I have been a fellow hater of an Arenado transaction but at this point I'm neutral on it. I do think he's a rapidly declining old bat. I would like them to spend the money, if they are going to spend, in a trade for a veteran SP or a bat that will contribute. But I keep seeing posts about the possibility that terrible journeymen like Guillorme and Rodgers might start at 2B. Arenado is no longer a GOOD bat, but these guys are actively BAD. A mid bat for 2025 is an improvement, letting us start Paredes at 2B. He wouldn't be taking the spot of a prospect, he'd be taking the spot of these minor league contract scrubs we are contemplating. Contending teams aren't starting bad minor league contract vets in their lineup. It feels like we are not serious about contending this season if we cut $35m in payroll year to year with the holes left on the roster. An Arenado move to me would look like they are at least trying. I don't think he's the best addition to the team, but I'd take Arenado over doing nothing.
Yes...we have 3 positions with guys who may not be a viable starters, but at least they come with a low price tag. I don't "hate" the idea of Arenado on the team. I hate the idea of us getting to midseason and possibly looking at another abysmal bat who we still owe millions to.
As I have said, I am pretty neutral on an Arenado I think there is a very good chance that he is a 3+ WAR player in 2025 and helps this team win. But I think his playing time would r****d the potential breakthrough of a guy like Dezenzo. And I think that will be needed in 2026 and/or 2027 what Arenado is not a 3+ WAR player.
The real question is do we have anyone in the minors that the front office sees as being able to play 3B? Whitcomb- Brown thinks he is an OF Dezenzo- maybe but mixed opinions on his position (OF and 1B mentioned most). Smith- might outgrow the position (RF and 1B mentioned) Matthews- seems that 2B, SS (my hope), or CF are his likely positions. If they don't think any of those are going to happen at 3B then bringing in NA isn't impeding anyone and is certainly better than having to start Guerllimo, Rogers, or even Dubon at 2B. Also, if you wanted to rest him and or platoon him (sit against lhp), you still have the option to play Paredes at 3rd in those situations, with Altuve at 2B, and someone like McCormick in left. Which is still better than the three mentioned above. Can't look at it like NA is a replacement for Paredes, Altuve, Bregman, Dezenzo, or Smith, but a replacement for Guerllimo, Rogers, or Dubon.
Arenado feels like high potential to become Jose Abreu part deux, but also feels like the kind of swing for the fences move a cap-strapped franchise might make when faced with a lineup including McCormick, Meyers, and Peña after the 6-spot. But can’t shake the feeling that the people optimistic about this possible course of action will be the first lining up outside Daikin w/ pitchforks and hangman nooses if a new Abreu manifests
He is still a top 3 defensive third baseman and while he is bat is mediocre, it was better in the second half of last season after some adjustments. Astros also think some of it is mechanical. I don’t think he is a great hitter but he was still overall a good player last year. If the Cards eat close to half his salary, I think it is worth it for the Astros… an infield defense of Arenado/Pena/Paredes/Walker is also the best in baseball. It isn’t ideal - but several smart baseball people want him and as long as Brown wants to make the deal - I’ll support it.
I think the key for me is how much of the contract the Cards eat. So long as we're only paying half of his deal, it's worth the risk.
No ****. The Cards want to move on from Arenado. The GM of the Cardinals has been told to move off money to rebuild and Arenado is the only guy with a no trade interested in waiving it. So the Cardinals want to save about $10,000,000 a year on the Arenado contract. Crane is telling Brown to win now and the future and Brown doesn’t want to be handcuffed long term with a Bregman like deal. Arenado is only going to be around $10,000,000 a year and can still do some positive things. The Arenado situation hinges on Arenado waiving his NTC. If he does that a deal will get done. I would be really excited about the defense on the infield and while the Astros outfield arms would be blah but the Astros would cover ground out there and Chas is a bounce back candidate.
From what I have been told, Brown is really careful about handing out long term deals or commitments to older players. He was against increasing the offer to Bregman to the level needed to sign him. He was critical of the Abreu deal pointing out he wasn’t the GM that did that deal… so he appears to realize money doesn’t grow on trees. The fact he supports getting Arenado makes me feel a little more at ease about the amount the Astros agree to pay him.
If Houston adds Arenado and is going with an everyday OF of McCormick/Meyers/Altuve, I wouldn’t mind seeing Leon make the roster as a 13th man for his OF arm to come in during the rare situations where a weak arm in the OF might cost the game. He’d also hold value as a pinch runner. Of course, both Gamel and Dubon have above average arms.
The Astros situation is interesting because they did make and keep a competitive offer out there for Bregman. They did sign Walker as well… but they also dealt Pressly wanting to spend that money on other players and that hasn’t happened… they dealt Tucker but held onto Framber and turned down a couple teams interested in Hader. So, IDK… I could argue moving Pressly would allow them to afford Arenado in 2025 and Walker replaces Bregman’s salary in 25-27. I actually would like the Arenado deal more if the Astros had one more bat in the line up. Maybe the Astros sandwich Arenado in the 2 hole and see if that helps him - assuming a deal is worked out. Altuve Arenado Alvarez Diaz Walker Paredes McCormick Pena Meyers
Man, that's a very RH hitting lineup. I'm hoping Gamel hits well and plays 100-110 games in RF this yr.
I definitely feel this season depends on Chas turning it around or one the young guys showing something. I think Chas being decent has the highest chance of happening. I also think if we look like we can contend, Crane would swing for the fences if a impact rental presents itself.
Like I said before, it’s about the defense… I was hoping Houston was going to be able to land an OF bat, but I think the market was too high. I trust Dana Brown on this. This team can win the division if everything works out. The OF is concerning, but maybe Chas can bounce back. I think the team making Yordan the everyday DH is going to solve a lot of problems.
I'm not on the Arenado train, but I do assume the Astros have more analytical data than the fans and that they have more of a reason to believe he'll be useful than just "hoping". It's not always going to work because humans are not entirely predictable - Abreu, as you mentioned. Even if you thought Abreu was going to decline, straight from "pretty good" to "worst in baseball" would be a stretch just based on regular aging. But on the flipside, you have Kikuchi who everyone thought was a ridiculous trade but the Astros saw something fans didn't. I doubt the Astros ever make trades or signings just based on hope.
They dealt Press at a time after the rest of the free agent market was largely gone. It was really Bregs at that point, or a trade. Setting a public market at 6/156 and never moving an inch was an interesting choice. It set a baseline for an auction that helped the player but probably not the team. The protracted bidding war was never going to favor us imo when our bid stayed the same. I think Arenado works if we can get real production out of the OF. Chas or Dezenzo or whoever has to be above-average. We need good luck with health of our bats, and production at. 4 spots in the rotation. None of these are extraordinary asks, but the combination is a lot to hope for.
Kikuchi was a ridiculous trade because the team was not strong enough to justify spending for a post season in which they had no chance to be competitive. The prospects spent in that trade where wasted.
People confuse actual results with what a reasonable range of expectations should have been. It’s rather dumb. Playoff baseball is a coinflip and then everyone reads something into the results afterwards when so much of it is randomness.
