At the time of the draft there was no question that Janek was the best catcher in the draft. It was not close. After only a few weeks here Janek is a top 3 prospect In the Astros system. He is the current #1 by my reckoning. I personally I am under no illusions about success rates among prospects but Janek is the best shot at it we have had in years. His potential is in no way related to Diaz or his ability to become a decent catcher.
Of course it changes the line up and impacts the line up greatly because you are drastically downgrading your offense at catcher and not really upgrading your offense at first base. You also are not going to be good defensively at 1st base. Caratini and Salazar behind the plate and Diaz at first gives you at best mediocre production at two spots…. Keeping Diaz behind the plate and signing someone like Walker or trading for someone like Mountcastle, OHearn or Kjerstad improves the offense and likely defense at first base. If you end up with Walker, you MASSIVELY upgrade the offense. There is hesitation because it down grades the Astros offensively and defensively and locks in mediocre production at two spots - when the other option is very good production between 1st and C. The Astros already may have to live with mediocrity at 3rd and possibly CF - they don’t need it at 1st and C as well. This Astros team in 2024 had too many poor hitters in the line up.
No - there was not a clear cut #1 catcher headed into the draft, there were three catchers all in the same class and teams varied on which one they liked the most and the gulf between the three was viewed by teams in general was small. There is a reason why he was drafted where he was drafted. If he hits - he will be a good big leaguer and starting catcher, if he doesn’t - then he will be traded or be a mediocre big leaguer. He certainly isn’t as good a prospect as Matthews at this point. Is there a world where he becomes an 800 OPS catcher and makes all star games? Yes - but there are also a lot of worlds where he is a poor hitter and is a back up l.
You are presuming that sophomore Diaz is the Diaz we get going forward. Diaz really knows how to hit. He hit with more projection his rookie season. I bet he works on his trajectory this off-season and becomes a consistent 40 hr guy in the near future. I’m not in favor of moving Diaz to first unless we get a good offensive catcher in the next few years. Maybe it’s Janet, maybe it’s somebody else.
I already listed Bench and Posada and as I wrote, they hit worse in Sept/October than other months. The others don't/didn't have a wRC+ of 120 or better, do I don't view their bats as truly special. Merely good. Catchers wear down. If a team relies on the bat of a player in September, it is best if that player is not a catcher and crucial that the player is still young. If a team wants a player to have a truly special bat into his 30s, move him off of catcher. I keep making my point and you keep throwing unrelated crap against a wall, trying to show otherwise.
We can have a discussion about giving Diaz days off - and down the road we can discuss moving Diaz off catching, but there is no real reason to do so now - and with how the arbitration/FA system works, the Astros really may not be concerned about how beat up he will be in 7-8 years from now. Right now he just turned 26 years old, without a lot of mileage and basically as a rookie, he hit 299. I don't see them moving him off catcher any time soon.
This is where I am at too. I am not in favor of moving Diaz off of catcher in 2025, and at this time he looks like the catcher in 2026 too. He is still young enough that there shouldn't he any regression due to playing the position. My point has always been about Diaz's career as a whole, and what to expect long term. If the Astros want to extend him and expect him to have an All Star level bat throughout his career, he should eventually move off of catcher. If they feel the bat isn't special enough unless he's at catcher or plan to let him walk after arbitration then none of it matters. Unless Diaz can turn himself into Johnny Bench with the glove, he will eventually move off of catcher or have a shorter career. And he will struggle late in seasons. History shows this. None of that matters to the Astros unless he is still in the organization into his 30s.
The discussion about Diaz two offseasons ago was that he preferred not to catch. He was immature for not just playing where they wanted him to. And, to his credit, he's played and excelled as our starting catcher. But my thought at the time was, perhaps Diaz wanted to be able to hit well long-term and catchers drop off with the bat. From an Astros perspective though, they can certainly use him up, then drop him if he's mid by the time he hits FA. They get his best years at a steep discount, and he hits free agency as a catcher over the age of 30. Sucks for him, good for the team.
I think there will eventually be some form of medium reached - but it isn't likely to be reached in 2025 or 2026. The Astros have a window closing, and they are going to try to patch it up for next year - and having Diaz as the catcher in 2025 lets them cover for other positions that may not be as strong.
They do wear down in 8-10 years. If you find a guy that can catch and hit you've found gold. No reason to throw that gold in the trash. My problem with your theory is, did you watch Diaz play 1B last year? He's a terrible 1st baseman.
For now, Diaz’s health beyond 2028 is not of any concern to the Astros, because he will be a free agent at that point. And it’s very unlikely he starts to break down before then. So Houston should extract as much value out of him as possible, and that means playing him at C where his offense carries a much higher premium than at 1B. Now that he’s proven to be adequate defensively, talk of the Astros moving him off of catcher is silly. Now, if he signs a long term extension with Houston that would change the calculus but that is very unlikely.
I agree about him at 1b. And Yordan and Altuve are both locked up for 4+ more years and both should play extensively at DH. And furthermore, moving Yainer weakens the run production from the catching position. He's not butchering the run prevention so it's currently an advantage. I agree that for the immediate future Yainer needs to be a catcher. All I have been saying is that IF his bat is special, it probably won't stay that way if he is still a catcher in 5-6 years. And Yainer's glove isn't special enough for him to remain a starting catcher in MLB with an average bat.
I guess where we disagree is that I believe Diaz is a slightly above avg catcher and since this was his 1st year to be the starting catcher I believe he's got a lot of room to improve defensively. Particularly if they develop the electronic strike zone. His bat is special for a catcher, his bat is slightly above avg for a 1st baseman.
I understand that Diaz is a terrible defensive 1B (granted, I think he showed some mobility that he could get to just being bad). I get in a context-neutral valuation that Diaz is more suited to play catcher. That said, Caratini is a better defensive catcher than Diaz and is only making $6M. Giving Caratini 75% of the catching reps and Diaz 25% with Diaz getting about 70% of the 1B reps probably isn't a bad solution for 1B and doesn't add to the payroll. If the Astros can trade Caratini for someone really good and get other team to pay that someone's salary (or at least enough that the Astros are paying $6M or less), sure keeping Diaz away from 1B is a wise move.
Agreed. If Yainer can continue to improve his catching (anything that allows him to move on from framing helps) then that is an additional option - his bat regresses but he is good enough at catcher that it doesn't matter. Also, let's not forget the last time the Astros moved a catcher based on the potential future it worked out pretty well, but they had to give up Lofton trying to fill that vacancy ( shudder). I just remembered Cliff Johnson. As an Astro he was before my time, but his hitting numbers sure were scary. If he had any catching chops at all he is a good comparison to Diaz. Anyone remember?
Cliff Johnson was a terrible catcher. Diaz is light years better as a defensive catcher than Cliff Johnson was. If there was the DH rule during Cliff's days he would've made millions. The man could hit, but was a butcher regardless of where you put him in the field.
If by “immediate future” you mean 5 or 6 more years. In that case, he is the catcher of the future for the Astros. We all agree. (Except for the Dusty/Maldy lovers)
Hard to make an argument for Meyers over Varsho, but it's still nice recognition from around the league to be in the final 3. Bregs has a pretty strong case, but I bet Ramirez wins it. The GG awards still have their flaws, but it's miles better than the absolute joke it used to be.
These are the 3 I expected, and feel deserved nominations. I think Dubon and Bregman could (should) win. The only case I can see for Jake over Varsho is that he had less than 700 innings and only started 76 games in CF. But that's a better argument to prevent him being nominated that winning it.
