Dubon plays all over the infield and plays OF too. He’s worth his salary for that reason alone. Limited roster spots and need someone to backup every position.
Yep, you don’t want to see Whitcomb or Dezenzo or Leon or whoever else would be in the mix playing 20-30 games at SS, much less more if Pena were to get hurt. Dubon is important to the 2025 team.
He has been a great value for the price. Now he's a good value for the price. That said, he is absolutely needed on this ( and most) rosters.
Have you seen what salaries are doing? 5 mil a year for him is great. Pre-arb dollars for him was a straight up steal.
I have asked that question before - when I still had hope for Kessinger and Whitcomb at SS. But that time has passed. The Astros apparently have a new philosophy of moving every prospect to the OF as soon as they conquer AAA and are ready to try MLB. That makes Dubon even more valuable to the Astros, despite his riding salary. Maybe they should offer him 5 yrs / $45M?
Figure the next 4 years for Diaz is likely going to be about 30M in salary if things go well. 3/45 on top of that to make it 7/75 to take him into about 32 years old? That seems like a fair deal to me for both sides. Generational wealth for Diaz, guaranteed right now- the Astros get 100% of his prime and late prime….
I'd rather trade Peña than Dubon. Would get a lot more and Dubon could play short in a reasonably similar way to Peña. Bastidas can be the utility guy. The Tucker move was not enough to change the course we are on. Another move or two needs to happen with an eye to the future while still maintaining a solid present.
On paper Pena should be very valuable; a 3 war player at the premium position just entering his first year of arbitration. But what would Peña’s market be? He’s not going to a rebuilding team. He doesn’t have value at 2B or 3B. He’s not displacing Witt, Henderson, Seager, Lindor, De La Cruz, Betts, Correa, Bichette, Swanson, Adames, Volpe, or Bogaerts. The Tigers and Red Sox are the only 2 teams that seem to make any sense for a Pena trade, but they both have expensive players they’d have to move/cut first (Story and Baez).
I think $30M is way too high. Willson Contreras got $20.8 over his 3 arbitration years and that the most as a catcher I have been able to find, So I think $22-$24M is absolute max which puts him at no more than $25M over the next 4 years. That said, I would still go to 7/$75 and maybe $77 to make it an even $11 per season. I would really like to see extended now while the value is there. The problem is that it would be a huge salary hike in 2025 and the Astros are crying poor. That probably means it has to wait until next offseason where it becomes 6/$75 instead.
Current fangraphs projected WAR (by most projected playing time) Rangers: 45.0 Astros: 44.7 Mariners: 41.2 Angels: 35.2 A's: 33.3 Position players: Astros: 28.7 Rangers: 28.2 Mariners: 25.6 Angels: 23.4 A's: 22.6 Pitching: Rangers: 16.8 Astros 16.0 Mariners: 15.6 Angels: 11.8 A's: 10.7 4 starting infielders: Astros: 14.1 Rangers: 13.1 Angels: 9.5 A's: 8.6 Mariners: 7.6 3 starting OF: Mariners: 10.6 Angels: 7.3 Ranger: 7.1 A's: 6.9 Astros: 3.4 Top 6 in rotation: Rangers: 14.0 Mariners: 13.4 Astros: 11.9 Angels: 9.6 A's: 7.7 Bullpen: Astros: 4.1 A's: 3.1 Rangers: 2.8 Mariners: 2.2 Angels: 2.2
I think they’re underrating our SP significantly. And projecting 5.2 WAR from DeGrom is crazy work. Last time he put up that figure was 2019. That said, based on this alone, you would be crazy to deal Framber if you want to compete in 2025. Without him our staff would be below the Angels on here, if you want to believe these projections.
Framber is tough to project going forward. He has definitely been solid during the regular season with a few expected lulls over the past 3-4 seasons. The issue is the playoffs. He was great in '20 and '22 playoffs when his strikeout rate was better than his traditional averages and he could avoid the HR. In '21 and '24 he couldn't strike out anyone, and in '23 he was allowing too many HR's. Yes, he will face better hitters in the playoffs and better scouting. But the inconsistency of his results make him seem like a very good pitcher who sometimes gets hot as opposed to the dependable ace you basically never have to worry about in big games. On top of that, would the 'Stros actually be able to get someone better than him? Probably not.
No way Astros get anyone better than him as a SP. The question is: Can they get an OF that is more of an improvement over the currently projected 3rd best starter ( Trammell) than the reduction in the rotation?
Teoscar Hernandez back to the Dodgers for $66M/3yrs. Passan saying there’s some deferred money and a 4th year option but no details to know what the AAV actually is. Fair deal. I would have been ok with Houston signing him to that contract although I’m also fine that they didn’t. I really want Houston to sign Jason Heyward plus make a trade for a really good lefthanded bat.
Yep, the Torres and Hernandez contracts serve as evidence the market is turning. We’ll see if that ends up being the case but if so it bodes well for Houston to get a decent deal on one of Verdugo/Winker/Heyward (I still don’t see Houston splurging for Santander).
