Am I the only one who looks at those numbers for Keuchel and just doesn't get it? Don't get me wrong; I love the guy, recognize his importance to this team over his career and will genuinely miss him if he's gone. But he's three years removed from his Cy Young award, he was terrible in 2016, missed huge chunks of the 2016 and 2017 seasons and was pretty wildly inconsistent last year with a 1.31 WHIP that was admittedly pretty concerning. He's never been a power guy, so at only 30 years old, his stuff should age well. But if I'm paying $20 million+ a year for a starter over 4-5 seasons, that guy had better be an ace. And I don't know that Keuchel can consistently be that guy anymore. Am I missing something?
Nathan Eovaldi, SP: He became a hero in the World Series, interestingly in Boston’s one defeat, for his ability and willingness to go long in Game 3 after pitching in Games 1 and 2. Red Sox manager Alex Cora joked that Eovaldi’s agent “might kill him,” but it appears he survived the ordeal. Expert: 4 years, $16M per, $64M. Me: 3 years, $15M per, $45M. I would try 3yrs 13m per A.J. Pollock, CF: If he could stay healthy, he might have been a nine-figure player. As things stand, he’s talented yet risky. He may be given a qualifying offer, and it’s quite possible he’d accept. Expert: 3 years, $14M per, $42M. Me: 3 years, $15M per, $45M. I would try 3yrs 10m per Andrew Miller, RP: The terrific talent was hurt by a variety of injuries in 2018. If healthy, one of the best. Expert: 2 years, $10M per, $20M. Me: 1 year, $13M. I would try 3yrs 8m per Daniel Murphy, 2B-1B: The superb hitter may have to move to first base. Expert: 2 years, $9M per, $18M. Me: 2 years, $20M. I would try 3yrs 8m per Gerardo Parra, OF: A rare Rockie who hit well in October. Expert: 1 year, $5M. Me: 1 year, $6M. I would try 3yrs with club option on final 2 for 4m per Logan Forsythe, 2B-3B: Rough year of deal. Expert: 1 year, $2 M. Me: 1 year, $1M I would try 3yr 2m per We would get depth. I understand no way we get them all but we could try. Most want that chance at a ring. Yes I try for both Pollock and Parra. POLLOCK the new CFer moving Springer to RF. Parra as the back up OFer. The number 4. Jake if he isnt moved on from. If they truly like Tucker he is the DH till he gets his swing. I get it you might like Kemp alot. But he could be very valuable in a trade. I go for Logan and Murphy. Y? Let's face it Reed, Davis, Fisher well they need to hit the highway. We need quality depth just in case of injury. Plus we could still trade for players.
We are spoiled. To us Dallas K is just another middle of the rotation starter. We have 7-8 guys that are capable starters. However to other teams, they are dying for a 200 inning 4.00 era starter..... Real aces are more than $20,000,000 a year now too.
Just give me Ramos at catcher...... Cruz or Murphy and resign Morton (if he is healthy)......... The offense will be elite and we have pitching available. If they have money left and want to throw it at someone like Andrew Miller or Robinson on a short deal, that works too. I mostly just want another middle of the line up bat and to stretch the order......... guys like Ramos, Brantly, Cruz and Murphy likely do that.
You're missing that SP salaries have gotten kind of absurd somewhere along the way: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/starting-pitcher/ $20MM per year would put him around what guys like Jeff Samardjza, Johnny Cueto, Wei-Yin Chen, and Homey Bailey make. The elite guys make $30MM+. It's all kind of ridiculous. Also makes you wonder what ridiculous amount Cole is going to cost if the Astros try to extend him.
The argument for Keuchel: 3 of the last 5 years, he's had a sub 3.00 ERA. He's shown flashes of total dominance in the not-too-distant past (pre-injury last year). He has proven upside so all it takes is one team believing they can get the best version of him. The argument against Eovaldi: He threw 110 innings this year and 120 last year. 2014 is the only year he got above 155 innings, and he's only had 2 seasons where he got above 125. He has a career ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 1.35 and hasn't shown any real trends of improvement. This year was better but not particularly stellar, outside of his crazy good playoffs. In his last 4 years, he's only had 1 season below 4.00 ERA, and that was this year at 3.8. As hard as he throws, neither his K rate nor his BAA are all that great.
I want 2 bats Ramos and Cruz would be the guys I would look at. But Pollock is really appealing to me. Upgrades defense and offense. Miller would be a must sign for me after watching the pen in the playoffs. I would go with some combination of James/Peacock/Valdez/Whitley and dont sleep on Martin in the rotation. Tell me the condition of Morton's shoulder and that makes the decision whether to bring him back easy. My strategy would be do what it takes to lengthen the lineup and go with the young guys in the rotation. If the young guys dont pan out make a trade at the deadline.
