I think Tucker will provide more overall value over the course of his next contract, but I don’t see any scenario in which the Astros are willing to make the type of offer in number of years it will take to get it done. With that assumption, a Valdez extension would be my #1A and Bregman would be my #1B. 200 innings at a sub 3.0 era is really difficult to replace. If 6 years at ~170 is what it takes to resign Bregman, I’d be disappointed if he’s playing somewhere else. If it takes 8 years or 200M+ then he should play elsewhere. The Astros need another infield bat even with Bregman and losing Bregman means they need two. With Meyers and Chas in the OF and Pena at SS, they can’t have light hitting at 1B and 3B.
I don’t see any Astros players ripe for extension. If Yainer Diaz were open to a Cristian Javier type of contract then I’d do that, but I doubt he is. If Hunter Brown would do something for like $75M/6yrs to buy out 2 FA seasons then I’d do that. But again I don’t think he’s open to something like that.
Hayes signed a very team friendy, early extension. No way a cheap team like the Pirates trade him. Paredes just got traded to the Cubs who are looking to compete. No way they trade him before they decide they are out of it next season. McMahon is a favorite of Rockies ownership, who run the organization like a fantasy team. The Rockies never trade favorites regardless of whether it helps them or is the smart move. Moncada is an option, but underwhelming. I actually think the Astros could get Brett Baty in a trade from the Mets. He is a former top prospect ( Mets #2 and #21 overall in 2023) and has improved all aspects of his performance each year. Vientos took the 3b job but I think he's poised for a breakout.
The thing is if we sign Kikuchi to a reasonable contract, that means we can trade some of pitchers at the deadline for prospects to teams looking to make the playoffs. Think of what we paid for Kikuchi for a couple of months.
Hunter Brown in 8 appearances in his postseason career has an ERA of 1.65. Safe to say he has it in the big stage. https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/hunter-brown-playoffs-stats I was hoping to see Spaghetti make an appearance to see what he's got. Not gonna know until next year.
I would be disappointed if 2 years and 30 extra million is all that kept us from getting Bregman. The guy already makes $30 million a year. It's not like we are adding additional payroll. Seven years from now a guy on the level of Jake Meyers will be making $15 million a year with the way salaries are escalating. I hope two years at 15 per doesn't keep us from getting Bregman. We have the answer at first in my opinion in Dezenzo. We can't be trying to trot out two unknowns in the infield and expecting things to play out in our favor. I think they have to resign Bregman at all costs.
It was funny how confident guys on 790, Altuve, and Chandler Rome sounded about Bregman's return. I think Alex decided he was gone before '24 started. He sold his local home and his walk up song had a departure connotation. The great pitching staff will keep the window open a few more years but we need a good offseason. Replace Bregman and add a good OF player. A new 1B would be great, but we can make due better there without an upgrade before an OF.
Fair points, but the cubs top prospect is a 3B. They could DH him but the potential value of Framber in their rotation could entice them. As you say they are trying to win now. Does a Matt Shaw help them more than Framber? Hayes is hurt a lot and played awful this year. Dubon was a better player. His long term money is fair considering he misses a lot of time and can't hit much. His OPS this year in 96 games was lower or equal to Maldonado's last 3 seasons in Houston. You're picking him up as a gamble he's more like 2023 and not 2021, 2022, or 2024. His career OPS is .698 with an OPS+ of 92. His glove makes up for it some. He's basically a worse version of Jeremy Pena. McMahon probably is well liked, but he's just a guy. These aren't allstar level players here. When you're willing to move a top 5 starter in the AL you can get these types of guys. I don't mind Baty if they like his tape and metrics. Just depends on cost.
Astros won the season series vs every ALWC round team, and every team that advanced except San Diego.
The thing I like about Baty is his improvement in 2024 over 2023. ( K% 28-24.6%, BB% 6.5-9.4%, wRC+ 66-83, defense slightly below avg - good) 2025 will be his age 25 season and those things tell me he is starting to adjust to MLB and is "getting it". He has 4 more seasons of control and will likely be reasonably cheap since the NY teams like star power over unproven guys, and Vientos entrenched himself as a starter this year.
It was intended to be an or - I wouldn’t go 6 years at 200M and I expect 8 years would be more than 200M. If Bregman is willing to sign an Othani like deal with nearly all the money deferred then I’ll have no problems with any length deal. I don’t think that’s realistic.
Bottomline, no easy fix for the Astros. They are fenced in by their "bad" contracts. The dynasty has ended, and now they are just another team that is struggling to make a "showing." Playoffs are not in their immediate future. The Astros don't have the brightest and best running the show.
Bad contracts can be and usually are an issue once you get past the prime player control years. Player control over most of their superstars was a big reason for the Astros success. The Astros could add some patchwork for next year for one more run, but then it’s time for another 5 year plan.
I went to a bunch of games down the stretch including two games against the Mariners and the 2nd playoff game. His walk up song never changed from “Set it Off” by Lil Boosie.
Their GM has a short but great track record when you analyze just the moves that were his. Abreu, Montero, and Hader deals were led by Crane. Dana Brown went for Caratini (good deal), Kikuchi (the best deadline trade in the league), and a bunch of undiscovered bullpen arms (Scott, Ort, etc. great deals). The early returns on his drafts and player development are also overwhelmingly positive. Now, those bad contracts (Abreu, Montero, McCullers) are still on the books, and nothing will stop Crane from getting involved and making another bad big dollar signing. But if Dana Brown is allowed to make all the decisions related to building the roster, I am optimistic. The Astros have ~$40M to spend for 2025 and need 1-2 really good players and another 1-2 decent players in order to be a true contender. It’s doable.
The Astros have no intention to trade Valdez or Tucker. The Astros are looking at ways to move some contracts to get more payroll flexibility - they will do that regardless of what happens with Bregman. Pressly, Caratini, Dubon have been mentioned as trade candidates - and Urquidy released. The Astros believe that they can trade a young pitcher more easily than Melton or Matthews.
