It's hard to know exactly because we haven't had arbitration hearings/deals yet. Even dumping all of Reddick's contract might not be enough to get under the tax threshold. Greinke and Ray are going to cost around 41 million next year. As we stand we are somewhere around 175-180ish in payroll that counts towards salary cap. It's real close if we dump Reddick's 13 million.
Even if we assume we are at the 181 mark right now, and we add 31.5 for Greinke and 6.1 for Ray, that would put us at 218.6. Take Reddick's full contract off our hands at 13 mil, and we are at 203.6 mil total. Yes, it would be close, but do-able. How much AZ would demand in prospects would be the bigger issue, I believe.
Ah, thanks, I was looking at the base salary. So we would be really close at 206.6. Take into account we still need to shed an OF--maybe Marisnick and his 1.9 mil--and we have a little room to make it work. This is all pure speculation, of course.
Indeed. However, with a possible rotation of Verlander, Cole, Ray, Greinke, McHugh, James, Valdez, Martin, Perez, Peacock and Whitley, I don't think you worry about in-season trades.
I agree. I don't see it happening. Too many good players will be available at the deadline to roll the dice on this kind of move and leave no flexibility to make improvements if players have bad performances or injuries.
Orioles just designated IF Breyvic Valera, an optionable utility guy who never strikes out; may be another player that makes sense for Houston.
Indeed. However, with a possible rotation of Verlander, Cole, Ray, Greinke, McHugh, James, Valdez, Martin, Perez and Whitley, I don't think you worry about in-season trades. I wouldn't be worried about the pen. So many of those arms could fit nicely in the pen. Yes, we could sustain an injury on offense, and Luhnow would probably prefer to go into the season with the flexibility to make a move if need be, down the line. All the same, it would check off a lot of boxes and make for an exciting rotation.
You're assuming just because they are willing to spend more, that they'd be willing to spend it on those players. The Astros aren't just going to spend because they can - they are willing to spend if they think they can get good value. They also never said they are willing to spend up to the luxury tax - all they said is that they definitely wouldn't go above that. But that doesn't mean they don't have lower cap internally in mind.
Yes, it's purely speculation, as all of these hypotheticals are. I'm just suggesting a move that might make sense and would bring a solid rotation to our team. Crane's words were that Luhnow can spend close to the max, if needed.
This is what he said: https://www.mlb.com/news/astros-owner-willing-to-add-to-payroll/c-301681402 "I'd say if the right situation came along -- certainly we're not going over [the luxury-tax threshold] -- but we could move closer to that," Crane said. "We were pretty high up in the food chain last year. A lot of teams realize the penalty is pretty severe if you go over. We'll stay within the strike zone." All he said is that they won't go over the tax threshold, but he didn't say how close he's willing to go - just "closer" than they were at the time.
I read somewhere recently that ARI wants a minimum of what SEA rec’d for Paxton I’m any deal for Ray, citing Rays’s age.
Right - so that could mean $205MM or it could mean $190MM. It's a complete non-statement. At the end of the day, I doubt they start the season anywhere close to the luxury tax level.
I agree with both you and Buck. If Luhnow thought he could have the RIGHT deal now, I think Crane would pull out the cash. Beyond that, we play the waiting game and keep our options open. Aside from Cruz--who is gone--I don't see an obvious FA signing that makes our team better and makes sense for our budget. So it's likely to be a quiet offseason until the start of Spring Training. Thus, speculative deals keep the forum alive.