Eovaldi throws hard, but his fastball gets hit very well unless batters aren't sitting on it. This year, he threw his fastball a lot less and he was a lot better. He threw his cutter, 500% more often than his career average. Eovaldi looked good in Tampa. He looked even better in Boston as he threw his cutter even more often than Tampa had him throw it. If he was in Houston, he would throw his cutter and slider even more. Injuries would be my concern with him.
Money none of those guys would see today. Most reasonable comp... Jake Arrieta got 3 years $75 with team options for $20M the 2 following seasons. Alex Cobb got 4 years $57M (a very underappreciated SP, and I think a relative bargain despite what happened in Baltimore this year, and a low cost trade option). Yu Darvish broke the bank with 6 year $126M I think 3 for $60M or 4 for $75M is a realistic expectation for Keuchel.
Ramos is my number 1 target outside of resigning Morton if his shoulder his healthy. A possible back up plan to Ramos could be trading for Francisco Cervelli. He tied for the highest OBP and the 4th highest OPS among catchers that caught on a regular basis. Andrew Miller is a no for me. Someone is going to give him at least 10 million a year for 3 years. Astros can't afford to have the Miller from last year eating up 10 million a year. I don't see the Astros targeting Pollock. He would be a somewhat better right handed version of Reddick. Pollock's OBP isn't very good, he hasn't played more than 113 games in the last 3 seasons, and only played more than 140 games ONE time in his 7 year career.. I expect Pollock to make somewhere around 15 million per year. No thanks. I expect Tucker to be starting in LF opening day. If Morton isn't healthy, retires, or signs elsewhere I would look at trading for Kyle Gibson. He will be on his last year of arbitration for around 8 million, put up similar numbers to Keuchel last year, and threw 196 innings. Then let McHugh, Peacock, James, Whitley, JB, Valdez, etc fight it out for the last 2 rotation spots ( or one spot if McCullers is healthy).
I'll pass. Unless the Astros believe there is something they can do mechanically to unlock him, I have no real interest.
The question on a lot of these guys is what there contract length will be. I have read some say that Ramos will get a one year deal, if that is the case, there is a really strong chance he is in Houston or Washington. He has defensive issues but his bat is legitimate. There is a lot of talk of Yasmani Grandal only getting s 3/45 deal. At those rates, they are appealing options. Miller wasn't the same pitcher last year and at some point you have to think he will break down. Mostly I have seen him expected to get a 1 year deal in the 12-14 million dollar range. If that is the case, and the Astros have money left I don't mind them spending it here if they have addressed their offensive issues. Yeah I don't think Pollock is the type of bat the Astros need. I could see them signing him if they can get him at a good deal on a one year contract. I don't see that happening though. He can play CF which will appeal to a number of teams. He is the perfect CF for a team with strong offensive corner outfielders.... that isn't us. I don't even guess who they target anymore for their "projects". The Astros have moved away from spin rates a little as everyone else has caught on. Same with pitch selection (which the Astros relied on with Cole and Morton). I am sure there will be something else new. For the 5th spot in the rotation I am not overly worried. Address the line up, firm it up so that it is one of the 3-5 best in baseball and rely on the pitching talent with have. Extending the line up and health will impact the offense a great deal. Just better catching and DH/1st production will make a massive difference.
Astros declined their option on Will Harris. Doesn’t really mean anything though, since he will still be arb eligible and not a free agent. He projects to get $3.5M in arbitration, so the move saves $2M. I consider Harris an excellent value at $3.5M and contrary to some opinions, I expect him to be on Houston’s opening day roster.
If Arrieta is your best comp I don't see how you can put his value so far below Arrieta's @ 25m/year. You've got Keuchel at 5m less per season. If anything, he's worth more as a lefty and a 3 time gold glover. Like Arrieta, he's been good in the postseason and won a ring. Someone is going to give him a 4 or 5 year contract in the range of $25m/yr or more. I think he's worth that. The Astros have a lot of options at SP, but I don't think it's going to be as easy to replicate what Keuchel can bring as people think. He's a solid #2, eats innings, pitched in big games and is only 30. The rotation next year after Verlander and Cole is really up for grabs.
Because Keuchel's stuff is lesser. Because Keuchel hasn't been as good. They aren't exactly the same. He want a #2 guy last year or in 2016.
Why limiting it to mechanically? Just pitch location and pitch usage changes will likely continue the unlocking process. Astros able to add a little spin to his fastball and he's lights out.
That will be figured into his price and his anticipated production. He very well could be solid or even #2 starter quality next year but I can’t see the Astros spending the money it will take unless they think there is another serious bump next year too.
I know 1 of you, maybe some of you wanted him at the deadline but would you go after Whit Merrifield? Royals might trade him but won't be easy to get/multiple teams could be interested. What would a Salvy Perez /Merrifield package cost? Royals might consider trading Perez as well.
Wonder what it would take to get Salvador Perez. KC is clearly rebuilding so he’s going to be available. His BAA really dropped last year, but the rest of his stats were solid. Best buds with Altuve, too. I wonder what Luhnow has up his sleeve...
