I may have to disagree with one aspect. How much of Pressly's attitude on the closer promotion filtered into the rest of the bullpen? All it takes is one disgruntled person to create a toxic atmosphere where others feel they can't be themselves in. I do think that the Cubs are looking at Pressly because they feel they can get him cheaply. They would want the Astros to pay some of the salary or get him without giving up anything really in return. Astros have already shown that they want to slash payroll so this may be a certified dump to free up payroll only and not a true talent grab.
Yeah Pressly is not going to bring back a meaningful prospect; it’s a salary dump. For one thing it remains to be seen if Pressly will require anything financially in order to waive his NTC. But the realistic best case scenario is that Houston is able to rid themselves of Pressly’s full contract and maybe get a lotto has-been or never-was pitching prospect. Thats not to say it’s a bad idea; if Houston is able to flip Pressly with the net being to add a good OF bat, it’s worth it.
Hypothetically... All {I'm talking up, down, AND side to side} things considered - Bregman or Profar?
A 2-3 year deal would be fine. He’s not going to fall off a cliff physicallly. But he has been inconsistent enough that he has a lot of risk outside age related decline.
I'd rather see what we have and rotate through AAAA guys. I want to sign an amazing outfielder, but i don't think they are out there.
Profar doesn’t strike out even when he’s not hitting well, so he offers a high floor relative to whoever Houston will run out in LF without an addition.
What if the Astros pay a good portion of Pressly's salary? I assume that cash doesn't count against the CBT for Houston. Maybe if the Cubs are getting Pressley for a bargain (net) price, we could get a better prospect out of Chicago.
I think the Astros want to use Pressly's money on an OF such that paying a portion of his salary for a prospect defeats the purpose. Also, I am pretty sure the cash would count towards the Astros CBT.
Cash a team pays counts toward the CBT. The only reason Houston is shopping Pressly is because they need to free up money to address the hole in their OF/lineup. (I guess a secondary reason would be that they are trying to get rid of a disgruntled player, but that’s secondary to adding an OF.)
Profar put up -1.6 fWAR in 2023 while amassing over 500 PA. Literally the worst out of 1457 players. Almost twice as bad as Maldonado, who ranked 1442. That is the exact opposite of a high floor.
Meh. The vast majority of that was negative defensive value which is a questionable metric. He still posted a .321 OBP that year with a good walk rate and very low k rate. .321 OBP would have been good for 5th best on the team last year (min 200 pa).
His defensive numbers using bWAR (different set of numbers) also suck. He's a bad defensive player. Every defensive metric says so. And those OBP numbers are meh, to me. He was playing his games at Coors Field - the park effect increases hits and decreases strikeouts on an annual basis. The Rockies cut him in late August. I'd rather give time to Pedro Leon (who is probably bad, but may surprise) than waste time with Profar.
I’m not a huge supporter of Profar. He has been a very mixed bag in his career. But hes the best available fit for Houston to improve their offensive projections. And his defensive limitations will be somewhat mitigated by Daikin Parks small LF and the presence of good defensive OF on the bench who can sub in when needed. It is very unlikely that any OF in the upper levels of Houston’s system will put up a better season in their career than Profar had in 2024. For a reasonable cost it’s worth seeing if he can repeat it.
Those were career numbers at age 31. He's not repeating them. If the Padres thought he would, you'd think they would find a way to give him the three year contract he's asking for. Me, I wouldn't commit to a multi-year contract for a 32yo player who is a minus on the field and doesn't hit consistently. I don't want to pay the going rate for last year's performance if I don't think he has a chance to repeat it.
I don’t think any team is offering Profar money based on his 2024 performance; if that were the case he’d have already signed. Like I said, I’m not some huge proponent of Houston signing him, but for the right price, he represent the best free agent available that can likely improve their lineup.
Profar has played for 4 teams in his career and he's been below average on three of them. His projected numbers just don't move the needle enough to spend money, when we've got internal candidates who can put up similar. Other than Bregman or Alonso, I don't think there are any hitters left in free agency who move the needle. I think if we are getting help in the lineup next season, it's going to come from the trade market. I'm hoping Dana Brown can come up with something creative.
You say stuff but I don’t think you’re actually doing any work to validate it. Profar projects for a ~.250/.360/.410 slash line, ~116 wRC+, and ~2 fwar. There’s no internal option that projects for anything close to that. Those projections take into account his up and down performance. That puts him firmly as a player who would project as Houston’s 6th best hitter (behind Alvarez, Altuve, Diaz, Walker, and Paredes) and WELL above Meyers, McCormick, Dezenzo, Melton, Dubon, Trammell, etc. I think you’d probably agree that if he would sign for something like $5M/1yr then he’d be a good add given his displayed ceiling and projections. And I certainly agree that paying him big money (>$50M total commitment) isn’t a great idea given the risks he brings. So we are talking about a gray area between those 2 things where he’d be a good value or not. It’s hard to judge until we see what he signs for.
I feel Profar is the right amount of risk to take when we're still paying J.Abreu's and Montero's contract. 2 years max I would go.
