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[Official] Astros @ Brewers

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Castor27, Jul 30, 2012.

  1. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    If Wandy can get 3 seasons of 5.00+ era in the middle of contending years, Lyles definitely deserves a few seasons during lean years to sort himself out.
     
  2. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    I gotta nice chuckle out of this. Thanks.
     
  3. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    As far as Wade's "hitting machine" Brett Walrus goes, I think the best case is that he's a bench player for a few years on a decent team. Unlikely he can stick at 1st or make the transition to 3rd at this point. Pretty much a bust with limited value as an asset, which is obviously what we really need.

    Lyles has more upside for all the obvious reasons. Not all of us bought into that brief ace hype (which probably didn't extend much beyond this forum). Very few scouts and insiders projected him ever being that. It isn't impossible but I'd say the best case is that he lives up to his potential as a solid middle of the rotation type. Very possible he ends up being a fringe player or worse though. At least there is still the aforementioned upside and plenty of room for optimism, unlike with Wallace.
     
  4. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    How is that best case? Wally doesn't even have a full season of plate appearances spread across three seasons and he's only 25. I may be a little optimistic here but it's still too early to preclude him being a starter.

    So you're saying Lyles' ceiling is.... his ceiling. Way to dig deep there.

    What's up with all the writing off of these guys so early into their careers? Plenty of guys develop into all-star players several seasons into their careers, in fact most do. Wandy put up some of the worst seasons I've ever seen and he became a productive starter. Bourn was Kareem Jackson-level awful his first full season and became a 2x all-star.
     
  5. juicystream

    juicystream Contributing Member

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    Wallace could certainly be better than Chris Johnson, who was terrible defensively and an average offensive 3B.
     
  6. Travisss

    Travisss Member

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    At least the Astros aren't terrible! LOLOLOL
     
  7. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Not sure what you misinterpreted. I was saying more than that. I was indirectly referencing the earlier post about some people a while back starting to think Lyles was a future ace. I was saying that not everybody drew that conclusion and that his ceiling wasn't... his ceiling (according to that group, at least). It was, and still is, lower than that. I also said that it isn't impossible that he does somehow exceed expectations (a la a Wandy or any other example you wanna toss out of the rarest outliers where players find ways to work past their limitations).

    And, sure, that applies to Wallace and countless others if you wanna be exceedingly optimistic. Having said that, based on what I've seen of Wallace's swing, he will never have the bat to stick at 1B (to go along with a barely adequate to worse glove/arm) and doesn't have the defensive tools to make the transition to 3B, where he would've had a chance to perhaps be league average, overall, best case.

    And saying he could be better than CJ means diddly squat. CJ is garbage and wouldn't have even made it to this level in any but the worst system in baseball. We got a couple of fringe prospects for him. Yea, maybe we'll get something similar for Wallace (the supposed "hitting machine") down the line. I'd be glad to take it but what a crappy outlook compared to what people were hoping for out of him just a year and a half ago. CJ's run into a few to the delight of Zona fans but he'll either be hacking off the bench a year or two from now, or out of baseball. Subpar hitter and barely minor-league caliber defensively. Arizona was just that desperate after getting almost no production at 3B this season. CJ was a cheap, bottom-of-the-barrel pick up that they figured was better than nothing. Freakin' Geoff Blum was still on their 40-man just a bit ago! Nice first impression for CJ but that just sets Zona fans up for even more disappointment as they watch the regression at the plate and he costs them game or two with his glove/arm.
     
  8. crose

    crose Contributing Member

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    What a bizarre anti-Wallace rant.

    Not saying he is the answer long term, but when a 'former' high prospect has been raking at AAA and is then called up to be a part of a dismal team, I would think a positive reaction from just about everybody would be warranted.

    Did he bang your gal or something?
     
  9. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    Agree to disagree I guess. Baseball history is littered with top prospects who took a few seasons to work up a respectable level.
     
  10. BrooksBall

    BrooksBall Contributing Member

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    Well, I wouldn't think so.

    The larger body of work takes precedence given his age and shortcomings. As I said, anything is possible if that makes you feel warm and fuzzy but realistically, Wallace has had enough time and shown enough that there isn't much reason left to be optimistic that he will ever stick at 1B at this level.

    And to the earlier guy on Bourn becoming a 2x All-Star, let's remember a few things. First, he always had the elite glove and the elite speed and baserunning. He even had demonstrated some plate discipline at all levels. There were never any questions about certain tools. It all came down to being able to hit for average. That was it. He didn't need power.

    Secondly, his first AS selection came while he was on an earlier craptastic version of the Astros and let's not read too much into the AS tag as every team has to have at least one in baseball. Credit to Bourn for working hard and improving that one tool to go along with his pre-existing elite tools and becoming a legit everyday CFer at this level.

