If that were last offseason then it might make sense. But Realmuto now only has 2 seasons left. He’s going to get significant raises via arbitration. If you peg him as a 4 WAR player he will have $40-50M in surplus value, with very little upside and significant downside (injury). Tucker by himself represents $30M+ in surplus value, JBB is harder to value but could represent $10-20M. I’m pretty firm that any team that gives up an mlb Top 20 prospect for Realmuto will be overpaying. 3-4 guys in the 50-150 range is fair value imho.
Thanks. Makes total sense now. I'd pass on him then, unless of course it drove his price so far down that it made him attractive (like Moustakas last year signing for $5.5M). I'd guess he takes it.
https://thefandc.radio.com/marlins-rejected-nationals-jt-realmuto-trade-proposal-report The offer was made at the deadline and Robles and Kieboom were included. That is a 5 top and a top 30ish prospect and the Marlins said NO. I don't think they will significantly lower their price this offseason. If I had to guess it would be something like Tucker, Alvarez, Corbin Martin, and another top 30 prospect in our system.
May the market will not be as contracted and someone pays him 3/55..... otherwise I am with you, he should take the QO. The one that I am curious to see if Wilson Ramos. He didn't fetch much at the deadline last year, and he has a history of injuries, but his bat was very good. He had over a .900 OPS versus lefties too. I know the reputation of him being lazy behind the plate, but the offensive difference between Maldonado and Ramos is enormous.
No way Houston does that. I am not sure I believe that report, and I’m even more skeptical any team will offer them that much this offseason. There are only so many contending teams that have a need and the prospects.
Daniel Murphy wasn't an elite bat last year. Saw a big decline in hard hit balls and more balls hit to the opposite field. Possibly a sign of declining bat speed (granted velocity was a record high from pitchers, so even the same bat speed would change things). Very interesting is that his BB% plummeted, which wouldn't seem like a long-term concern, but Pujols saw a massive decline when he started his drop off, so maybe it is something you lose?
I would be shocked if the Astros offered Tucker, Alvarez and Martin for Realmuto. I think that Alvarez is a superior prospect to Kieboom and Martin more than makes up the difference between Robles and Tucker. With only two years of control on Realmuto, I don't make that type of offer. Realmuto struggled against lefties last year.
Certainly risk of age related decline there but at 2/18 it’s priced in. His walk rate was below his career avg (5.7% vs 6.3%) but not guaranteed to be a sign of major decline, as it’s pretty much what it was from 2011-2013.
I'm just going by what I read and thinking what would be a better offer than that. I would not make that offer either and the high price for Realmuto is one of the reasons I am on the sign Ramos train....
This. With guys like Murphy and Cruz it is buyer beware. They are older, and that is why they are available on short term deals. It is like the Beltran signing, sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't. I personally would be willing to risk it for either one of them, because if they are close to what they were in the past, it is a massive upgrade in the line up. Murphy doesn't have the power that Cruz has, but if younger and can play more spots and makes really good contact. You can plug him in almost anywhere in the line up. Combine that with upgrading the catcher spot to Ramos and the line up is really stretched, and it could have a cascading effect as pitchers will be facing quality hitters every inning. Springer Murphy Altuve Correa Bregman Ramos Gurriel Reddick Tucker
If they do sign Ramos, I wonder if it then makes sense to also sign Maldonado (especially if Ramos only costs $10m/1yr) to mitigate the defensive shortcomings. Ramos hitting 5th in innings 1-7 with Maldonado’s arm closing things out behind the plate sounds pretty good. Not to mention they could probably get in interesting lottery ticket for Stassi.
Yep. Basically any situation that results in a 7-8-9 of Reddick-Gurriel-Tucker is a successful offseason (offensively).
I'm not buying that 10m/1yr deal for Ramos. I expect something more like 36-39 million over 3 years. I think Maldonado might be a little too expensive for a backup.
Maldonado's catching woes in the postseason soured me on him big time. I usually don't pay too much attention to it, but it was ugly. It he were a gunner and hitter, then I could easily tolerate it. But for somebody who is solely being paid to catch, he needs to be much better at it. I would much rather we just go after a real starter and let Stubbs or Stassi be the backup.
You guys do understand that the price took a hit once his agent told the Marlins I'm not resigning and he wants outta there. That's not a big hit but a hit non the less. The package I said would be more then enough to get that deal done Tucker would be the center piece. Then fill in the rest. On another note Swiss G. MARWIN GONZALEZ has officially priced his way outta houston.
He's the best catcher in baseball by leaps and bounds and has two controllable years left. He's a tremendously valuable trade chip, and nothing the agents says or does can/will change that. Granted, we're dealing with the Marlins - but I suspect if he's dealt, it will be for a healthy bounty.
This. There were times last year where Maldonado was an instant out and teams would pitcher around to get to him to kill innings. If you are going to be that big a liability on offense, then you better be special otherwise. Yeah the arm is special, but the glove really wasn't.
He undoubtedly has a terrific arm; but even in a series against two teams that ran as much as any teams in baseball....... he threw one guy out in the ALDS & ALCS?... The value of a defensive catcher who is arm first, pitch-framing second, and plate-blocking (distant) third, has diminished, especially in an era where smarter teams are preaching fewer fastballs.
