Took another review of AL rosters since there's been a lot of free agent moves since I last looked. As things stands I do not think Houston is a viable WS contender. They are likely to make the playoffs and are probably even favored to win their division, but they are just not in the same class as some of the other teams, especially when factoring in value that contenders have in their farm system and payroll capacity. Contenders: White Sox, Twins, Yankees, Rays, Jays Playoff mix: Astros, Indians, Angels, A's Bad: Royals, Mariners, Orioles, Tigers Terrible: Rangers
I do not think Altuve is overpaid. Despite his down year, I still think he would have been able to top $110M/4yrs if he were a free agent. Look at how much the Cards took on for Arenado and he sucked in 2020. Now, if Altuve has another bad season this year then the remaining $87M/3yrs may look like a bad deal.
FWIW I don't know if he will pitch, I think there is a better chance than most think because of how diligent he is with his recovery. As far as last year, there is more to it than most realize. The Astros knew it was torn before it was reported and they knew he would need surgery and they told Verlander that. Verlander did not want to hear that and wanted to try and comeback. At the end of the day it was Verlander's arm and they let him control how he wanted to do it. I don't mind how the Astros handled it either.
There is no way in hell the Rays (without Snell and Morton) are going to make the playoffs in a division with three more put together clubs. Jays don’t have the starting pitching or lineup too match the Astros, same with the Twins. This infuriated me. Contenders: Astros, White Sox, Yankees Playoff Mix: Blue Jays, Twins, Red Sox, Angels, A’s
Going into last year, did anyone have the Rays as a viable WS contender on the level of the Yankees or Astros? They were likely in the "probably make the playoffs" category.
I think it is really too early to tell. The Astros are clearly a level above the teams you grouped them with and I think the Astros are better than the Twins as well. I think the Indians and A's off the bat lost too much. As for the Angels, I don't think they are good enough at this point. They lack depth. The Twins have a really good offense but I don't think it will be as good as the Astros this year. Altuve and Bregman are due for bounce back years and Alvarez is likely as good or better a hitter than Springer. The Astros offensively should be better. The Twins have a few young guys that could improve as well, but they also have a couple guys they lean hard on that could be entering the point of slowing down. As far as pitching goes, I think the Astros have the advantage over the Twins both in likely results and upside. The Rays are very good, and they beat the Astros last year (although the Astros had their chances). Still the Rays lost Snell and Morton off their team and there are questions about their pitching. That basically leaves the Yankees, Blue Jays and White Sox. The Jays have questions in their rotation and the White Sox are very young...... the Yankees have the best "names" in the AL. Their offense is obviously loaded and very very deep. The Yankees potentially have the best rotation in the AL...... Cole/Kluber/Severino/Taillon/German ...... they lost Tanaka and Paxton ......... the problem with the Yankees staff is that 4 of the 5 are coming off injuries or suspension and the Yankees don't have a lot of depth to replace them successfully and if they are serious about avoiding the tax then they are going to be stuck.
The Astros probably don't have the high inning starters which will make it difficult to match the Yankees win total in the regular season. In the playoffs, this Astros team likely will still be a great hitting team that can also shove highly effective starters in short stints down the other team's throat. Just need clutch hitting and health. I think Click wants to add one more reliever to help the starters during the regular season.
If that's the standard, though, the Astros should be considered a WS contender this year since we took the Rays to 7 in the 2020 ALCS. And probably the A's too, since they took the Astros to 5 games in the ALDS too.
Astros are definate WS contenders. A’s didn’t retain their top three FA’s and continue not to spend. Gonna be tougher for them to reach the playoffs this year.
A's didn't take the Astros to 5 games and got lucky to get to 4. Also on the Rays, they were projected to win the second most games in 2020 one game behind the Yankees.
Also why the Yankees made salary dump moves to be able to make in season trade for another pitcher. If all their pitching comes together and that's a big if, they are set and should be heavy favorites to win. They still have two massive players in Stanton and Judge that can't stay healthy. I'm betting the house that the Yankees are going to push for a 2nd or 3rd starter to go with Cole. As far as the Astros, they have a huge question mark imo when it comes to pitching. 2020 success for some key guys that pitched well isn't a lock for a full season for 2021. Houston will need to win a lot of games with their offense. Houston is still a contender on paper but if other teams start making in season trades and if Click is gonna not click, they won't make a long run in October. AL is wide open....
The Astros will likely get a lot of innings out of Valdez this season. He is an absolute horse. Also they likely get 200 innings out of Greinke as he has done it 6 of the last 7 years (I left out the short season last year). I agree that we don't know what we will get from McCullers and Javier. If we have Urquidy healthy we should get 200 innings out of him. So there is a good chance we have three starters giving us 200 innings or more. I think having someone that is like Pruitt that can be a bridge for spot starts or can go several innings is really important. I also really hope the Astros pluck one of the many starters still out there that are on the market.
