So he’s in 11th percentile of actual batting value but baseball savant has his expected wOba as 32nd percentile. His quality has a hitter has been subpar but he’s also been unlucky. Hes probably a bad hitter right now not a terrible one. His hard hit rate, barrel percentage, average exit velo, sweet spot percentage and bat speed are all good to excellent (62-84th percentile). Hes had some bad luck, but mainly he’s a bad hitter because his k percentage is 12th percentile. his chase percentage is fine (55th percentile) but he’s swinging and missing too much and taking too many strikes. Hes never been great at contact but hits the ball hard enough that he’s been fine, but it’s slipped to the point that hes basically unplayable. can he fix this? dunno. Bat speed is still there and he still hits the ball hard enough to be good if he could cut down on his strikeout.
He needs to be moved down into the bottom 3 of the lineup until he has a 100+ pa stretch of good production. Let Meyers, Diaz, and Smith all hit in front of him, as they are all doing more with their at bats than he is. I personally don’t think he’s cooked (I think he’ll be a slightly lesser version of the guy he was from 2021-2024) but he’s been bad enough that it’s time to stop babying him and move him down.
Now if y'all want to see a truly "unlucky" hitter so far this season...go check out Yainer's statcast page.
I think we are all pleasantly surprised that the Astros are in first place in their division, without Yordan and starting pitcher injuries.
I mean- I don't think anyone necessarily expected this of Cam. I might have expected more- but that would have been unreasonable. I also think Caratini is performing above expectations. Even if you want to say- he's only playing like he did last year, last year was a career year and I don't know that anyone should have expected him to be as good this year with even more AB's.
One things for sure, for as much as has gone wrong so far this season, things are going better than they were at this point last season. If Houston gets their aging/injured hitters (Walker, Altuve, Yordan) going and gets/keeps their SP healthy, this team could be special even without adding any impact players at the deadline.
Agreed, and I view it as the Astros are a 1st place team who will likely add the two highest-impact players at the deadline at precisely the highest places of need -- left-handed hitter and MOR starter(s) with Yordan and Wisneski. Then Javier, Garcia and whatever tehy do at the deadline would be found money. I really believe we can catch the Yankees or Tigers and get where we REALLY need to be with a top-2 seed.
Adding Yordan and possibly Javier for the 2nd half, for free, is pretty damn good. So go get O'Hearn and a cheap #5 SP to help keep the rotation from exhausting themselves in September.
Since the division is literal dog **** right now, and they do have the potential to somehow get a comfortable lead in it, they'll probably think hard about what they can do to let Framber and Hunter get some load managed rest (and not have the bullpen running on fumes as a result). Biggest regret the front office had for 2019 was letting JV make every start... even with the division well in hand. He wore down in the playoffs.... likely expedited his TJ surgery (or that bullshit short rest appearance in Tampa did), and probably hurt them most in 2021 as a result. Then again, the year of rest allowed him to win the CYA in 2022 (and ultimately the WS)... so perhaps everything evens out.
I sure hope they don’t do this. The division doesn’t matter much - top-2 matters. Having one fewer series essentially doubles the title odds. I’m still for being smart in the season, but the division should not enter into the thinking as long as we’re easily in wild card position.
If they're able to make up the 5-6 games on Detroit/NYY.... and then make up an additional 5-6 games to feel comfortable... then they could do this. I don't think they will make up that much ground as I'm fully expecting the pitching to regress if 3/5's of their rotation can't go past 5.... until they get Spencer back and/or one more piece.
I think the opposite - the path to the break is easy and reinforcements will arrive after. I think we go on a tear. But my point is that, if I’m wrong then the decision is whether we are close to top-2. If so, we should fight like hell. If not, rest and coast to wild card or division. Which of those it is doesn’t really matter.
Perhaps. will know more after the next Astros lull. Easy to forecast dreams when the team is on a hot stretch and playing some bad teams upcoming.
Unlike most, I think our starting pitching is an issue. We have Framber and Brown and very few that can regularly go more than 5 innings. We need a number 3 type of pitcher than can go 6-7 innings regularly. I think we will have some major kinks in our bullpen if we keep overworking them. I think it is much more important than another bat, although that would be great. Getting Alvarez back and Walker warming up will be a major upgrade to our lineup. I fully expect Pena to keep it up, and Diaz to wake up. I think we have a really good shot this year if we get another starter than regularly eat innnings with a decent ERA.
They'll probably be able to hold steady till Arrighetti comes back... but that's also presuming that Hunter Brown's last 2 outings with spotty command don't continue. I echoed your statement in one of the other threads (framber?).... I expect a pitching regression soon and that will likely have them losing some games in the short term.
