Colome to the twins for 5 mil and a second year option at 5.5 mil. The Baez deal is looking like a real head scratcher
For the AL since 2014, FanGraphs has not had a 75% or better preseason odds for postseason miss the playoffs besides for Boston and Cleveland failing in 2019. Sure sometimes there is a 10%-25% chance team that jumps a 60% team every now and then, but that is to be expected.
Don’t hate the signing but the money for Baez was too much. Blame it on jumping on the market after the Hendriks deal. I like the moves that don’t really push the needle far enough but can take a few wins away from the White Sox.
I think that was causing him command problems. His slider was moving nearly a foot more horizontally than it was the previous year. It is interesting that he has an above average movement pitch up, down, left, and right.
So just watched Colome sign for 5 million with the Twins... and watched Soria sign for 3.5 million with the Diamondbacks. Two guys that have saved over 40 games in a season, that have that valuable experience Click said he wanted. Both guys have career era’s under 3. Don’t worry though, Click got Pedro Baez For 6.25 million a year and added Jason Castro for 3.5 million. Could have had Colome, Soria and Avila for the same money but I am sure Click has a plan.
Am fine with Pressly closing and signing a starter to the pen or giving Abreu, Garcia, Scrubb, Whitley a shot at the last spot. These are the final pieces of the depth chart nothing to get too worked up over. 1. Maldonado 2. Castro 3. Gurriel 4. Altuve 5. Bregman 6. Correa 7. Diaz 8. Toro 9. Brantley 10. McCormick, Straw, Leon or a 1yr deal on a FA 11. Tucker 12. & 13. Stubbs, McCormick, Straw, Souza or Leon 14. Alvarez 1. Grienke 2. Valdez 3. McCullers 4. Urquidy 5. Javier 6. Pressly 7. Smith 8. Paredes 9. Taylor 10. Baez 11. Stanek 12. Raley 13. Pruitt 14. Rosenthal or FA Starter or Abreu, L. Garcia, Scrubb, Whitley, etc
Certainly on the surface at this point Baez looks like an obvious overpay, but it also would not surprise me if Baez ends up being more productive than both Colome and Soria. We’ll just have to see. But Castro is better than Avila. I like Avila but he is just a tier down from Castro. Castro will have to have a career worst year in order for his contract to look bad.
Barring injuries, there’s really only 2 roster spots up for grabs. Locks: C: Castro, Maldonado IF: Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Diaz, Toro OF: Tucker, Alvarez, Brantley, Straw P: Greinke, McCullers, Valdez, Urquidy, Javier, Pressly, Baez, Smith, Raley, Paredes, Stanek, Taylor So the 2 open spots are: 1. An outfield spot between Souza, McCormick, or Siri 2. A pitching spot between Scrubb, Martes, Garcia, Abreu, Bielak, or Whitley (this assumes James and Pruitt are still hurt at opening day) I am still hopeful they will acquire a starter like Porcello or Jon Gray. I am less hopeful about the outfield but am hoping they still bring someone in, whether trading for someone like Benintendi or signing a desperate free agent like Pillar, Villar, or Marisnick.
Click is paying Baez the same sort of money Luhnow handed out to high-leverage arms...Pressly, Harris, Rondon, Smith, etc. I don’t fault him for getting the middle reliever he and Strom liked after the Hendriks deal. He could have waited and maybe still had him on the board now for $3 million or maybe not.
Soria's career ERA is 0.02 less than Baez. Colome's is 0.08 less. Never seen so much love on this board for 2 Pedro Baez clones and a catcher that watches more third strikes than Castro. Signing Soria and Colome doesn't fix the need/want for a reliever that will likely be great instead of guys that have been good/great in the past. Avila, Castro....don't really see much difference in projections regarding overall value, but Avila's value seems tied to him not swinging the bat. That seems exploitable vs Castro getting it on defense and hitting crap out of the ball at least sometimes. Caveat: Never really noticed Avila so only going on stats.
I will take two Baez clones over one Baez. I don’t think Colome or Soria are sacred cows but I do think getting two quality arms beats getting one. As for Avila, if his ability to walk is exploitable so if Castro who has hit .200 over the last three years.
serious question, do we know if FAs like those wanted to be here? Did click jump on Baez because he was one of the few who were willing? I am not assuming that Houston has n issue tracking FA, but it is a fair question that should be asked. I would think it’s ultimately about money, but is there a premium of some kind the astros have to pay?
I can live with Avila if that means an upgrade in CF or P. I mean he only will probably be starting 55-60 games this yr and you save 2 million.
