't know that.
     
  12. SamCassell

    SamCassell Contributing Member

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    All the hurt feelings stuff doesn't mean anything, imo. I think players in general, and Springer in particular, are going to go where the money is. If Houston offers the most money, he stays. If not, he's gone and the team nets a compensation pick.
     
  13. RKREBORN

    RKREBORN Member

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    Money always heals feelings.
     
  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Besides for guys like Cole who's contracts will likely be large enough to limit the field to 1-2 teams or small enough that any difference is a big deal, the money is usually close that the player can make a choice without it impacting them.
     
  15. RKREBORN

    RKREBORN Member

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    I LOVE Springer, but throwing the bank at him doesnt make sense. They need to offer a QO, re-sign him, and trade him like how Boston did with Mookie. Maybe add some dead weight salary with him to shed payroll
     
  16. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros STILL 2017 Champions
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    I can understand his ill will feelings being heightened more so now. He figures he could have been a free agent after last season before COVID and perhaps signed somewhere before the the sign stealing investigation was over. Being a free agent a year later may have cost him upwards of 100 million dollars.
     
  17. awc713

    awc713 Member
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  18. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    Well thats not looking promising.
     
  19. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    Most teams will be in similar situation. I expect nothing this offseason, but the hope is everyone is poor and we get value in the market.
     
  20. raining threes

    Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    What do you think caused Springer's negative feelings?
     

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