[Official] Astros Off Season

I don't have an Athletic sub, but those teams don't make much sense. Cleveland is obviously trying to reduce payroll. Tampa has the lowest attendance in the league and perennially has payroll issues. Pittsburgh and Minnesota make a little more sense, but neither has ever been a high payroll team. Houston has the highest payroll in its history. I can see each of those teams having ~$20M left to spend on a 2nd tier free agent (Moustakas, Dozier, Lowrie, Marwin) but none of those guys are likely to be in play for $50M+ guys (Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Pollock, Grandal, Kimbrel).

 

Here's the article:

Somewhat related and interesting snippet:

 

That makes a little more sense. The Indians payroll last year was an outlier for them, so it makes more sense to look at their last few seasons, in which case Sarris is right that they probably have a handful of dollars to spend on a Markakis or Carlos Gonzalez to shore up their OF. I would not be shocked to see the Twins spend some, but splurging on Keuchel would be surprising, even if it might be the missing piece in a division race. A rotation of Berrios, Keuchel, Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pineda would be one of the deepest in the league, and their lineup doesn't really have many holes (their weakest hitters project to be Jason Castro and Byron Buxton). The Pirates are hard to read, I am not sure if they will add payroll, but it would be utterly shocking to see them as a mystery team for Machado. Marwin would make some sense for them, as would bullpen help.

I think the Astros have $15-20M in the tank, but it remains to be seen if they will find a good way to spend it or whether they can spend that and still have the resources they will need at at the deadline. Realmuto would eat up $8M. It would be a shock to see them in the mix for Harper, Pollock, or Keuchel, but you never know.

 

lineup doesn't really have many holes (their weakest hitters project to be Jason Castro and Byron Buxton)

Just think of what could have been, Astros fans...

 

JD Martinez owes his resurgence to watching Jason Castro

 

I figure if nothing better materializes in the next 2 weeks, Luhnow will probably pull the trigger on a free agent SP. here’s what’s left:

1 ToR SP (Keuchel) who will likely get $70M+.

5 BoR SP (G Gonzalez, Garcia, Anderson, Buchholz, Miley) who have a good enough track record to warrant a 2 year deal, in the $10-20M total range.

17 guys who are BoR SP with enough warts that they are likely to sign a 1 year deal under $10M, and most of them will be NRI types just hoping for a legit chance to make the roster: Miller, Perez, Pomeranz, Holland, Santana, Fister, Liriano, Karns, Tomlin, Hammel, Hellickson, Colon, Gallardo, Estrada, Jackson, Shields, M Gonzalez

I have my eye on Karns and Estrada as two guys I think would be good adds if they take <$5M. Miley, Anderson, Garcia, Santana, Pomeranz, and Miller are also intriguing but I fear the market will overpay them.

 

I really hope something happens via trade. Karns may be the only upside guy of the bunch below Keuchel.

 

PLEASE stay away from Gio Gonzales at the prices suggested. I do not even think Strom could work his magic on that guy.

 

Even if it's just for a few starts, I wouldn't mind seeing Big Sexy take the mound for us.

 

The Astros have talked to guys like Pomeranz that have the potential to bounce back, but the Astros want them at several seasons at team friendly terms.

 

Not surprising, and I think it’ll work out. One of those guys they like is bound to see the opportunity to work with Strom/Verlander and get a ring and be willing to give up some money. Astros are in a good spot since the other contenders don’t appear to need BoR starters. The choice for those guys is to go to a rebuilding team and lose or give up a few million and get a chance at a ring in Houston.

 

Full version:

 

I think we are trying to nab Ottavino. He won't come cheap though, we'd have to outbid several teams for his services.

 

My current top 30 most realistic starting pitcher trade targets:

Greinke
Ray
Stroman
Michael Fulmer
Minor
Godley
Bundy
Cobb
Jon Gray
Leake
Wei-Yin Chen
Duffy
Sonny Gray
Daniel Norris
Aaron Sanchez
Dan Straily
Smyly
Jose Urena
Brad Keller
Matthew Boyd
Wade LeBlanc
Jordan Zimmerman
Ian Kennedy
Bumgarner
Jakob Junis
Marco Gonzalez
Samardzija
Felix Hernandez
Andrew Cashner
Taijuan Walker

 

That list gets depressing after the first 3-4 names. Maybe there is someone down the list that can be reclaimed.

 

I actually like the idea of Matt Boyd from DET. Maybe we can just give them Fisher and one blocked, mid-level pitcher for him. Four years of control, MoR starter, durable, lefty. I really like him. Early in the season he was even near the top of the K leaders IIRC. Decent upside, should be cheap. Worth taking a chance IMO. It's not like we're in dire need of a high end 1 or 2 starter.

 

Boyd's splits are terrible. He's okay to great in that massive pitcher friendly park in Detroit, but is awful on the road.

2017

Home
12 starts, 4.52 ERA, 1.326 WHIP

Away
13 starts, 6.11 ERA, 1.816 WHIP

2018

Home
14 starts, 2.63 ERA, .979 WHIP

Away
17 starts, 5.89 ERA, 1.309 WHIP

 

Yikes! That is discouraging.

 

For the right price I could take myself into liking any name on that list. There are only 2 (Greinke and Ray) who project to be really good this season, but each of those guys has some combination of upside and track record that could give them a chance to fit into the back of Houston’s rotation, even if just to buy time for Whitley/Martin/etc to get ready.