I have had the Rays as contenders the last 3 years. I put futures money on them in 2018, 2019, and 2020. The Twins are extremely deep and talented. Their rotation has a lot of upside with Pineda. They have an excellent farm with 2 elite elite prospects in Kiriloff and Lews. They have a lineup with 4 star level hitters and no holes. They have an extra everyday-caliber IF in Polanco/Arraez now that they signed Simmons. They will be excellent defensively. They may be my futures pick this season. I would easily take Berrios-Maeda-Pineda over Greinke-Valdez-McCullers in a 3 game series. I agree Astros are better than the Indians but the Indians still have a legit ace and a deep farm so they will be competitive. A's have a hole in the middle infield which will keep them from truly contending but their rotation has depth and upside, and they have 3 all-stars on offense. Angels have really increased their SP depth and don't have any holes in their lineup. Of course and injury to Trout or Ohtani would be devastating because they have no farm or bench depth. I will still take Houston to win the division but Oakland and LAA will be right there. A big part of why I think the Rays will be contenders despite losing Snell/Morton is their farm depth. They have a stacked farm they can use to strike at the deadline if they are in the mix which they should be with their lineup depth. They have a ton riding on Glasnow's health tho. Toronto added vets in Springer, Semien to go with Ryu, Yates, Grichuk. They have young stars but their team is not that young overall. They will be super tough especially if Pearson reaches his ceiling. Similarly, the White Sox have Grandal, Abreu, Eaton, Lynn, Keuchel, etc. to balance out their young talent. Yankees are stacked and they have mitigated their SP risk not just with young starters waiting in the wings (Garcia, German, Schmidt) but also with their reliever depth. The Astros have a chance, it's just not a very good one compared to previous years. Other AL teams have improved and Houston is not as good, especially in the rotation. Right now Houston is 22 to 1 to win WS and I think that's a fair assessment. Blue Jays are 25-1, Angels 40-1, and Indians 35-1 which I think would be much better bets.
There are about 14 200-inning starters in a normal year...it was 45 a decade ago. 2020 was a f@#$ed up year that saw the starters throw less than 100 innings. Click likely wants Dusty to limit the pitchers' innings. Dusty is going to Dusty, though. I can see Dusty fighting for Greinke and Valdez. I worry Greinke, while able to throw 200-innings, is going to get pissed off getting pulled early if he isn't pitching well. Urquidy...his pitches were moving a lot better last year, but consequently he was having trouble with command. I don't think Dusty will fight to get him to 200 innings.
Agree on Greinke, Valdez, LMJ. Hard to imagine Urquidy going 200 though. He was 125 in 2016, 0 in 2017, 57 in 2018, 144 in 2019, and 30 in 2020 (not a full workload even in the abbreviated year). I don't think they'd risk spiking his workload that hard even if he appears ready. Definitely expecting a signing or 2 at some point--there are plenty of people out there. Hard to predict what this season's trade market will bring also, pending crowds and revenue and all.
How can anybody be certain who are contenders and who are not it seems that at 4 teams come out of nowhere every year in both leagues and the team that made all the moves don't really do anything. Looking at you Toronto and WS.
Colome expected to sign with Twins. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/02/twins-rumors-alex-colome-closer-reliever.html
As for the Twins, I think they are contenders. I don't think they are the favorite but if you told me you think they will win the World Series I wouldn't really argue with you. I just do not think that they are really any better than the Astros. They have a rotation that I believe could be good, but it also could end up being very mediocre. I don't think that the Astros will end up putting Greinke-Valdez-McCullers in a three man rotation by the time the playoffs come around. I really think the Astros have under rated young pitchers and Valdez will be the ace most likely and McCullers will be pushed out of the top 3 in the rotation by one of the younger guys. Last year Valdez and Greinke had some degree of bad luck..... if I remember correct both had FIP's of well below 3 in a decent same size. I do not see Maeda being nearly as good as last year. He had a WHIP of like .7 and that got him a FIP of 3.00..... he just has a very small margin for error. I have always loved Pineda's ability. I love the Indians organization and they will be competitive but I just believe they have too many holes. The Angels will be improved, they even have someone like Addell that could come out and emerge. I just don't see them as anything special. The Rays have a very strong bullpen, they play great defense and have young talent. I would not be surprised if they go to the World Series next year. However I do not think that they are a level above the Astros going into this season. I agree both are very talented and both also have money and prospects to burn at the deadline. However both of them are a bit of a wild card. The problem with the Yankees is that they have so many guys with injury concerns. They can absorb one of their starters not bouncing back.... but what about two? I am not so sure about that. They will win a ton of games with Cole at the top and their line up but come playoffs time they will need more than that. I have put money on the Astros at 20-1 odds. It is worth it to me simply because I like the talent on the pitching side of the farm system and the younger guys on the big league club. The Astros also have the possibility that Verlander is back. The Astros rotation can go many different ways. Greinke could get hurt and the younger arms like Valdez and Urquidy and Javier could all bomb. However I look at some of the advanced numbers on the Astros starters and having watched them I am very optimistic that they not only can replicate what they did last year but improve on it. Greinke last year had a FIP of around 2.80 and his strike outs went up. For his career his ERA is right on point for his FIP. Valdez was dominant in the post season, and even during the regular season he was striking out guys at a high clip and not allowing many hits. If he keeps not giving free passes, he will be better than last year. His FIP last year was also around 2.80.... and he pitched as well in the post season as any Astros pitcher in a long time, he showed that he can be an actual ace. Anyone that watched Christian Javier much last year saw what he is capable of doing. His FIP was ugly, but he had a WHIP last season under 1.0 and home runs were the only thing that prevented him from being one of the hardest pitchers in the league to hit. He too came into pressure situations against good hitters in the playoffs and was overall dominant. Urquidy has not had a full season yet but he had a WHIP of around 1.00. He doesn't walk anyone and he doesn't give up a lot of hits or homeruns. That is a recipe for someone being successful and he isn't doing it with smoke and mirrors. He has a good stuff. McCullers is someone that I do not count on but all of his advances statistics scream potential dominance if he can stop walking so many people. He doesn't give up homers, he doesn't give up a lot of hits and he strikes out a good number of batters. He literally just needs to stay healthy and cut down on his walks. Even if he doesn't cut down on his walks he is still a very good #4-5 starter.
The change in Urquidy's breaking pitches from 2019 and 2020 is fascinating - each went from having poor to pedestrian break to above average/elite break. I wonder how that came about.
