Daryl Morey has become a pretty popular figure among Rockets fans for his new-age, statistical approach to GMing along with some of his early accomplishments using that approach. By all accounts, Ed Wade is at the exact opposite of the spectrum. He is more similar to Isiah Thomas than Daryl Morey when it comes to how he makes decisions, aside from having more experience. He is widely considered to be a dinosaur in his field, unwilling to embrace statistics the way that his peers do in the one sport where statistical-based decision-making is the norm as opposed to the exception. People will point out that Billy Beane didn't win any championships. Well, his mentor did and the A's lost their edge once all of baseball fully embraced sabermetrics and the high revenue teams could use that methodology in addition to spending more money. Early on, the A's were producing teams with incredible win per dollar ratios. Now, I'm not saying that you have to be a number-cruncher to be a good baseball GM but it does seem like one of those "get with the times" types of things when it comes to Wade. I don't know how numbers are used when it comes to scouting, esp. in a sport where it's so hard to predict talent, but I have to believe that they are used to some extent and it does worry me that the same person who signed Kaz Matsui, Oscar Villarreal, Pedro Feliz and Brandon Lyons is in charge of rebuilding the most dilapidated farm system in baseball. We need the right guy leading the way more than any other organization. Fortunately, the majority of scouting is done by people other than Wade. If nothing else, he has hired some good scouting people both here and in Philadelphia. As long as he and McLane don't get in the way, they should be able to do their jobs over time. My guess though is that McLane will sell the team in the next few years as he watches the big club sink to the cellar and constantly hears from media and fans about how he allowed the farm system to fall into its current state. If he does in fact choose to sell, the new ownership may want to make a lot of changes, including bringing in a different GM. Wade may end up having a pretty short tenure in Houston.
Those teams you mentioned are built on great starting pitching so it is not important for them to spend much money on relief. Wandy Rodriguez probably would not even be the Yankees 5th starter, with Oswalt maybe their 3rd. Same goes with Cardinals. I am not defending Wade moves but he was sent to a team with no farm system while having over age vets some in which he signed. I don't remember which players Wade had to start with but I am sure it wasn't fabulous.
Dam Brooks lol, I know this team sucks but I am trying to find reasons to watch these guys. I am not going to try and justify my optimism with numbers because it just won't add up but if I assume they will lose 100 i'll drive myself mad. Baseball is weird so I'll sit back and hope for competitive ball regardless of how crappy we may look on paper. Side note - why would the Giants call up Posey when Molina is destroying everything insight and I think they lead the league in run differential? Towles/Q are HORRIBLE, Castro couldn't possibly do worse, could he?
The concept is good if you get good players this way. And one I personally would be quite happy with. I do believe that because we are not a sexy team for FAs, we cannot lure the best here. So in theory, I'm cool with the strategy. The problem I have is with the person identifying the players. I don't really want to single out Lyons. it's more like the culmulation of all the crap he's brought in over the years, including Moeller last year who's paid like 3 mil for relief this year.
That decision to resign Molina occurred before he had a good start to the season. What makes Molina valuable is his catching skills. He's tremendously overrated as a hitter. He is one of the biggest hackers in modern history and is obviously slower than molasses. Based on what I've read, there are at least two reasons for resigning Molina and waiting to bring up Posey: 1. Unlike Castro, Posey is ready to hit at the major league level. Catching is a very different story, especially since he was converted to catcher only a few years ago. Posey needs as much seasoning in that area as possible before he can start catching for pitchers like Lincecum and Cain on a regular basis. 2. If they wait until later in the season to call him up, they can postpone his free agency until 2016. So, while he gets more much needed seasoning behind the plate, he will also stay cheaper and under club control for more years. Posey will probably be up this season but he is also a far, far better hitting prospect than Castro. Castro hasn't had an extra base hit in 30-something plate appearances this season at Round Rock and has shown no power since leaving Lancaster for Corpus last season. Lancaster is known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of minor league baseball and leads to grossly inflated numbers. Not to mention, if I'm not mistaken, Castro is also a converted infielder and will need as much seasoning as he can get to call games and field his position at the next level. Castro isn't ready, offensively or defensively. Posey is at least ready, offensively.
Nothing like a good few posts from Brooksball to bring you down to a wrist slitting thud into Earth after a series win in Chicago.
Completely agree with everything you pointed out HOWEVER these are two different situations. Molina, while overrated and over paid, is hitting the cover off the ball and while he continues to do so whats the point of bringing up Posey for the two reasons you pointed out? I've seen Castro's numbers at RR and to say I am not a little concerned would be a lie but while the Giants should be competing for the playoffs, we should be competing for 3 or 4th place. In my initial optimistic post I used the words ideal 7th hitter for a reason, the guy probably isn't ready but on this team there isn't a Molina to hold him up. I am sure you've seen Towles/Q's stats and I can not fathom Castro performing any worse while believing in on the field training. To be fair, if Towles had started off strong I'd rather just leave him at RR but our catching situation is stinkyyyyyyyyyy, why not give him a try and see what happens?
