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[Official] Astros Off-Season Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Oct 31, 2019.

  1. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    That's not entirely true. The Padres gave Hosmer, Myers, and Machado big deals. The Brewers paid Yellich a big contract to go along with Braun and Cain. The Rockies gave Arenando a massive deal. The Marlins gave Stanton that massive deal. Detroit had a big payroll when they were contending. It is more cyclical for small/medium market teams and then you have the really small markets like the Rays, Royals, Pirates, etc that never have the resources and the owner just pockets a nice profit every year off revenue sharing.
     
  2. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    Contending teams spend... non-contending teams spend when they feel they’re about to contend (as the Padres are with their farm system starting to blossom, and the Brewers are now).

    Using the Marlins and Detroit (when they were chasing it) as an example is exactly why non-contending teams aren’t really spending anymore.

    It’s not just big market vs. small market... some big markets are also choosing not to spend. Also the Royals spent some during their contending years (Alex Gordon still there). As did the Pirates. The Rays have never spent mainly because of their stadium/attendance situation.
     
  3. CinematicFusion

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    Who is the best free agent this season?
     
  4. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    Catcher and Ump would be the main concern. Droplets drop, and they're crouched down right there.
     
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  5. CinematicFusion

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    Agree. If Springer has another great season this year (60 games) "George Springer was the leading AL Most Valuable Player candidate after his first 48 games last season, slashing .308/.389/.643 17Hrs in 216 plate appearances. " I'm sure he would ask for 7 years 22-30 million per.

    Mookie Betts is playing until 40 under his new contract. I'm sure Springer's Agent will ask for same thing.

    Mookie Betts is getting 30 million a year for 12 years.
    5 years 25-30 million per for Springer is a strong posibiity if he has a great season this year. Springer will be the number one free agent.
     
  6. CinematicFusion

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    If Carlos Correa is healthy in 2020,2021...look for a similar contract as Betts. Correa will be 27 as a free agent. 10-13 year contract at 30 million per if he can stay on the field and be the elite SS when healthy.
     
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  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Prediction: the Angels will sign Carlos Correa.
     
  8. sealclubber1016

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    Not really his fault this season, but the fact is that Correa has played 6 seasons and will only have played in over 110 MLB games once. With a likely strike looming, he probably won't be able to play a full season next year either, even if he manages to stay healthy.

    Honestly if I were Correa I would be willing to give away a free agent year at this point. Given his proven health issues he needed to display full season dominance these last 2 years to move himself into the 300 million club. Now due to circumstances beyond his control, he won't even have the chance to do that and I can't for the life of me see somebody taking a 300 million dollar risk on him without extended full season proof.

    His ability isn't in question, never has been.
     
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Interesting thought for Correa to be open to a 1 year deal in 2022. He’d still only be 28, and with 2 potential full seasons of healthy baseball and 3 season injury free (assuming he doesn’t get hurt this season), he could indeed set himself up to match or even eclipse Betts. But it would have to be a big payday for that year; something like $30M guaranteed with another in $10M incentives for games played and another in $10M incentives for stats/awards (and maybe a $30M player option for the following year in case he gets hurt). A 7 war season is worth $50-80M, so he shouldn’t give that up without breaking the single season salary record.
     
  10. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Mookie Betts is an outlier. It’s not often that a player of his caliber at an age as young as he is (he turns 28 in October) is available for all 30 teams to sign on the open market. He has a strong case for being the second-best player in MLB behind Mike Trout, who also didn’t reach free agency before signing his two extensions with the Angels.

    So in reality, that Betts landed a 12-year, $365-million mega extension with the Dodgers amid a pandemic and mere months from free agency speaks more to his rare combination of talent and youth than anything else. It might not be a sign of a stronger-than-expected market for the upcoming free agent class. It might just be Betts was so coveted that he would’ve gotten paid like this either way.

    Still, Betts being off the board for the coming offseason does impact George Springer and the Astros. The question is to what extent?

    Betts and Springer would have been in different tiers of free-agent players – Betts would’ve been in a tier of his own – but Springer is now the undisputed best outfielder in the 2020-21 free-agent class. The Astros center fielder looks in line to be one of the two best players available overall, with Phillies catcher J.T Realmuto being his competition atop the class. A’s shortstop Marcus Semien and Yankees second baseman DJ LeMahieu highlight the rest of the position player crop.

