Click was the GM for the Astros when they had private workout and made offer. Luhnow may have been interested with the information the Astros staff provided him, but he did not close deal with the information he had. Click with the additional information closed the deal. Click gets full credit as he took over things how they were and proceeded to make a decision that was not made. Considering how the rumors of the Astros view of Leon is, if the information analyzed from the workout during the Click was not the primary component in agreeing to a deal with him, they should not have waited to the workout to work out a deal with him. In other words, the Astros view of him has been described as a high first round pick which has a value of $60-$120M and they only signed him for $4M. Considering that IFA pool money restricts the amount of money players can sign for, the average expected value (please note huge variance) from a $4M signing should be in the $8-$12M range. I don't think of Luhnow as gun shy, so even if he was interested, he would have needed the workout information to agree to that deal with Leon.
Rich Hill only got $2.5M from the Rays. The SP values are out there, I think it would be a big mistake for Click not to add some depth.
2.5 mil for Rich Hill is more than I’d care for. Astros don’t need a starter nearly as bad as they need a closer or CF.
If Houston can get a proven closer or starting caliber CF for $2.5 then I’m all for it, but I don’t think that’s possible.
Id pay a lot more for a proven closer or starting caliber CF than what Rich Hill is earning. If they are gonna be paid 2.5 mil or more they should be a good enough talent worthy of cracking this roster. Rich has pitched 100+ innings 3 times in the last 13 seasons (132 innings has been his best output).
You are going to have to give names and not just a hypothetical of value based on one contract to a 40 year old pitcher. Below are the remaining free agent starters. Who is going to make 2.5 million or less and be someone you want in the rotation over what we have now or taking up a bullpen spot until an injury occurs in the rotation? All the guys I had any interest in are gone and they all made more than 2.5 million ( Rodon, Urena, Quintana, Minor, etc). Brett Anderson (33) Tyler Anderson (31) Homer Bailey (35) Trevor Cahill (33) Zack Godley (31) Gio Gonzalez (35) Cole Hamels (37) Mike Leake (33) Tommy Milone (34) Jake Odorizzi (31) James Paxton (32) Rick Porcello (32) Tyson Ross (34) Jeff Samardzija (36) Anibal Sanchez (37) Matt Shoemaker (34) Julio Teheran (30) Taijuan Walker (28)
I will be very interested in seeing what Porcello signs for. He will very likely get more than $2.5M but I think he could be an excellent value.
I also think he gets more than 2.5 and I would rather have Pillar over Porcello. We need an upgrade at CF more than we need a guy that might not even be an upgrade as a 6th or 7th starter.
I know the likelihood is low...but I would love for LMJ to embrace a long-term closer role here in HOU. He could be a truly dominant closer.
I don't see an easy path to an extension with McCullers this offseason. He has a giant ego and it doesn't match his career stats. Lance will probably bet on himself for another year rather than take a potentially team friendly extension which is the only way the Astros would likely want to do an extension with McCullers. It's hard for me to even imagine what that deal would look like considering his inability to stay healthy and throw innings. I don't even think the closer idea is worth talking about. He will be a starter until nobody in mlb will pay him to be a starter.
3 years 36 million. $10 million incentives if he pitches a certain number of innings. Hard to make projections based on first year after TJ surgery. This will be the make or break year.
I would be hesitant to do that deal if I am the Astros. We don't know what we will need for the rotation in 2022. We don't know if Framber, Urquidy, or Javier will emerge as legit top of the rotation starters for a full season. I think the book is out on McCullers. He is unlikely to be a 1 or 2 in a rotation. If 2 of Framber, Urquidy, and Javier show they can be top of the rotation starters then yes that deal is probably fine for keeping McCullers. However, if those 3 instead end up being more of a 3,4,5 in a rotation that McCullers deal could be a problem when you need to go out and get a Syndergaard or bring back a Greinke or Verlander depending on how their season/rehab goes.
The Astros are going to have to develop pitching to have sustainable success in the future. If none of their current arms can pan out as a solid every 5th day starter, they’re not going to be in contention to warrant throwing big money at an established starter. Even the 2017 Astros don’t make the JV trade without Keuchel still being a solid #2. There’s just as high a chance (maybe higher) that Framber continues the progress he made in 2020 as LMJ rounding into a better place a full year plus after TJ surgery. as it is, I don’t expect the Astros to ever give a non arbitration year pitcher more than a 3 year deal.
Yep. Basically, Framber, Urquidy, and Javier look to give the Astros a chance at sustainable success.
Inflated ego folks tend to see themselves as they are capable of, not as the actual production on the field warrants. While this is a good thing in some aspects, its not when doing salary negotiations. When taking into account his injury history and his more than occasional emotional big inning undoings, he has both a low floor and a high ceiling (his stuff is still excellent when its working). Where else can you aim than down the middle somewhere? He wont stay for floor money and we wouldn't be smart to offer him high ceiling money either. Yes, its hard to imagine what deal will make both parties happy.
I would gladly give McCullers a $40M/4yr extension with big time incentives for >160 IP and saves. But drawing conclusions from his public persona, he probably thinks he’s going to win the Cy young this year and command $100M+ next offseason.