The discussion went like this... 1. You seemed to think that there was a reasonable chance that we would see Castro playing with the Astros in 2010. 2. In response, I suggested that Castro probably won't see significant time with the Astros this season and brought up Posey, a superior converted infielder catching prospect, as a reference point. 3. You talked about how there is no reason to call up Posey with Molina crushing the ball. 4. In response, I tried to explain that when they made the decision to sign Molina before the season even started, that determined where Posey would play to start 2010. At the time, they had no idea how Molina would hit to start the season and that decision was all that mattered in determining Posey's immediate future, including to this day. The signing of Molina, in and of itself, signaled that they a) wanted to extend their control over Posey while b) allowing him to get more seasoning at a very difficult position. Molina could go on an 0-for-100 slump and they still probably wouldn't call up Posey. Not calling up Posey has next to nothing to do with Molina's hot start. So, you're right, Molina is crushing the ball and Posey won't get called up this early in this season. Those are both facts but they are mutually exclusive facts. On a side note, keep watching Molina's numbers. He is going to have a massive free fall over the next several weeks. The guy is nearly 36-years-old and has a career OBP of .309, which is worse than that of Brad Ausmus. His career OPS is .728 which is well below average, even for catchers who have the lowest average OPS of all position players. He hasn't suddenly improved at this stage of his career. In short, Molina is due for the mother of all corrections. I read that Molina has a heavily incentive-laden contract so, once Posey hits the date where they have him locked up until 2016 and they feel that he's ready to handle work behind the plate at this level, they will bring him up to the big leagues. By then, Molina will almost assuredly be back to his hacking ways so they won't need to worry about shutting down a hot bat.
Agreed on the "above average" part, but none of those guys are above average. You can get those guys at minimum wage if you want. I disagree - I think those contracts (as long as you only have a few) are actually not as big a problem as all the money spent on scrub-level players. I'd argue that all the holes on our team are a result of the Lyon's of the world as opposed to the big 3. Though I do agree that last year, when it was the Big 5 (Valverde, Tejada), that was very restrictive. Agreed - ideally, the Astros would consistently spend the $5MM on players with youth/upside, as opposed to Pedro Feliz/etc. But I'd argue that Ed Wade's biggest problem is that he does spend the money on scrubs. If given the choice, I'd rather have a Berkman than Lyon/Matsui/Feliz, though there are certainly better options than either.
I wouldn't go that far. Bengie's OPS is about league average. For all catchers with 300 PA, in 2009, Bengie was 16th out of 29. In 2008, he was 9th out of 28. In 2007, he was 14th out of 30. In 2006, he was 10th out of 28. In 2005, he was 7th out of 27. He's basically an extremely consistent, league-average or slightly-above-average catcher. He doesn't get on base much, but he hits for above-average power, and about half the teams in the league would be happy to have him.
I didn't disagree with you on Posey, I actually agree on most of your points, but I think you are using Posey as a parallel to Castro and I disagree with that. Castro should be up by May because 1) There isn't a catcher ahead of him to block his progress whether it be because of performance or contract 2) The team isn't in contention so why give him ABs vs triple A pitching when you could do that in the show vs the big boys? I will also point out that Molina will slump of course but the dude signed a 1 yr 4.5 million dollar salary so my only disagreement in your observation is that money is the main reason Posey isn't up yet, if Molina goes in the toilet then Posey will be up sooner then later. Saying that, I would KILL for a catcher who could hit .265avg 20hrs 80rbis and 25 doubles while playing above avg defensively even if he has a mediocre OPS.
Salary argument directly contradicts that. The team isn't in contention, so why start Castro's arb clock unnecessarily? He can certainly develop for another season in the minors, so why not give it to him, call him up in May-June 2011 (enough to delay his clock), and have him under club control until 2017?
They called up Pence in mid-May? I guess I need to lookup the deadline for callups and if it's in May or June that's fine but I don't like when clubs hold off on prospects because it saves them money for 1 season. I know it happens but there is NOTHING better at the major league level for us so why not see what he can do. I can see small market clubs trying to save money but we should never be referenced as small market team. Edit - looks like June is the ideal month to bring up prospects because it means another year of arbitration and avoids the "super two" status. Castro in June would be ideal then and still give him 4 months to get seasoning.
I think the date varies player to player depending on how many days they play in the ML in previous seasons during September callups. But June of next season makes just as much sense if you say they're not in contention anyway right now.. And yeah I understand why you don't like it, but it's a reality. Especially in a case like Castro, where he's still only a couple of years off being drafted. It's very realistic to want him to be here in 2017 and beyond, so I could easily understand waiting until June 2011 unless they're in contention this year (whereas maybe you don't do this with a guy who has spent 4 years in the minors already because 7 years later with him, and you prob. don't even want him on a longterm deal)
Pence was called up on April 28, 2007. Brooks, I have question for you- do you think Astros made a mistake taking Castro especially knowing that Smoak was available when they were picking? I know at the time it seemed crazy to take a first baseman with Berkman there, but with it looking like this is the last year that Berkman will be here, Smoak could have been waiting in the wings.
The Mets called up Ike Davis today from the minors to help with their mess at 1st base, I think this is a good comparison to Castro with the Stros. I listen to NY radio quite a bit and they have been begging for this kid all Spring and with their awful 1st base situation so far this season it only made sense to bring him up. I don't think anyone really considered the Mets contenders either and they are willing to pull the trigger on this kid to see what happens. To be fair, Davis has hit very well this season in AAA and Castro has struggled a bit more so waiting a bit longer to see how Castro reacts would be okay but eventually, June, the Stros should at least consider looking at Castro over Towles and Q.
see, that's where I think it makes sense. You're a team that should be in contention. You have 1 big hole, and your prospect who is ready and hitting well at AAA will fill that hole. Pull the trigger, because it will plug the main hole in your team that is (in theory) postseason bound. Forget salary implications because you can win now. For the Astros, there are many holes to fill. Castro playing in the majors now does nothing for this season. So I think it makes sense to delay him, get him more minor league experience, and bring him up next year. And yes, if you wait till next year and the Astros are still nowhere near competing (that'll depend on the offseason and many other things between now and then), then you delay him until May or June or whatever.
Koby Clemens with another blast tonight, I hope he gets moved up to triple AAA as soon as he gets that avg up a bit. Not saying he will be anything at the big league level but his OPS is in the high .800, 5 hrs and 11 rbis so he must be doing something right.
