My predictions: - Marwin is gone. I would love to see him stay, but Luhnow will replace internally where possible. Yuli/Kemp/White will cover Marwin's appearances. Prediction: WAS: 3y, 45m - Kuechel is gone. Only way I see him back is if his performance outside of MMP really caps his market. I just don't it, especially with our internal SP options. Prediction: ATL or NYY: 4y 100m, 4th year player option - Cole extended: 3y, 85m - JV extended: 3y, 90m - Morton resigns: 2y, 35m, team option 2nd year - S. Perez acquired for Alvarez and 2 prospects - (2) relievers: Ottavino (3y 30m) and Brach (2y, 18m) and a flier a la A.J. Ramos - (2) bats: Murphy (2y, 23m, team option), and one vet flier C: Perez, Stassi 1B: White, Yuli 2B: Altuve 3B: Bregman SS: Correa OF: Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp, Tucker DH: Murphy SP: Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Valdez, James RP: Peacock, Osuna, Pressly, Ottavino, Brach, Harris, Devo INJ: LMJ Fighting for last roster spot: Smith, Perez, Martes, Fisher, Davis
It's entertaining to see some of you think the Astros are going to play the off season like a video game. You also said Morton would be resigned but left him out of your rotation. Your plan increases the payroll about 30 million from last year at a minimum. If that Cole extension started next season it would make the total increase in payroll about 44 million. That would put the Astros in luxury tax levels. I can assure you, Jim Crane and the ownership group aren't paying that.
$44M would absolutely not put Houston in luxury tax range. I dont think they make all those moves but you’re wrong about them being anywhere near luxury tax threshold if they did. They probably have ~$30-40M to add, assuming they don’t do any extensions. Springer will age poorly, Correa is coming off a down year, Bregman is too far away, and Cole/Verlander are too close to free agency. I don’t think any extensions get done. They will add 2-4 free agents and 1-2 players via trade.
That 44 million is the approximate INCREASE over last year's payroll with awc713's additions last years payroll 160 million free agents coming off the books -55 million subtracting cole's salary from last year since awc713 gives him an extension later -6.75 million arbitration increases without Cole since he signs extension according to awc713 13 million awc713 free agency/trade/extension spending... 17.5 morton + 11.5 perez + 10 ottavino, + 9 brach, + 5 aj ramos + 11.5 murphy + 28 cole =92.5 million 160-55-6.75+13+92.5 = 203.75 MILLION
It’s a typo dude, get over yourself. And yes, a bit of it is armchair GMing that I don’t expect to get done. It’s a forum, not some featured published op-ed. It’s a Sunday post. It’s also not so far fetched that it’s out of the rhelm of possibility. Thrust of my projections would be that we re-fill mostly internally, but with a few outsources. Maybe one big piece a la Perez. Obviously it’s unlikey that that much is invested into both Ottavino and Brach...and Ramos at 5m isn’t a flier. Perhaps one or two extensions for pieces already in place, and those extensions don’t affect the 2019 payroll.
Does not make me want him back on the team js.. Good for him it might get him more money from some other team
It's been asked and not really answered... Why are so many so against a SP who ate up 200+ innings with an ERA below 4 and appears to be the best defensive pitcher in baseball? I'm not saying I'm for giving him $20+ million per over the next decade...but to say we wouldn't want him back is a tad silly.
That doesn't really mean anything as far as his value goes. It's already factored into his results, and doesn't effect anybody but him. As for not wanting him back, I don't know of a single person that has said that. Nobody wants him back at his likely price tag. If he would sign for 4/60 or something along those lines most of us would warmly welcome him back. I would be fine with him taking the QO, but paying Dallas Keuchel 100 million dollars is likely a mistake. A mistake that we can't make with so many bills coming due over the next few years.
The person I quoted said it... And I disagree. While it's not at the top of the list of importance, there certainly is value in having a great defensive player on the mound. I don't disagree with the rest of what you said. I just think it's silly to say we don't want him back regardless.
I am not an advanced analytics guy by any means, but I'm not sure that pitching defense does get baked into results. Presumably it limits unearned runs, which do not get reflected in the traditional pitching metrics. It should also help a bit to limit opposing BABIP. Good fielding and controlling the running game means a pitcher can be successful without as many strikeouts. And having a different type of pitcher in the rotation may make it tougher on opposing lineups to get comfortable in a series. It should also be a skill that fades less with age than raw velocity does. Those are all things that don't get reflected in the typical (W-L, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP) pitching lines we usually look at.
To answer the question from my point. Tou cannot trust Keuchal on a game to game bases. Sure he did what he did but it wouldnt be enough overall to keep his top three status. Maybe 5th starter type which would mean his money would need to be way down. But it's a trust thing with his pitching. It's not very good overall
If Dallas Keuchel rejects the QO, he could not sign back with the Astros until after April 1 or some such, right?
It's all about $$$$$$$$$ and how the Astros are built. Of course most people would want him back on the qualifying offer or 3 year deal for less than 60 million. That's not reality though. He's going to get about 20 million for probably 5 years which could limit the Astros ability to hold onto Bregman or Correa. Statistically Keuchel was our 4th best starter last year. The Astros are deep with starting pitching. McHugh, Peacock, Whitley, Valdez, Josh James, JB Bukauskas, Cionel Perez, Corbin Martin, etc. We aren't deep in other areas that need to be addressed. For instance, we need a catcher. The Astros can't afford to spend 20 million dollars a year for 5 years on their number 3/4 pitcher when they have holes to fill next year and want to try and keep Springer, Bregman, or Correa long term. I have brought this guy's name up a couple times but it makes sense to me. Kyle Gibson is on his last year of arbitration with the Twins and is estimated to make 8 million dollars. His numbers were very similar to Keuchel's last year. Gibson 10-13, 3.62 ERA, 196 innings, 1.302 WHIP Keuchel 12-11, 3.74 ERA, 204 innings, 1.314 WHIP The Astros could trade for Gibson and give up mid tier prospects and only 8 million dollars in salary. It makes way more sense than paying Dallas Keuchel around 20 million dollars for 4, 5, or 6 years.
Raw velocity usually allows some pitchers to hang around as they learn the rest of the game. Problem with someone like Keuchel is that he already has a lot of old man skills such that any improvement in that area is likely limited. As Keuchel losses velocity, he's not going to offset that decline as much with getting craftier. Granted, there are a few guys that can hang around as 4/5 starters indefinitely throwing junk. I typically would not want one of these guys for a playoff team though.
https://houseofhouston.com/2018/11/05/houston-astros-value-free-agents-2019/5/ Five value free agents who can elevate the team in 2019 Curtis Granderson, OF/DH Justin Wilson, LHP Josh Harrison, 2B/3B/OF Derek Holland, LHP Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Brewers