    Wallace, on the other hand, can only play one position at this level: 1B. It appears that 3B is out of the question at this point. And 1B is a position where you expect slugging, and a lot of it. He demonstrated tremendous on-base ability in college and transferred that to an extent as he climbed the ladder but that doesn't always transfer up to this level, as evidenced by some of the huge holes in his swing up to this point. It's highly unlikely that he ever becomes a plus slugger at this level to go along with that issue. Most likely, he doesn't even become average. And while he could show more of his on base skills in time, he won't become Nick Johnson either (a somewhat comparable player who can't stick himself). And his defense/arm is barely adequate to boot. So, you can't just throw names out there and say "see, he did this or that." There is more to it. Wallace and Bourn are not comparable for numerous reasons, most of which I just touched on.

    My question is what are you hoping for? That Wallace becomes our 1B of the future? By the time we're relevant, he'll be over 30, and likely not even in baseball. Plus, we likely have better and younger 1B options already in the system.

    Are you hoping for him to become an asset anywhere close to in line with what we thought we got? Again, highly unlikely. Do you think other teams will give up much given his track record? You think he's gonna suddenly hit 30-40 HRs next season? You think multiple teams will covet and start even a tiny bidding war over a subpar defensive, light-hitting 1B who has struggled repeatedly to stick on the Houston Astros. He isn't 22-years-old. There have been multiple and repeated serious signs of weaknesses as he enters his prime age. Clutch onto your optimist but at the very, very least, there is now enormous doubt about him within and across organizations. And it would take a level of consistency and improvement out of him that would greatly defy the odds at this point. Using random examples of "but player X did this or that" doesn't change the reality of this particular player at this particular position with these particular weaknesses with this limited skill set and versatility.

    Bottom line: Sure, Wallace may still turn out to be something less than the bust that I feel he likely is at this point. I understand the difficulty in projecting performance in this sport. But the odds of him, at this age, given what we've seen of him, becoming even an average overall major league 1B, forget even average, have greatly diminished from the already diminished point at which we acquired him. I'm not leaving out the small possibility that something magical happens but the way a lot of people seem to talk about too many players around here is as if there are a lot more Wandies and Bourns (for the lack of a better example at the moment) out there than there really are.
     
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  11. crose

    crose Contributing Member

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    Uhhh....calm down, Guy.

    He hasn't had a major league league level body of work to make a judgement on yet. His numbers THIS YEAR at the major league level are pretty damn good, though. Let's see what happens the rest of this year and next before we end his career, k?

    Also, what have you seen that makes you think he can't play third? Dude hasn't played there yet, unless you have been watching AAA. Apparently he was so bad there, they moved him to short.:rolleyes:

    Again, I am not saying that he is the long term answer, but the timing of your rant is odd. I mean, the dude hit 2 out today and that draws you out of hiding to bash him?......bizarre.
     
  12. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    dude, wtf. seriously? You clearly have some ax to grind with Wally.

    No one here was expecting Wally to be a 30-40hr kind of guy; at least not at this point. If he puts up .280 with 20hr and solid defense at 1B, which he's capable of, I consider him a success. That's roughly major league average for a first baseman. No one presumes he's the next Albie Pujols.

    I do have to point out: .280 and 20hr would be the best player on this current team. Low expectations? Sure. Doesn't mean it's not something to look forward to.

    Wally's got two plus tools: hitting and power. Neither are plus plus, but both rate as above average tools. Furthermore if both came around, you'd be staring at a .300/30 hr season. And you're completely overblowing his defensive problems at 1B. He's a former SS and 3B; he'll be more than adequate at 1B with time.

    You need to chill out bud. The inherent attractiveness of baseball prospects is eternal optimism. Is some of the shine off Wally? Definitely. Is this his last big chance? Probably. Is he done for? Not by a long shot.
     
  13. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    Many of us have not been big fans of Wallace and BrooksBall has been pretty down on him as well since we got him.
     
  14. crose

    crose Contributing Member

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    Many of us were gouging our eyes out watching the bloated carcass of Carlos Lee eating up payroll. That's over and the most logical short term replacement is performing pretty well so far so I don't see the logic in bitching about it. There are plenty of other dudes on this team to whine about. I nominate Cordero for the designated punching bag for the rest of the year.
     
  15. Travisss

    Travisss Member

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    Lol, damn Brooks. You're hella anti-Wally.
     
  16. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    Wallace was touted to us as a hitting machine. He's looked a lot more like an eating machine though he looks in better shape this year.
     
  17. crose

    crose Contributing Member

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    He has been hitting. Open your eyes.
     
  18. CometsWin

    CometsWin Breaker Breaker One Nine
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    So last year in 336 at bats he had a .703 OPS. He's only had 48 at bats this season, geez, but I'll get my MVP ballot out just in case!
     
  19. Joshfast

    Joshfast "We're all gonna die" - Billy Sole
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    fantastic post, thanks for the read!
     
  20. crose

    crose Contributing Member

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    Nobody is calling him an MVP, some of us just like to withhold judgement until someone has a significant body of work to base an opinion.

    528 career ABs is not enough, but those of us with eyeballs can see a significant improvement, which is promising.
     

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