You would think that he would be available but several writers claim the Royals don’t intend to move him. I love his arm and glove but his bat slows at all and it can get ugly.
https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of Tons of Deals I like from that list: Donaldson 3/66 for an mvp bat Grandal 3/39 for one of the top 5 catchers in the game Gio Gonzalez 3/30 for a legit #2-3 SP JA Happ 2/26 good deal for him David Robertson 3/21 good deal for a closer Andrew Miller 2/20 good deal for the upside Daniel Murphy 2/18 for an elite bat Morton 1/17.9 if healthy great value Lance Lynn 2/17 great value for MoR SP Lowrie 2/15 I like him better than Marwin Asdrubal Cabrera 2/14 Also like him better than Marwin Wade Miley 2/13 big upside Beltre 1/10 hof presence for $10M Wilson Ramos 1/10 STEAL Josh Harrison 2/10 better than Marwin Ervin Santana 1/7 steal if Medicals check out Cody Allen 1/7 CarGo 1/6.5 low risk Tucker insurance Tyson Ross 1/5.5 upside w low risk Pomeranz 1/5 Kelvin Herrera 1/9 upside w low risk Lucroy 1/5 Suzuki 1/5 Wieters 1/4 Kinsler 1/4 DH option Chisenhall 1/4 Marco Estrada 1/4 Granderson 1/2.75 Tucker insurance Neil Walker 1/2 big upside for no risk Logan Forsythe 1/2 Poor mans Marwin? Jake Diekman 1/1.25 no risk for high 90s lefty If that is really how the market shakes out Houston should have plenty of money to nab a catcher, a bat, 2 SP, and a RP. Wilson Ramos, Daniel Murphy, Gio Gonzalez, Lance Lynn, and Cody Allen for $42M total in 2019? Sounds like a steal.
Got to the Jon Heyman byline and passed. No thanks. His estimates are in the ballpark but I just can’t support that guy. Some of his takes are so bad. Side note, but I love what The Athletic has put together.
I'm mildly surprised, but I really shouldn't be. Our bullpen has so many other options that $5.5M was just too much to spend, but I think he is worth it. When you compare to what some relievers got last offseason: Luke Gregerson 2/$11M Anthony Swarzak 2/$14M Joe Smith 3/$15M Bryan Shaw 3/$27M Bud Norris 1/$3M Juan Nicasio 2/$17M Pat Neshek 2/$16.25M Tommy Hunter 2/$18M Brandon Kintzler 2/$10M Jake McGee 3/$27M The list could go on and on None of those guys are better than Will Harris, and most are worse. I would have thought a trade would have at least been available (similar to Neshek when we picked up his option and shipped him to Philly). Of course there was the virtual bargain of Tony Watson 3/$9M
He is still under club control for next season, so if they want him back all they have to do is tender him a contract then they go to arbitration (~3.5M)
Grandal getting a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/dodgers-qualifying-offer-yasmani-grandal.html
Hard to say. On the one hand the predictors are saying he will get like $30M in which case he should take the QO. On the other I think he is worth much more than that. If Houston signed him for $60M/4yr I would be totally ok with it. Over the last 4 seasons he’s been the 3rd most valuable catcher in the league (behind Posey and Realmuto). He shouldn’t really start to experience age related decline for another 2 years, and his bat is good enough that he should continue to have solid value as a backup or DH into his mid 30s. After Posey, Realmuto, and maybe Gary Sanchez, he’s the best offensive backstop in baseball.
His defense is bad and that's tough to swallow at the catcher position. I didn't think the Astros would be very interested in him before the qualifying offer. Now that he is getting it I don't see Luhnow even pursuing him at all. Luhnow loves his draft picks.
Another thing that caught my eye: of the top 12 leaders in total fWAR at catcher in mlb from 2016-2018, 8 of them are possibly available either in free agency or trade: 1. Realmuto- definitely available via trade 2. Posey- maybe available via trade 3. Grandal- free agent 4. Sanchez (not available) 5. Contreras (not available) 6. Molina (not available) 7. Zunino (not available) 8. Lucroy- free agent 9. Ramos- free agent 10. Perez- likely available via trade 11. Cervelli- maybe available via trade 12. Suzuki- free agent
He's also a backstop that, for all intents and purposes, was benched down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. I think he rebounded nicely this past year, but I don't think teams are going to be throwing around money as freely this offseason. We've seen that trend the last few years, and I think it will continue. I personally think $60M/4 is way too much for Grandal, but that's not to say that you will end up being right (it just takes one team to value him similarly to you). $17.9M or whatever the QO is is nothing to sneeze at, and I think you agree, as you prefaced your post by "hard to say."
I agree his defense and QO dramatically lower the odds of Houston pursuing him. But I still think he is worth more than the QO; premium offense combined with acceptable defense at catcher are rare. I think Houston will pursue Realmuto, but if they can’t get him then I think we will end up disappointed with the result, likely a signing of a 3rd tier guy (Maldonado, Weiters, Lucroy, etc.).
What if..... Marlins Derek Dietrich and J.T. Realmuto to the Astros for Package of Kyle Tucker, J.B. Bukouskas, Cional Perez, J.D. Davis, Framber Valdez and Stassi. It pretty much helps both clubs. It sucks we would have to lose Tucker but it helps both of us.
Right. If I’m his agent, I probably advise him to take the QO, because I’m leery of the potential for market collapse and the upside really isn’t there. But if I’m a GM and I need a catcher and have some payroll flexibility, I hope he declines and I’d be willing to go to $60M/4 to sign him.
if that many players are 'steals', then it either means they aren't going to go that cheap or that those prices aren't really steals.
No. I like Dietrich but he doesn’t have enough surplus value to make it worth including Tucker. I’d offer Miami 3 guys from the 2nd tier (Alvarez, Bukauskas, James, C Martin, C Perez, Beer, Nova, F Valdez), and tell them they can have a 4th if they throw in Dietrich, and they can add Stassi if they throw in a PTBNL. For me Tucker and Whitley are off the table unless you’re talking about affordable stars with 4+ years of control remaining.
Not necessarily. I think those guys are underestimating. But even if they’re not, it could just be an overcorrection of the market that leaves free agency as an undervalued way to acquire talent (which is primarily a result of the luxury tax).
Tucker, JB, and Perez might not even be enough for Realmuto by himself. I read a story that the Nationals offered a package built around Robles (higher ranked prospect than Tucker) and the Marlins said it wasn't enough.
