I'm not really worried about the Correa situation. I think Houston is a big enough market where if we're winning, something will be done between him and the team to keep him. Or it will take an outlandish offer to lure him away that reasonable people understand the Astros for not matching.
Make nothing of it. The alternative would be to go back and forth and have him turn down offers that aren't high enough for him. Not a big deal really. More of a negotiating ploy...they're saying, don't come to us with an offer unless it involves #'s just as high as we'd get in free agency. When the time comes, I bet he'd still be willing to discuss a deal going into his final year of arbitration like pretty much every player.
Tuve is probably telling all the young guys to bet on themselves. Meanwhile, no one can hear Singleton in Corpus Corpus mumbling "take the money dummy".
That Jon Heyman wrote the article, turning a mostly innocuous situation into an excuse to bash the Astros (Singleton!) and troll their fans (will they keep a player... who is five years away from free agency.)
This makes absolutely no sense: Word is they offered somewhere around $565,000 and were perhaps willing to go a bit higher, but Correa wasn’t going to put his name to something he didn’t believe in, his friends say. I find it hard to believe Houston offered him a multi-year deal for less than $600,000/year.
My interpretation is that the Astros were going to renew him for the year at that slightly higher number and got a "why bother" response and then just gave him the minimum again. It probably had nothing to do with the extension. It does seem stupid to offer an extra $30k to a guy who signed a $5m rookie contract and has probably hundreds of thousands if not millions in endorsements. That's not enticing or rewarding in any meaningful way.
I'm already on record here saying that, if I had to put money on it, I'd bet against the idea that he will sign with the Astros after his first contract expires. We'll see.
This. It is also quite possible that it won't be in the Astros best interest to sign him to the size of contract he may demand on the open market.
I'd agree with this possibility. But if the contract is "reasonable" (whatever that means in the market 4-5 years from now), I believe he'll sign with them and that they'll offer it to him. Granted, so many things that aren't just about him will happen earlier that will be huge factors (Altuve, Springer, and team success especially).
If it happens, it'll be *after* the 2021 season (or, 2/3 of the way through it, at least - when he's dealt at the deadline). Since that's five full seasons away, I'd like to recommend that we agree to not borrow trouble and enjoy the ride. There are worst things* than getting to watch a potential elite shortstop develop over the course of nearly seven full seasons... * Yes, I realize one of those "worst things" is watching said shortstop spend his prime in another team's laundry but.......
There's a good possibility Correa signs for $400 million. That's a tough pill to swallow for an owner that would optimally like to have a mid-market payroll.
Correa, McCullers, Springer, and Keuchel are all but guaranteed to wait until free agency and sign elsewhere. If projections hold, Correa will get $400M and the other 3 will get $150M+ each if not more. Houston can't stomach those numbers. Altuve is the one core player who we can hope signs long term. He's certainly going to get paid, and he may even demand a premium from Houston since he may resent his current deal. But if he continues his current performance he will be a hall of fame caliber player. He is the heart and soul of the franchise. There is extra incentive for Houston to sign him vs other teams. Counting on the Astros to retain Correa or be able to replace him from within is foolish. Which is why everyone needs to recognize that Houston's best chance at a championship is between now and 2020 and it may not be this good again any time in the next 20 years.
On a year to year basis, between now and 2021 will be the best chance for Astros to win for a while. That said, Luhnow only burns down the farm in 2020-2021 if he sucks it up from now until then. He is going to try to have another club controlled core forming by then with a ton of money to spend if Correa leaves.
Correa, Bregman, Tucker, and McCullers were the result of picking very high in the draft (and having extra picks). Luhnow won't have that luxury again unless something goes terribly wrong. Best he can hope is to find players the caliber of Springer and Keuchel. The odds of unearthing another Altuve or Correa are close to nil. They need to make hay now.
I don't see have great young players cost controlled players with Correa during his arb years as detrimental to making hay as it sould allow Astros to keep some guys or get free agents. Astros already have some potential high ceiling guys like Bregman, Tucker that will likely be around after 2021. At least half of them will be nothing and definitely not likely a Correa. That said, Luhnow is likely going to have a great team around Correa in 2021 that isn't old and costly. I do find this post odd as you want to trade away from the likely last chance for high end draft talent in another thread, but then say Astros basically are doomed because they no longer can get high end draft talent on this thread.
Not overly worried about losing Correa. He isn't as good as Trout or Harper. I would far rather sign several key players.
Correa still represents the youngest of the current core, has the highest ceiling, and is expected to have the longest career expectancy. If you're going to go all out for anybody, it would probably have to be him (let alone, "face of the franchise" implications). He's still expected to exceed the production of similar players at his young age. But again, they have awhile to figure it out.
Trout went through the same thing, and later signed an extension. Rarely do players ever get significant raises when teams have little motivation to. If players don't like it, they should do something about it when the next CBA comes up to help the next generation of players.
Nope. I want them to make the most of these years where they have a cheap, elite core of players, because once the Altuve-Correa years are over, odds of a ring go down dramatically. On the other thread I posit that the farm system is deep and will likely produce a steady stream of major league players even if they make a few win-now trades. But producing a stream of major league players (guys like Reed, Fisher, Stubbs, etc.) doesn't mean there's an Altuve or a Correa on the way. There's not. Luhnow and Elias will keep the farm good enough to keep from fielding crummy teams, but those teams won't be contenders in the way the Altuve-Correa teams will be. The model they hope to copy is the Cardinals. But I think in the looming era of large market teams undergoing massive rebuilds and more elite players reaching free agency, the Cardinals model will prove ultimately unsuccessful and they'll be perennial also-rans. The only way for small and mid-market teams to win it all is to do what Houston has done, AND maximize the talent during the window.
