I am not at all scared of him at $10M/yr for his age 36 and 37 seasons if he signs for that low of a total number. At this rate Framber with a standard year will be looking for something like $170M/5yrs in free agency with a chance to get more; I wouldn’t want Houston involved at that price. If he’s effective at 31 then the risk of him falling apart at 34 is pretty low imho, and at $130M total if you get 12 fwar out of him from age 32-34 then the rest of the contract is gravy.
If you are talking about $130M for 5 yrs, the CBT number is $26M in each year, even if you structure it so it's only $10M in the last season it counts as $26M.
Yes, I know. If you’re looking at $110M/4yrs (27.5 AAV) vs $130M/6yrs (26 AAV) then the AAV difference in years 1-4 is marginal. But those last 2 years at $10M would be very easy to trade if needed to accommodate some CBT implications (because the acquiring team would only inherit the $10M AAV).
Holy **** that lineup is awful, even if McCormick returns to the player he was in 2023. Singleton and Meyers have no place on a championship team. If Pena was the worst hitter in the lineup, that would be a good lineup.
Singleton is a very good hitter against RHP, but unplayable against LHP. Meyers is a good hitter against LHP, but a very bad hitter against RHP. Pena is an elite hitter against LHP, but a bad hitter against RHP, McCormick in his good years, was elite against LHP but average against RHP. Those guys all have a place on a contending roster, but they have to be mixed and matched properly. As it is Houston’s lineup might be the best in the league against LHP, but that’s only 20-30% of the games. Their lineup against RHP projects to be very average or below average unless they add 2 hitters who crush righties. Vs RHP: 2B Altuve excellent RF Tucker excellent DH Alvarez excellent 3B TBD C Diaz good 1B Singleton good CF McCormick average LF Trammell average SS Pena bad vs LHP 2B Altuve excellent SS Pena excellent DH Alvarez excellent RF Tucker excellent 3B TBD LF McCormick excellent C Diaz good CF Meyers good 1B Hummel bad
I acknowledge Singleton is very playable vs RHP. However 2 things bother me about him. 1) He is not a run producer. Even when his wRC+/OPS+ is excellent vs RHP, he isn't hitting the HR from a guy who smokes the ball like he does. He does not get the ball in the air. He is better at getting on base than driving people in. 2) from opening day until September 1st, a roster only has 13 players. That leaves 3 bench spots after the backup catcher. It's really tough to dedicate 1 of those spots to a guy who can't cover 100% of 1 position or play multiple positions. Add in the fact that Meyers, McCormick, and Dubon ( also Pena but he still plays) are weak vs RHP, then you don't have enough bench spots available to make your team good vs both RHP and LHP. Edit: I just looked up Jon's GB and FB numbers and now I'm confused. How can a guy with those numbers who hits the ball that hard, hit so few HR?
I personally think Singleton had some bad fly ball luck last season and left a handful of homers on the warning track. I don’t have the deep stat analysis to back that up, it’s just my eyes telling me, along with the surface stats that show he hits the ball hard and in the air. Singleton is a good player as part of a platoon or as a lefthanded bench bat. He by himself is not the problem. The problem (as you highlight in item 2 above) is that Houston also has 3 other incomplete players (McCormick, Pena, Meyers) slotted for “everyday” roles along with a gaping hole at 3B. If Houston adds complete players in CF/LF and 3B, Singleton is a great answer at 1B for 350-450 pa.
They have already internally discussed the possibility of trading a young team controlled pitcher for a position player under similar circumstances. They have discussed signing a free agent or two veteran that they can work on maximizing or extending Valdez.
I would not count on a repeat of Singleton's success against righties. Last year he had like a 780 OPS against righties last year if I remember correctly. However, he did not have that same level of success in 2023 and hasn't always in the past. The Astros just need to do everything possible to move on from relying on Singleton at this point. If there is no choice and they want to platoon him with someone like Wisdom, that is better than nothing - but that is about it. There is a large number of first base options available on the market. The Yankees are bullish on Walker, so the Astros may not get him, but there are literally a half dozen other guys available in free agency or on the trade market.
Sign Kikuchi, Heaney, and Neris. Trade Arrighetti, Caratini, and Meyers for Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe and a PTBNL. Trade Pressly for a lotto prospect. Boom, done. 2B Altuve 3B Diaz DH Alvarez RF Tucker LF Lowe C Diaz 1B Singleton/Whitcomb SS Pena CF McCormick Bench: Dubon, Salazar, Trammell Rotation: Framber, Brown, Kikuchi, Heaney, Garcia, McCullers Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Neris, Scott, Ort, Dubin, Whitley
I would love for the 2025 Astros to have a better 1b than Singleton. That said, 70% of starting pitchers in MLB are RH and 30% are LH. I have confidence that Jon won't embarrass himself vs a RH even if he never reaches 2024 levels again. I can't say the same vs LHP eventhough he was previously better vs them. As for Meyers, Pena, and McCormick - As I said, 70% of SP are RH. If I hear Dana Brown and the Astros talking about 1b being a priority over 3b and run production vs RHP in Lf/Cf as an Astro fan, I an frustrated and worried.
Launch angle sucks. Under 13% last year. Better angle in 2023 but worse results overall, so it may be an approach change. But his swing isn't conducive to lots of homers.
Jon still doesn't have a lot of MLB at bats plus he was out of the league for a decade. I think he is still a work in progress and still learning and improving. .780 vs RHP is good but I think it was over .800 the 2nd half of the season (too lazy to look it up). Maybe the Astros are looking at that trend as a positive for next season.
Yeah, the ground balls and shallow fly balls were frustrating. Hopefully, an adjustment is made. Based on a few towering moonshots, it seems that there is an untapped (or under tapped) elite level power source hidden in there somewhere. Jon is a patient hitter too. Has a good eye.
Singleton is playable against right handed pitchers. His defense still sucks regardless. And I would certainly stop well short of saying he's really good against right handers. He also stinks against what baseball reference considers power pitvhers. .447 ops vs power pitchers and .776 vs finesse pitchers. He can't play any other defensive positions. He can't pinch run. He just isn't a good fit for most major league teams
True, but there's no way the Stros are winning a championship with Singleton getting that many AB's. He's a bench bat and should never be getting regular AB's and this doesn't even take into account that he's a poor fielder.
I could certainly get on board with trading Arrighetti if they could get a young ascending possible star level everyday player for him. I certainly wouldn't sell low on Arrighetti. Say Kjerstad for Arrighetti. Trade for Robert/Lowe and call it a day. Go with Dezenzo at 3B and sign a cheap guy like Urshela as a backup plan if Dezenzo doesn't workout. Otherwise, bring back Bregs, trade for Kjerstad and Lowe.
