Just curious, does Hinch just allow players to do what they feel in a game? I mean I understand that if a runner gets a killer lead and feels 90% sure he will steal 3rd as Altuve did but overall it seems like the inmates are running the asylum. Gomez trying to bunt with 2 strikes, players admiring fly balls, etc...
If you go beyond the run scoring tables, and look at batting position and run scoring, it gets more interesting. The data on runs scored, by position in the batting order, would suggest that bunting with a man on second and 0 outs has improved run scoring odds typically for the 1st batter in a lineup bunting (2%), 2nd batter (8%) , 8th batter (5%) , and 9th batter (8%) in the AL. So the data actually does demonstrate that Altuve should swing away, but if say Springer had been at bat a bunt would have been statistically advisable.
Of note, here are all the of times when statistical evidence supports bunting by your position in the batting order: League, Batting order position, Men on Base, probability of run swinging, probability of run bunting. A 1 x-- .458 .476 A 1 -x- .662 .681 A 1 xx- .658 .766 A 2 -x- .665 .736 A 2 xx- .678 .757 A 5 x-- .405 .405 A 6 xx- .604 .686 A 7 xx- .602 .715 A 8 x-- .393 .421 A 8 -x- .593 .664 A 8 xx- .608 .714 A 9 x-- .423 .454 A 9 -x- .624 .708 A 9 xx- .624 .703
These stats say a #3 nor Cleanup should bunt? Of course, but a broken clock........ Luis' HR chart was shown on a broadcast the other day. All hits were pulled to RF... plus one lonely HR to left-center.
Yep. Nobody batting 3rd or 4th should bunt based on a century of mlb data. It doesn't mean it won't work, it just means that of course it has less chance of working than swinging away, and a lot of that has to do with the quality of batters after the bunt takes place, which is what this breakdown essentially wanted to look at.
I don't know about the group, but I would've been pissed even w/a successful sac bunt attempt. I was last week when he started bunting, and I was again today..regardless of the outcome. The only outcome that would've changed my perception would've been a bunt single--and even then I'd have been slightly peeved, but muted. (I say this knowing I was actually muted today...but it was because I was in a car all day, and doing my best to watch the game on my phone when reception allowed me to.)
I would have still been upset with Altuve getting a bunt single. Runner on second and no outs score on any single. He has to be up there thinking that thought. Maybe I am over thinking the importance of scoring that run, but was I the only one thinking Hinch should have put in a pinch runner to increase the odds of scoring on a single in front of an outfielder?
They already used Marisnick. I suspect Worth isn't much faster than Marwin. Although the bunt was a bad idea, a bunt single would have a fine result because they would have had an extra out to play with.
Valbuena much more so than Rasmus. Google "[player] spray chart" and click on the fangraphs link. Switch the chart on the left from hang time to hit type if ya wanna.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here's how the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> will line up for the series finale in Seattle. <a href="https://t.co/wJ6jOZdSTK">pic.twitter.com/wJ6jOZdSTK</a></p>— Houston Astros (@astros) <a href="https://twitter.com/astros/status/754726370467459073">July 17, 2016</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Today could be difficult. SEA's starter, Montgomery, threw 4 perfect relief innings against us two weeks ago. He started a game (replacing Feliz) before All-Star break and pitched very well against KC. Astros have their work cut out if they avoid losing this series. Hopefully our guys hustle on the bases and play smart.
And the revenge is still sought, penance starts again <iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/t7zk4as9kzA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
