Making a statement like this has no endpoint, though. Losing 3 top prospects could hurt, but Luhnow can restock. Same with losing 4, or 5, or the entire farm. Clearly, there's a point at which it's too much for an "already successful MLB pitcher". Just because we can recover doesn't mean it's the right direction to take--still have to evaluate at what point it's too much. Lofton + Santana + Abreu would be too much.
Good thing we have a gm who knows how to understand what's the right amount of risk and where that line is. What in Luhnow's tenure and past experience has told anyone that he doesn't know where that point is?
I am convinced the SP staff is going to fall short as its currently constructed. So we have decide if we are all in or not. If we are, we do whats necessary to get help. If we dont do this, then we are still in a rebuild mentality. I dont know how well a depleted farm can be rebuilt. But you still address the problem in front of you before a possible problem later.
What teams lately have gone all in and won the World Series? Cubs have basically been like the Astros except got lucky Astros drafted Appel and have more money. Astros appear to be modeled after Cardinals. SF won 3 WS because they didn't go all in that first year. Royals...don't recall them going all in. That said, I think Astros trade for Quintana which is a departure of what I thought a few months back (really expected big market teams to take all the SP in a limited market). I don't think it will be an "all in" deal. Astros want to keep near-MLB talent, and want to trade lower level guys besides Tucker. CWS want near-MLB talent, and do not want lower level guys besides Tucker. I suspect Astros have offered more expected WAR than other teams (I don't think many teams can touch Astros depth), but other teams have offered more near-MLB expected WAR.
The Shields trade prior to the Royals' run of success was an all in type of trade. Royals also gave up a decent chunk of their farm for rentals of Cueto and Zobrist the year they actually won the title.
I don't think there is any possibIlity at all of Houston acquiring Quintana without giving up at least one of Tucker or Martes. And I have a really hard time seeing a deal get done without both. If they are able to get a deal done without sending both, to me it will be a fantastic deal for Houston regardless of what other minor league prospects they include.
Cueto and Zobrist trades did not involve 1 prospect in the Tucker, Martes, and Musgrove range. Shields trade was pretty big though as it wiped out their top two prospects at the time (3 years before World Series), but that still only one guy that was in the Tucker, Martes, and Musgrove range at time of deal. I see almost no chance Astros include both Tucker and Martes without CWS kicking in something else. Think Astros would just elsewhere (I do not believe the Astros offer in the Gammons Archer rumor). The Astros likely would include 1 of Martes or Tucker if it is only way a deal gets done, but I am not sure Astros will do something that simple without exhausting all other options. If Astros were to get Quintana, I'm not sure they would want to keep McHugh and his arbitration raises as a 4th starter that would hardly be used in the playoffs. I would expect Astros could get something decent for him that they could add to Whitley and Perez as just one option that would improve Astros in 2017 and the near future.
Jake Marisnick and Bregman just did a live Instagram. They're so funny; seem like real good buddies too
Still kind of held out hope that we'd re-sign Val. I think what he was doing pre-injury last season is a sign of things to come. Oh well. Good for the Angels. They're getting a very solid defensive player who's likely to hit 25-30 hr.
Sucks to see these guys signing in the AL west where they can really hurt Houston (Gomez in Dallas, Valbuena in LA). Even the other guys they've lost still ended up in the AL (Rasmus in Tampa, Castro in Minny).
I'm bummed to see LA and Oakland making acquisitions to stay competitive. It really would have been nice to see them rebuild to give Houston an easier path to the division. Looking at the rosters in the AL West, it may be the toughest division in baseball. The A's are by far the weakest team, but even they don't have any glaring weaknesses; their problem is a lack of star power and reliance on a few unproven players. But they still project for 30+ fWAR, which puts them in the 70-80 win range. The Mariners, Angels, and Rangers all profile as Wild Card contenders at worst, and I don't see a glaring weakness on any of those rosters either. The good news is that Houston is still the easy favorite to win the division, but the gap isn't as wide as I'd like. Taking that into account makes me hope Houston bites the bullet to acquire Quintana (or Archer, or Gray). They need to further distance themselves from the Mariners and Angels. Martes and Tucker are great prospects, but they can be replaced (see Franklin Perez and Gilberto Celestino).
I hate statements like these. Astros have Perez and Celestino regardless if they trade Martes and Tucker. I highly doubt Perez will be ready to be a bullpen arm in the playoffs this year like Martes probably will. Odds are not good that Celestino reaches elite prospect status like Tucker and that he is likely to be an Astro by the playoffs 2018. Now, Celstino and Perez...they won't be in majors for a long while provided no setbacks. If these guys are viewed as "replace"ments for Tucker and Martes....they can be "replace"ments in a trade instead of Tucker and Martes. Not saying I wouldn't trade one of Tucker/Martes in a package for Quintana, but Martes and Tucker should not be viewed as guys that will prop up the farm system for a distant future that need replacing. These guys will be out of the farm system in a year and half at most one way or another (Martes probably in less than a half year) or they will viewed in a much more negative light than they are now. Astros have more than enough talent to get a TOR starter with or without Martes or Tucker. I'm just not sure Astros are willing to deal what CWS wants and may need to make a trade to convert what they have to get what CWS wants (my guess is a top 50 AA or AAA bat along with quality depth from Astros).
The quantity and type of prospects in the system certainly impacts the strategy in trades, as it should. If the system was barren outside of Martes/Tucker, then Houston should be more reluctant to part with them. But if Luhnow feels good about the quality and depth of prospects coming up behind those top guys, then he should obviously feel more comfortable dealing Martes/Tucker in order to improve in the short term. And Perez/Celestino couldn't serve as replacements in a trade because they are too far away and/or currently undervalued by other teams. I think expecting Martes to contribute in any meaningful way this season is a little optimistic; how many teams plan to depend on rookies down the stretch? I'm also skeptical of Tucker being ready by Sept 2018; not only is he starting this season in High A, but again, how many teams think it's a good idea to plug in a rookie outfielder in a September playoff chase?
Personally, I don't want an "easier" path. If the Astros are going to be WS contenders, then they have to earn it against good teams.
As far as I am concerned, they can eek into the playoffs with a 86-76 record - predominantly against the dregs of baseball - and then get through the playoffs and win the World Series.