    Unlike Betts, Springer, Realmuto, Semien and LeMahieu will each be 30 or older at the start of the 2021 season. Realmuto is the youngest of the four; he will turn 30 in March. Semien turns 30 in September, and LeMahieu just turned 32.

    Springer will be 31 in September, meaning that he’s three years older than Betts. (They were both part of the loaded 2011 draft, but Springer was drafted out of college and Betts turned pro out of high school.) Springer debuted for the Astros in April 2014 and has racked up 25.4 WAR entering the 2020 season, according to Baseball-Reference. Betts debuted for the Red Sox in June 2014 and arrived at Opening Day 2020 with a career 41.8 WAR.

    Clearly, the Dodgers are betting on Betts aging really well. With Springer, teams will have to weigh the same question. He’s an elite player who is coming off a career year that might’ve had him in the 2019 AL MVP Award conversation if not for a hamstring strain that cost him almost a month. But as a free agent he will also be on the wrong side of 30 in an era when data-driven front offices are averse to paying for past performance.

    A five-year deal would take Springer through his age-35 season. He likely would’ve gotten at least that contract length if he had been a free agent last offseason, which he would have been had the Astros not manipulated his service time before his call-up to the majors in 2014. Now he’s facing a lot more uncertainty, as teams reckon with their financial losses in the wake of the pandemic. Jim Crane has said that because of the Astros’ financial success the previous few years he thinks they will be in a strong position to be aggressive. But the Astros owner also said last November the team would make a run at Gerrit Cole ahead of an offseason in which it spent relatively little.

    This much is clear: addressing the outfield will have to be first-year general manager James Click’s top priority after the 2020 season. In addition to Springer, left fielder Michael Brantley and right fielder Josh Reddick will also be free agents. Not counting Yordan Alvarez, who is primarily a designated hitter, Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw are the only other outfielders on the Astros’ 40-man roster. If they don’t re-sign Springer, they’ll have to sign one of the other free-agent outfielders – Marcel Osuna, Joc Pederson, Jackie Bradley Jr., Brantley and Mark Canha are the best of the rest in the outfield class – or rebuild the position group via the trade market.

    Betts’ extension does eliminate the Dodgers as a potential suitor for Springer and takes off the board a player whose free agency might’ve held up Springer’s market. Perhaps it is a reminder that the high-payroll teams, like the Astros have been since 2017, will still pay for top talent in free agency. But the obvious supply and demand implications aside – one fewer elite outfielder will be on the market, one fewer team will be in the market for an outfielder – it’s quite possible the Betts’ contract actually means little for Springer.
     
  11. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    Fully agree

    And, as much as I love Correa, if I’m about to commit 300 million plus to a SS after 2021, I’m probably on the phone with Lindors agent
     
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  12. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

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    I agree with a lot of this article

    But bringing up the fact that we didn’t spend much this offseason as an indication that we won’t spend next offseason is stupid

    If we couldn’t sign Cole, there was no other true Ace to give big money to, and we don’t have holes elsewhere right now

    But even more important is the fact that a big spend this past offseason would have meant it was much LESS likely we would be able to sign Springer

    Would be interesting to know what they have already offered him to extend
     
  13. donkeypunch

    donkeypunch Contributing Member

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    Best ****ing tweet of 2020. Not subtle **** yous to the warranted ones.

     
    Handles, Uprising, Nippystix and 4 others like this.
  14. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    R.I.P. Off-season Thread
     
  15. desihooper

    desihooper Contributing Member
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    Shut.It.Down!

    Go 'stros!!
     
  16. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member

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    Cole was going to sign with the Yankees regardless if Houston offered something close to what he was offered. That's why winning the 2019 World Series was so crucial and especially when the whole outfield are FAs after this season.

    I know Crane stated he would spend money but I agree with you. Just because he didnt spend this offseason doesn't mean he won't this upcoming season. He also had to deal with the fallout of the scandal and it did have an impact on their offseason.

    Switching gears to Springer, I hope he has a monster 60 game season. The guy deserves it and I think Crane will do everything he can to re-sign him. Either way, the Astros will have to spend this offseason with so many holes going into 2021.
     
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  17. msn

    msn Member

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    Opening Day, baby!!!

    Lock this ****. Good frickin riddance.
     
  18. msn

    msn Member

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    Worst.

    Off-season.

    Ever.

    Good freaking riddance.
     
    htwnbandit likes this.
  19. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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